Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia

The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma, as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3) concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3 concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH) were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each monitoring station

Causative factors of construction and demolition waste generation in Iraq Construction Industry

The construction industry has hurt the environment from the waste generated during construction activities. Thus, it calls for serious measures to determine the causative factors of construction waste generated. There are limited studies on factors causing construction, and demolition (C&D) waste generation, and these limited studies only focused on the quantification of construction waste. This study took the opportunity to identify the causative factors for the C&D waste generation and also to determine the risk level of each causal factor, and the most important minimization methods to avoiding generating waste. This study was carried out based on the quantitative approach. A total of 39 factors that causes construction waste generation that has been identified from the literature review were considered which were then clustered into 4 groups. Improved questionnaire surveys by 38 construction experts (consultants, contractors and clients) during the pilot study. The actual survey was conducted with a total of 380 questionnaires, received with a response rate of 83.3%. Data analysis was performed using SPSS software. Ranking analysis using the mean score approach found the five most significant causative factors which are poor site management, poor planning, lack of experience, rework and poor controlling. The result also indicated that the majority of the identified factors having a high-risk level, in addition, the better minimization method is environmental awareness. A structural model was developed based on the 4 groups of causative factors using the Partial Least Squared-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) technique. It was found that the model fits due to the goodness of fit (GOF ≥ 0.36= 0.658, substantial). Based on the outcome of this study, 39 factors were relevant to the generation of construction and demolition waste in Iraq. These groups of factors should be avoided during construction works to reduce the waste generated. The findings of this study are helpful to authorities and stakeholders in formulating laws and regulations. Furthermore, it provides opportunities for future researchers to conduct additional research’s on the factors that contribute to construction waste generation

Cuckoo Search Inspired Hybridization of the Nelder-Mead Simplex Algorithm Applied to Optimization of Photovoltaic Cells

A new hybridization of the Cuckoo Search (CS) is developed and applied to optimize multi-cell solar systems; namely multi-junction and split spectrum cells. The new approach consists of combining the CS with the Nelder-Mead method. More precisely, instead of using single solutions as nests for the CS, we use the concept of a simplex which is used in the Nelder-Mead algorithm. This makes it possible to use the flip operation introduces in the Nelder-Mead algorithm instead of the Levy flight which is a standard part of the CS. In this way, the hybridized algorithm becomes more robust and less sensitive to parameter tuning which exists in CS. The goal of our work was to optimize the performance of multi-cell solar systems. Although the underlying problem consists of the minimization of a function of a relatively small number of parameters, the difficulty comes from the fact that the evaluation of the function is complex and only a small number of evaluations is possible. In our test, we show that the new method has a better performance when compared to similar but more compex hybridizations of Nelder-Mead algorithm using genetic algorithms or particle swarm optimization on standard benchmark functions. Finally, we show that the new method outperforms some standard meta-heuristics for the problem of interest

Adaptation and parameters studies of CS algorithm for flow shop scheduling problem

Scheduling concerns the allocation of limited resources overtime to perform tasks to fulfill certain criterion and optimize one or several objective functions. One of the most popular models in scheduling theory is that of the flow-shop scheduling. During the last 40 years, the permutation flow-shop sequencing problem with the objective of makespan minimization has held the attraction of many researchers. This problem characterized as Fm/prmu/Cmax in the notation of Graham, involves the determination of the order of processing of n jobs on m machines. In addition, there was evidence that m-machine permutation flow-shop scheduling problem (PFSP) is strongly NP-hard for m ≥3. Due to this NP-hardness, many heuristic approaches have been proposed, this work falls within the framework of the scientific research, whose purpose is to study Cuckoo search algorithm. Also, the objective of this study is to adapt the cuckoo algorithm to a generalized permutation flow-shop problem for minimizing the total completion time, so the problem is denoted as follow: Fm | | Cmax. Simulation results are judged by the total completion time and algorithm run time for each instance processed

Modified cuckoo search algorithm for solving nonconvex economic load dispatch problems

This paper presents the application of modified cuckoo search algorithm (MCSA) for solving economic load dispatch (ELD) problems. The MCSA method is developed to improve the search ability and solution quality of the conventional CSA method. In the MCSA, the evaluation of eggs has divided the initial eggs into two groups, the top egg group with good quality and the abandoned group with worse quality. Moreover, the value of the updated step size in MCSA is adapted as generating a new solution for the abandoned group and the top group via the Levy flights so that a large zone is searched at the beginning and a local zone is foraged as the maximum number of iterations is nearly reached. The MCSA method has been tested on different systems with different characteristics of thermal units and constraints. The result comparison with other methods in the literature has indicated that the MCSA method can be a powerful method for solving the EL

Enhanced Cuckoo Search Algorithm for Virtual Machine Placement in Cloud Data Centers

In order to enhance resource utilisation and power efficiency in cloud data centres it is important to perform Virtual Machine (VM) placement in an optimal manner. VM placement uses the method of mapping virtual machines to physical machines (PM). Cloud computing researchers have recently introduced various meta-heuristic algorithms for VM placement considering the optimised energy consumption. However, these algorithms do not meet the optimal energy consumption requirements. This paper proposes an Enhanced Cuckoo Search (ECS) algorithm to address the issues with VM placement focusing on the energy consumption. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated using three different workloads in CloudSim tool. The evaluation process includes comparison of the proposed algorithm against the existing Genetic Algorithm (GA), Optimised Firefly Search (OFS) algorithm, and Ant Colony (AC) algorithm. The comparision results illustrate that the proposed ECS algorithm consumes less energy than the participant algorithms while maintaining a steady performance for SLA and VM migration. The ECS algorithm consumes around 25% less energy than GA, 27% less than OFS, and 26% less than AC

The Behaviour of Evolutionary Algorithms for the CFD-Driven Design Optimisation of Aerofoils

This thesis utilises aerodynamic shape optimisation software AerOpt and FLITE2D, to explore the behaviour of three Evolutionary Algorithms, Differential Evolution (DE), Modified Cuckoo Search (MCS), and Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO), to optimise a 2D nonsymmetric aerofoil, providing an evaluation of their aerodynamic optimising capabilities.The aerofoil used in test cases is the NACA21120, where a variation of control node approaches are utilised to alter the aerofoil’s geometry. In the first set of test cases, a control node is placed on the upper surface to allow the thickness to be altered, and in the second set of cases, six control nodes are arranged along the boundary of the aerofoil, to examine the overall shape change.A mesh convergence study helped to determine the best mesh settings for the given problem. Each algorithm is tested in a subsonic, transonic, and supersonic flow regime to ensure the test cases fulfil the CFD aspect of the research. All flow regimes were treated as viscous with the relevant Reynolds number applied. To provide an analysis on how tuning the input parameters affects the algorithm’s behaviour, the number of agents were inputted were varied from 10 to 50 to 99. The generations number was set to 99, and the fitness objective was to optimise for the lift-drag ratio (L/D), throughout all optimisations.The first set of results (one control node) found that fitness improvements were largest in the transonic cases, increasing the L/D by an average percentage of 213%. The aerofoil’s L/D at Mach 0.5 was improved by an average of 80%, and Mach 1.5 by 33%. Each algorithm showed a similar trend in which the control node was positioned at the final generation in the design space, this varied depending on the Mach number being optimised for, either resulting in an increase or decrease in the aerofoil thickness. Varying the number of agents inputted, had a more significant effect on MCS, whereas DE and PSO showed more consistent results regardless of the number of inputted agents. Generally, PSO displayed fastest convergence of all the agents, shortly followed by DE, followed by MCS.The second set of results (six control nodes) were optimised for identical input parameters but for simplicity, at a single flow regime, Mach 1.5. Differing from the first set of results showing similar control node placement within the design space, the second set of results showed the algorithm’s position some of the control nodes in different locations within the design space. Despite the similar fitness improvement values seen between DE and PSO, the final geometries were observed to be somewhat varied, where DE reduced the thickness of the trailing edge, but PSO increased it. MCS displayed similar geometry change to PSO but with more conservative control node movement