A deep learning approach to real-time parking occupancy prediction in spatio-temporal networks incorporating multiple spatio-temporal data sources

A deep learning model is applied for predicting block-level parking occupancy in real time. The model leverages Graph-Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNN) to extract the spatial relations of traffic flow in large-scale networks, and utilizes Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) with Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) to capture the temporal features. In addition, the model is capable of taking multiple heterogeneously structured traffic data sources as input, such as parking meter transactions, traffic speed, and weather conditions. The model performance is evaluated through a case study in Pittsburgh downtown area. The proposed model outperforms other baseline methods including multi-layer LSTM and Lasso with an average testing MAPE of 10.6\% when predicting block-level parking occupancies 30 minutes in advance. The case study also shows that, in generally, the prediction model works better for business areas than for recreational locations. We found that incorporating traffic speed and weather information can significantly improve the prediction performance. Weather data is particularly useful for improving predicting accuracy in recreational areas

Real time Traffic Flow Parameters Prediction with Basic Safety Messages at Low Penetration of Connected Vehicles

The expected low market penetration of connected vehicles (CVs) in the near future could be a constraint in estimating traffic flow parameters, such as average travel speed of a roadway segment and average space headway between vehicles from the CV broadcasted data. This estimated traffic flow parameters from low penetration of connected vehicles become noisy compared to 100 percent penetration of CVs, and such noise reduces the real time prediction accuracy of a machine learning model, such as the accuracy of long short term memory (LSTM) model in terms of predicting traffic flow parameters. The accurate prediction of the parameters is important for future traffic condition assessment. To improve the prediction accuracy using noisy traffic flow parameters, which is constrained by limited CV market penetration and limited CV data, we developed a real time traffic data prediction model that combines LSTM with Kalman filter based Rauch Tung Striebel (RTS) noise reduction model. We conducted a case study using the Enhanced Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) dataset, which contains vehicle trajectory data for every one tenth of a second, to evaluate the performance of this prediction model. Compared to a baseline LSTM model performance, for only 5 percent penetration of CVs, the analyses revealed that combined LSTM and RTS model reduced the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) from 19 percent to 5 percent for speed prediction and from 27 percent to 9 percent for space-headway prediction. The statistical significance test with a 95 percent confidence interval confirmed no significant difference in predicted average speed and average space headway using this LSTM and RTS combination with only 5 percent CV penetration rate.Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures, 4 table

Bayesian Particle Tracking of Traffic Flows

We develop a Bayesian particle filter for tracking traffic flows that is capable of capturing non-linearities and discontinuities present in flow dynamics. Our model includes a hidden state variable that captures sudden regime shifts between traffic free flow, breakdown and recovery. We develop an efficient particle learning algorithm for real time on-line inference of states and parameters. This requires a two step approach, first, resampling the current particles, with a mixture predictive distribution and second, propagation of states using the conditional posterior distribution. Particle learning of parameters follows from updating recursions for conditional sufficient statistics. To illustrate our methodology, we analyze measurements of daily traffic flow from the Illinois interstate I-55 highway system. We demonstrate how our filter can be used to inference the change of traffic flow regime on a highway road segment based on a measurement from freeway single-loop detectors. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research

Flow: A Modular Learning Framework for Autonomy in Traffic

The rapid development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) holds vast potential for transportation systems through improved safety, efficiency, and access to mobility. However, due to numerous technical, political, and human factors challenges, new methodologies are needed to design vehicles and transportation systems for these positive outcomes. This article tackles technical challenges arising from the partial adoption of autonomy: partial control, partial observation, complex multi-vehicle interactions, and the sheer variety of traffic settings represented by real-world networks. The article presents a modular learning framework which leverages deep Reinforcement Learning methods to address complex traffic dynamics. Modules are composed to capture common traffic phenomena (traffic jams, lane changing, intersections). Learned control laws are found to exceed human driving performance by at least 40% with only 5-10% adoption of AVs. In partially-observed single-lane traffic, a small neural network control law can eliminate stop-and-go traffic -- surpassing all known model-based controllers, achieving near-optimal performance, and generalizing to out-of-distribution traffic densities.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures; new experiments and analysi

Deep Learning for Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction

We develop a deep learning model to predict traffic flows. The main contribution is development of an architecture that combines a linear model that is fitted using $\ell_1$ regularization and a sequence of $\tanh$ layers. The challenge of predicting traffic flows are the sharp nonlinearities due to transitions between free flow, breakdown, recovery and congestion. We show that deep learning architectures can capture these nonlinear spatio-temporal effects. The first layer identifies spatio-temporal relations among predictors and other layers model nonlinear relations. We illustrate our methodology on road sensor data from Interstate I-55 and predict traffic flows during two special events; a Chicago Bears football game and an extreme snowstorm event. Both cases have sharp traffic flow regime changes, occurring very suddenly, and we show how deep learning provides precise short term traffic flow predictions

Self-Driving Cars: A Survey

We survey research on self-driving cars published in the literature focusing on autonomous cars developed since the DARPA challenges, which are equipped with an autonomy system that can be categorized as SAE level 3 or higher. The architecture of the autonomy system of self-driving cars is typically organized into the perception system and the decision-making system. The perception system is generally divided into many subsystems responsible for tasks such as self-driving-car localization, static obstacles mapping, moving obstacles detection and tracking, road mapping, traffic signalization detection and recognition, among others. The decision-making system is commonly partitioned as well into many subsystems responsible for tasks such as route planning, path planning, behavior selection, motion planning, and control. In this survey, we present the typical architecture of the autonomy system of self-driving cars. We also review research on relevant methods for perception and decision making. Furthermore, we present a detailed description of the architecture of the autonomy system of the self-driving car developed at the Universidade Federal do Esp\'irito Santo (UFES), named Intelligent Autonomous Robotics Automobile (IARA). Finally, we list prominent self-driving car research platforms developed by academia and technology companies, and reported in the media

Learning Traffic Flow Dynamics using Random Fields

This paper presents a mesoscopic traffic flow model that explicitly describes the spatio-temporal evolution of the probability distributions of vehicle trajectories. The dynamics are represented by a sequence of factor graphs, which enable learning of traffic dynamics from limited Lagrangian measurements using an efficient message passing technique. The approach ensures that estimated speeds and traffic densities are non-negative with probability one. The estimation technique is tested using vehicle trajectory datasets generated using an independent microscopic traffic simulator and is shown to efficiently reproduce traffic conditions with probe vehicle penetration levels as little as 10\%. The proposed algorithm is also compared with state-of-the-art traffic state estimation techniques developed for the same purpose and it is shown that the proposed approach can outperform the state-of-the-art techniques in terms reconstruction accuracy

Exploring applications of deep reinforcement learning for real-world autonomous driving systems

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) has become increasingly powerful in recent years, with notable achievements such as Deepmind's AlphaGo. It has been successfully deployed in commercial vehicles like Mobileye's path planning system. However, a vast majority of work on DRL is focused on toy examples in controlled synthetic car simulator environments such as TORCS and CARLA. In general, DRL is still at its infancy in terms of usability in real-world applications. Our goal in this paper is to encourage real-world deployment of DRL in various autonomous driving (AD) applications. We first provide an overview of the tasks in autonomous driving systems, reinforcement learning algorithms and applications of DRL to AD systems. We then discuss the challenges which must be addressed to enable further progress towards real-world deployment.Comment: Accepted for Oral Presentation at VISAPP 201

User-centric interdependent urban systems: using time-of-day electricity usage data to predict morning roadway congestion

Urban systems are interdependent as individuals' daily activities engage using those urban systems at certain time of day and locations. There may exist clear spatial and temporal correlations among usage patterns across all urban systems. This paper explores such a correlation among energy usage and roadway congestion. We propose a general framework to predict congestion starting time and congestion duration in the morning using the time-of-day electricity use data from anonymous households with no personally identifiable information. We show that using time-of-day electricity data from midnight to early morning from 322 households in the City of Austin, can make reliable prediction of congestion starting time of several highway segments, at the time as early as 2am. This predictor significantly outperforms a time-series predictor that uses only real-time travel time data up to 6am. We found that 8 out of the 10 typical electricity use patterns have statistically significant affects on morning congestion on highways in Austin. Some patterns have negative effects, represented by an early spike of electricity use followed by a drastic drop that could imply early departure from home. Others have positive effects, represented by a late night spike of electricity use possible implying late night activities that can lead to late morning departure from home

Deep Learning for Road Traffic Forecasting: Does it Make a Difference?

Deep Learning methods have been proven to be flexible to model complex phenomena. This has also been the case of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), in which several areas such as vehicular perception and traffic analysis have widely embraced Deep Learning as a core modeling technology. Particularly in short-term traffic forecasting, the capability of Deep Learning to deliver good results has generated a prevalent inertia towards using Deep Learning models, without examining in depth their benefits and downsides. This paper focuses on critically analyzing the state of the art in what refers to the use of Deep Learning for this particular ITS research area. To this end, we elaborate on the findings distilled from a review of publications from recent years, based on two taxonomic criteria. A posterior critical analysis is held to formulate questions and trigger a necessary debate about the issues of Deep Learning for traffic forecasting. The study is completed with a benchmark of diverse short-term traffic forecasting methods over traffic datasets of different nature, aimed to cover a wide spectrum of possible scenarios. Our experimentation reveals that Deep Learning could not be the best modeling technique for every case, which unveils some caveats unconsidered to date that should be addressed by the community in prospective studies. These insights reveal new challenges and research opportunities in road traffic forecasting, which are enumerated and discussed thoroughly, with the intention of inspiring and guiding future research efforts in this field.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures, 2 table