Temporal and spatial dynamics of willow grouse Lagopus lagopus

This study is a first attempt to analyze large-scale willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) population dynamics. In this thesis I studied the population dynamics of willow grouse in the Swedish mountain range. I estimated the scale of synchrony in both breeding success, and the adult segment between populations throughout the mountain range by using time-series of harvest data and population densities estimated from line transect counts. Little evidence of regular fluctuations/cycles in juveniles in autumn was found, and chick production in willow grouse appears to fluctuate more irregularly than was previously believed. Breeding success estimated as number of juveniles per two adults in autumn, showed a spatial correlation between sites up to 200 km apart, but there was no spatial correlation in the adult segment of the populations. When analyzing the presence and strength of time-lags in density dependent processes, a first order process was detected in the southernmost region, and a combination of weak first and second order processes in the northern part of the mountain range. There was a positive relationship between breeding success the previous year and the intrinsic rate of increase in the northernmost region where first and second order density dependence was weak and of equal strength. No such relationship was found in the southern region where density dependence was stronger and dominated by a first order process. Natal dispersal resulted in 80% of the juvenile females dispersing more than 5 km from their summer area, with a mean dispersal distance of 10.2 km, three times further than for juvenile males (3.4 km). Adult females were migratory between wintering areas used as a juvenile and their first breeding site. At landscape scales, only juvenile females and migratory adult females are important in exchange of individuals between populations. Hunters’ effort provided a useful relationship with harvest rate. Setting limits to the totally allowable effort within an area has a stronger potential for controlling harvest than daily bag limits or adjusting the length of the open season. Another simple harvest strategy would be to prohibit harvest in parts of the total area hunted. By setting aside a part of the total area as a buffer, and placing limits on the harvest effort in the open parts of the hunting area, it would be possible to achieve a cost-efficient system with a small risk of over-harvesting

Temporal contingencies associated with multiple anthropogenic disturbances in shallow marine assemblages

This thesis characterises the roles of indirect effects and temporal contingencies, which are events that have happened at some point in time and lead to one of many possible outcomes, on ecosystem level response to multiple potentially-interacting stressors. The assemblage response of a semi-natural marine food web to the interactive effects of warming, eutrophication and changing body size of a top predator was observed. The effects of minor nutrient enrichment are negligible and warming produces subtle responses, but the manipulation of top predator body size evokes a strong trophic cascade. This suggests that the long-term decreased body size effect of warming will be of greater ecological consequence than any short-term direct effects of higher temperature that may be experienced by individuals. The relative body size can explain much of the trophic interaction between predator and prey species. The absence of refugia down-shifts the size-structuring of the predator-prey relationship so that larger predators exert greater predation pressure on smaller prey. The effect of copper contamination on two successional stages of subtidal community assembly was examined. It was found that: (1) biofilms are sensitive to changes in copper concentration in the surrounding water column, irrespective of whether the changes involve exposure to or depuration from copper, and not just exposure to elevated copper concentrations per se and; (2) invertebrate assemblages respond to increased exposure to copper from the surrounding water column. This suggests that benthic invertebrate settlement is robust to the indirect effect of copper-induced changes in biofilm communities, but not to the direct toxic effect of copper itself. This work highlights the importance of temporal contingencies including legacy effects, ecological history and the coincidence of random events for identification of the mechanisms in community assembly

Supporting engineering design using knowledge based systems technology with a case study in electricity distribution network design

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.This thesis explores the architectural requirements of engineering design support systems based on knowledge based systems technology. The exploration is based on an understanding of the nature of designing as a professional activity and on the extent to which designers' competence can be modelled. Attention is focused on certain salient aspects of designers' competent behaviour. The theoretical study leads to the specification of requirements to be satisfied by a knowledge based system which will support designers in their professional setting and to the proposal of some knowledge based system components which will meet the requirements identified. The theoretical aspect of the thesis is complemented by a case study based on a designer of high voltage electricity distribution networks. The case study illustrates the theoretical component of the thesis and the methodological basis for the work. The practical realizability of the components of the knowledge based systems architecture proposed are demonstrated using the results of the analysis of the knowledge elicited in the case study without prejudicing the general applicability of the ideas. An object-oriented knowledge engineering software development environment is used to demonstrate how some components of the design situation represented can be implemented.Financial support provided by Brunel University

The Stylometric Processing of Sensory Open Source Data

This research project’s end goal is on the Lone Wolf Terrorist. The project uses an exploratory approach to the self-radicalisation problem by creating a stylistic fingerprint of a person's personality, or self, from subtle characteristics hidden in a person's writing style. It separates the identity of one person from another based on their writing style. It also separates the writings of suicide attackers from ‘normal' bloggers by critical slowing down; a dynamical property used to develop early warning signs of tipping points. It identifies changes in a person's moods, or shifts from one state to another, that might indicate a tipping point for self-radicalisation. Research into authorship identity using personality is a relatively new area in the field of neurolinguistics. There are very few methods that model how an individual's cognitive functions present themselves in writing. Here, we develop a novel algorithm, RPAS, which draws on cognitive functions such as aging, sensory processing, abstract or concrete thinking through referential activity emotional experiences, and a person's internal gender for identity. We use well-known techniques such as Principal Component Analysis, Linear Discriminant Analysis, and the Vector Space Method to cluster multiple anonymous-authored works. Here we use a new approach, using seriation with noise to separate subtle features in individuals. We conduct time series analysis using modified variants of 1-lag autocorrelation and the coefficient of skewness, two statistical metrics that change near a tipping point, to track serious life events in an individual through cognitive linguistic markers. In our journey of discovery, we uncover secrets about the Elizabethan playwrights hidden for over 400 years. We uncover markers for depression and anxiety in modern-day writers and identify linguistic cues for Alzheimer's disease much earlier than other studies using sensory processing. In using these techniques on the Lone Wolf, we can separate their writing style used before their attacks that differs from other writing

Expert systems in management accountancy

Expert systems in management accountanc

Understanding modes of dwelling: A transdisciplinary approach to phenomenology of landscape

This transdisciplinary PhD addresses the research question: Can some form of phenomenology provide an effective over-arching paradigm for transdisciplinary research in ethnophysiography? Ethnophysiography studies the way people within a language community conceptualise natural landscape, including terms for landscape features and toponyms (placenames). Dwelling involves conceptualisations and affects regarding physical, utilitarian, cultural, spiritual and ethical relationships with landscape. A key achievement is development of an enhanced ethnophysiography case study methodology, supporting the Ethnophysiography Descriptive Model (EDM). Summary phenomenographic tables were prepared from literature reviews of ethnophysiography, transdisciplinarity, phenomenology, concepts of place and relationships with place. The use of tables, summarising key results of literature reviews (via a phenomenographic approach), is integral to the methodology, to operationalize transdisciplinarity. Some tables are utilised in the PTM-ECS, facilitating identification of relevant issues, collection of appropriate data, and hermeneutic analysis processes. To facilitate comparison of landscape terms and toponyms between languages, the EDM was developed and tested. A key contribution is interpretation of the phenomenological concepts of ‘lifeworld’, ‘topology’ and ‘habitus’. Creation of landscape, as place, involves synergistic integration, in a non-deterministic and emergent manner, of the physical attributes of an area of topographic environment (terrain and ecosystem) with the socio-cultural characteristics of a group of people (including linguistic and spiritual aspects). This produces a particular topo-socio-cultural-spiritual mode-of-dwelling (topology). A partial trial of the new methodology is provided, via an ethnophysiography case study with Manyjilyjarra Aboriginal people in Australia’s Western Desert (undertaken by this author with linguist Clair Hill). It demonstrates how the adopted approach facilitates understanding of traditional forms of dwelling and how this relates to Jukurrpa (The Dreaming), the law, lore and social structure of their society. Review of research processes indicates they effectively utilised key features of transdisciplinarity. A summary of the findings, their potential application, a statement of research limitations, and proposals for further research, are provided