Forecasting methods in energy planning models

Energy planning models (EPMs) play an indispensable role in policy formulation and energy sector development. The forecasting of energy demand and supply is at the heart of an EPM. Different forecasting methods, from statistical to machine learning have been applied in the past. The selection of a forecasting method is mostly based on data availability and the objectives of the tool and planning exercise. We present a systematic and critical review of forecasting methods used in 483 EPMs. The methods were analyzed for forecasting accuracy; applicability for temporal and spatial predictions; and relevance to planning and policy objectives. Fifty different forecasting methods have been identified. Artificial neural network (ANN) is the most widely used method, which is applied in 40% of the reviewed EPMs. The other popular methods, in descending order, are: support vector machine (SVM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fuzzy logic (FL), linear regression (LR), genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), grey prediction (GM) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). In terms of accuracy, computational intelligence (CI) methods demonstrate better performance than that of the statistical ones, in particular for parameters with greater variability in the source data. However, hybrid methods yield better accuracy than that of the stand-alone ones. Statistical methods are useful for only short and medium range, while CI methods are preferable for all temporal forecasting ranges (short, medium and long). Based on objective, most EPMs focused on energy demand and load forecasting. In terms geographical coverage, the highest number of EPMs were developed on China. However, collectively, more models were established for the developed countries than the developing ones. Findings would benefit researchers and professionals in gaining an appreciation of the forecasting methods, and enable them to select appropriate method(s) to meet their needs

Decarbonization cost of Bangladesh's energy sector: Influence of corruption

As a rapidly developing lower-middle income country, Bangladesh has been maintaining a steady growth of +5% in the gross domestic product (GDP) annually since 2004, eventually reaching 7.1% in 2016. The country is targeting to become uppermiddle- income and developed by 2021 and 2041 respectively, which translates to an annual GDP growth rate of 7.58% during this period. The bulk of this growth is expected to come from the manufacturing sector, the significant shift towards which started at the turn of this century. Energy intensity of manufacturing-based growth is higher, the evidence of which can be seen in the 3.17 times increase in national energy consumption between 2001 and 2014. Also, Bangladesh aims to achieve 100% electrification rate by 2021 against an annual population growth rate of 1.08%. With the increasing per capita income, there is now a growing middle class fuelling the growth in demand for convenient forms of energy. Considering the above drivers, the Bangladesh 2050 Pathways Model suggested 35 times higher energy demand than that of 2010 by 2050. The government and private sector have started a substantial amount of investments in the energy sector to meet the signi ficant future demand. Approximately US$104 billion would be invested in the power sector of Bangladesh for establishing 33 GW installed capacity by 2030, the majority of which would be financed by national and international loans. However, Bangladesh is one of the most corrupted country in the world which may influence the energy planning development. The current policies of Bangladesh power sector paved the future direction towards predominantly coal-based energy mix which would augment the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions five times (117.5 MtCO2e) in 2030 than that of 2010. By increasing GHG emissions, the country would undermine the worldwide effort of keeping global temperature rise in 21st century below 2°C, as per the Paris agreement and COP21. V The objective of this research was to develop a framework to explore the cost of decarbonizing the Bangladesh's energy sector by 2050. For the study, six emissions scenarios business as usual (BAU), current policy (CPS), high-carbon (HCS), medium-carbon (MCS), low-carbon (LCS) and zero-carbon scenarios (ZCS), and three economic conditions high, average and low costwere considered. The combination of emissions and economic scenarios rendered 18 different emissionseconomic scenarios for the research. The results showed that Bangladesh would emit 343 MtCO2e by 2050 without any emissions reduction strategies under HCS. However, Bangladesh can reduce 23 of HCS by adopting decarbonization strategies such as energy mix change towards renewable and nuclear. On the optimistic side, the emissions can be reduced 73 by 2050 under ZCS than that of HCS. The study demonstrated that a zero carbon future is not yet feasible for Bangladesh by 2050 because the operational fossil fuel based plants would be operational. Therefore, the GHG emissions are going to rise even if Bangladesh adopts renewables and nuclear dominating energy mix. However, it will be possible to keep the GHG emissions approximately 2 tCO2e/capita threshold if the country adopts LCS. On the other hand, only MCS and LCS can meet the projected energy demand by 2050. The energy sector can meet the projected demand under ZCS only if the electricity consumption is reduced 26 2050. In terms total cost, the MCS was found to be 3.9 LCS by 2050. LCS would have a higher cost than that of MCS up to 2030, due to the high capital cost of renewable technologies. The total cost under LCS would start to be lower than of MCS after 2035 for the fossil fuel cost. Accumulated fuel cost would reach$250 billion in 2050 under HCS, which can be reduced 23% under ZCS. The cost of decarbonization would be 3.6, 3.4 and 3.2 times under average cost of MCS, LCS, and ZCS, than that of HCS. As the energy sector of Bangladesh is under rapid development, the accumulated capital would be comparatively high by 2050. However, fuel cost can be significantly reduced under LCS and ZCS which would also ensure lower emissions. The study suggested that energy mix change, technological maturity, corruption and demand reduction can influence the cost of decarbonization. However, the most significant influencer for the decarbonization of Bangladeshi energy sector would be the corruption. Results showed that if Bangladesh can minimize the effect of corruption on the energy sector, it can reduce the cost of decarbonization 45-77% by 2050 under MCS, LCS, and ZCS

Energy management in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: recent progress and a connected vehicles perspective

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) offer an immediate solution for emissions reduction and fuel displacement within the current infrastructure. Targeting PHEV powertrain optimization, a plethora of energy management strategies (EMSs) have been proposed. Although these algorithms present various levels of complexity and accuracy, they find a limitation in terms of availability of future trip information, which generally prevents exploitation of the full PHEV potential in real-life cycles. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of EMS evolution toward blended mode (BM) and optimal control, providing a thorough survey of the latest progress in optimization-based algorithms. This is performed in the context of connected vehicles and highlights certain contributions that intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), traffic information, and cloud computing can provide to enhance PHEV energy management. The study is culminated with an analysis of future trends in terms of optimization algorithm development, optimization criteria, PHEV integration in the smart grid, and vehicles as part of the fleet

IoT and Sensor Networks in Industry and Society

The exponential progress of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is one of the main elements that fueled the acceleration of the globalization pace. Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and big data analytics are some of the key players of the digital transformation that is affecting every aspect of human's daily life, from environmental monitoring to healthcare systems, from production processes to social interactions. In less than 20 years, people's everyday life has been revolutionized, and concepts such as Smart Home, Smart Grid and Smart City have become familiar also to non-technical users. The integration of embedded systems, ubiquitous Internet access, and Machine-to-Machine (M2M) communications have paved the way for paradigms such as IoT and Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) to be also introduced in high-requirement environments such as those related to industrial processes, under the forms of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT or I2oT) and Cyber-Physical Production Systems (CPPS). As a consequence, in 2011 the German High-Tech Strategy 2020 Action Plan for Germany first envisioned the concept of Industry 4.0, which is rapidly reshaping traditional industrial processes. The term refers to the promise to be the fourth industrial revolution. Indeed, the first industrial revolution was triggered by water and steam power. Electricity and assembly lines enabled mass production in the second industrial revolution. In the third industrial revolution, the introduction of control automation and Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) gave a boost to factory production. As opposed to the previous revolutions, Industry 4.0 takes advantage of Internet access, M2M communications, and deep learning not only to improve production efficiency but also to enable the so-called mass customization, i.e. the mass production of personalized products by means of modularized product design and flexible processes. Less than five years later, in January 2016, the Japanese 5th Science and Technology Basic Plan took a further step by introducing the concept of Super Smart Society or Society 5.0. According to this vision, in the upcoming future, scientific and technological innovation will guide our society into the next social revolution after the hunter-gatherer, agrarian, industrial, and information eras, which respectively represented the previous social revolutions. Society 5.0 is a human-centered society that fosters the simultaneous achievement of economic, environmental and social objectives, to ensure a high quality of life to all citizens. This information-enabled revolution aims to tackle today’s major challenges such as an ageing population, social inequalities, depopulation and constraints related to energy and the environment. Accordingly, the citizens will be experiencing impressive transformations into every aspect of their daily lives. This book offers an insight into the key technologies that are going to shape the future of industry and society. It is subdivided into five parts: the I Part presents a horizontal view of the main enabling technologies, whereas the II-V Parts offer a vertical perspective on four different environments. The I Part, dedicated to IoT and Sensor Network architectures, encompasses three Chapters. In Chapter 1, Peruzzi and Pozzebon analyse the literature on the subject of energy harvesting solutions for IoT monitoring systems and architectures based on Low-Power Wireless Area Networks (LPWAN). The Chapter does not limit the discussion to Long Range Wise Area Network (LoRaWAN), SigFox and Narrowband-IoT (NB-IoT) communication protocols, but it also includes other relevant solutions such as DASH7 and Long Term Evolution MAchine Type Communication (LTE-M). In Chapter 2, Hussein et al. discuss the development of an Internet of Things message protocol that supports multi-topic messaging. The Chapter further presents the implementation of a platform, which integrates the proposed communication protocol, based on Real Time Operating System. In Chapter 3, Li et al. investigate the heterogeneous task scheduling problem for data-intensive scenarios, to reduce the global task execution time, and consequently reducing data centers' energy consumption. The proposed approach aims to maximize the efficiency by comparing the cost between remote task execution and data migration. The II Part is dedicated to Industry 4.0, and includes two Chapters. In Chapter 4, Grecuccio et al. propose a solution to integrate IoT devices by leveraging a blockchain-enabled gateway based on Ethereum, so that they do not need to rely on centralized intermediaries and third-party services. As it is better explained in the paper, where the performance is evaluated in a food-chain traceability application, this solution is particularly beneficial in Industry 4.0 domains. Chapter 5, by De Fazio et al., addresses the issue of safety in workplaces by presenting a smart garment that integrates several low-power sensors to monitor environmental and biophysical parameters. This enables the detection of dangerous situations, so as to prevent or at least reduce the consequences of workers accidents. The III Part is made of two Chapters based on the topic of Smart Buildings. In Chapter 6, Petroșanu et al. review the literature about recent developments in the smart building sector, related to the use of supervised and unsupervised machine learning models of sensory data. The Chapter poses particular attention on enhanced sensing, energy efficiency, and optimal building management. In Chapter 7, Oh examines how much the education of prosumers about their energy consumption habits affects power consumption reduction and encourages energy conservation, sustainable living, and behavioral change, in residential environments. In this Chapter, energy consumption monitoring is made possible thanks to the use of smart plugs. Smart Transport is the subject of the IV Part, including three Chapters. In Chapter 8, Roveri et al. propose an approach that leverages the small world theory to control swarms of vehicles connected through Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication protocols. Indeed, considering a queue dominated by short-range car-following dynamics, the Chapter demonstrates that safety and security are increased by the introduction of a few selected random long-range communications. In Chapter 9, Nitti et al. present a real time system to observe and analyze public transport passengers' mobility by tracking them throughout their journey on public transport vehicles. The system is based on the detection of the active Wi-Fi interfaces, through the analysis of Wi-Fi probe requests. In Chapter 10, Miler et al. discuss the development of a tool for the analysis and comparison of efficiency indicated by the integrated IT systems in the operational activities undertaken by Road Transport Enterprises (RTEs). The authors of this Chapter further provide a holistic evaluation of efficiency of telematics systems in RTE operational management. The book ends with the two Chapters of the V Part on Smart Environmental Monitoring. In Chapter 11, He et al. propose a Sea Surface Temperature Prediction (SSTP) model based on time-series similarity measure, multiple pattern learning and parameter optimization. In this strategy, the optimal parameters are determined by means of an improved Particle Swarm Optimization method. In Chapter 12, Tsipis et al. present a low-cost, WSN-based IoT system that seamlessly embeds a three-layered cloud/fog computing architecture, suitable for facilitating smart agricultural applications, especially those related to wildfire monitoring. We wish to thank all the authors that contributed to this book for their efforts. We express our gratitude to all reviewers for the volunteering support and precious feedback during the review process. We hope that this book provides valuable information and spurs meaningful discussion among researchers, engineers, businesspeople, and other experts about the role of new technologies into industry and society

Dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users

[EN] The electricity sector is currently undergoing a process of liberalization and separation of roles, which is being implemented under the regulatory auspices of each Member State of the European Union and, therefore, with different speeds, perspectives and objectives that must converge on a common horizon, where Europe will benefit from an interconnected energy market in which producers and consumers can participate in free competition. This process of liberalization and separation of roles involves two consequences or, viewed another way, entails a major consequence from which other immediate consequence, as a necessity, is derived. The main consequence is the increased complexity in the management and supervision of a system, the electrical, increasingly interconnected and participatory, with connection of distributed energy sources, much of them from renewable sources, at different voltage levels and with different generation capacity at any point in the network. From this situation the other consequence is derived, which is the need to communicate information between agents, reliably, safely and quickly, and that this information is analyzed in the most effective way possible, to form part of the processes of decision taking that improve the observability and controllability of a system which is increasing in complexity and number of agents involved. With the evolution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), and the investments both in improving existing measurement and communications infrastructure, and taking the measurement and actuation capacity to a greater number of points in medium and low voltage networks, the availability of data that informs of the state of the network is increasingly higher and more complete. All these systems are part of the so-called Smart Grids, or intelligent networks of the future, a future which is not so far. One such source of information comes from the energy consumption of customers, measured on a regular basis (every hour, half hour or quarter-hour) and sent to the Distribution System Operators from the Smart Meters making use of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). This way, there is an increasingly amount of information on the energy consumption of customers, being stored in Big Data systems. This growing source of information demands specialized techniques which can take benefit from it, extracting a useful and summarized knowledge from it. This thesis deals with the use of this information of energy consumption from Smart Meters, in particular on the application of data mining techniques to obtain temporal patterns that characterize the users of electrical energy, grouping them according to these patterns in a small number of groups or clusters, that allow evaluating how users consume energy, both during the day and during a sequence of days, allowing to assess trends and predict future scenarios. For this, the current techniques are studied and, proving that the current works do not cover this objective, clustering or dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users are developed. These techniques are tested and validated on a database of hourly energy consumption values for a sample of residential customers in Spain during years 2008 and 2009. The results allow to observe both the characterization in consumption patterns of the different types of residential energy consumers, and their evolution over time, and to assess, for example, how the regulatory changes that occurred in Spain in the electricity sector during those years influenced in the temporal patterns of energy consumption.[ES] El sector eléctrico se halla actualmente sometido a un proceso de liberalización y separación de roles, que está siendo aplicado bajo los auspicios regulatorios de cada Estado Miembro de la Unión Europea y, por tanto, con distintas velocidades, perspectivas y objetivos que deben confluir en un horizonte común, en donde Europa se beneficiará de un mercado energético interconectado, en el cual productores y consumidores podrán participar en libre competencia. Este proceso de liberalización y separación de roles conlleva dos consecuencias o, visto de otra manera, conlleva una consecuencia principal de la cual se deriva, como necesidad, otra consecuencia inmediata. La consecuencia principal es el aumento de la complejidad en la gestión y supervisión de un sistema, el eléctrico, cada vez más interconectado y participativo, con conexión de fuentes distribuidas de energía, muchas de ellas de origen renovable, a distintos niveles de tensión y con distinta capacidad de generación, en cualquier punto de la red. De esta situación se deriva la otra consecuencia, que es la necesidad de comunicar información entre los distintos agentes, de forma fiable, segura y rápida, y que esta información sea analizada de la forma más eficaz posible, para que forme parte de los procesos de toma de decisiones que mejoran la observabilidad y controlabilidad de un sistema cada vez más complejo y con más agentes involucrados. Con el avance de las Tecnologías de Información y Comunicaciones (TIC), y las inversiones tanto en mejora de la infraestructura existente de medida y comunicaciones, como en llevar la obtención de medidas y la capacidad de actuación a un mayor número de puntos en redes de media y baja tensión, la disponibilidad de datos sobre el estado de la red es cada vez mayor y más completa. Todos estos sistemas forman parte de las llamadas Smart Grids, o redes inteligentes del futuro, un futuro ya no tan lejano. Una de estas fuentes de información proviene de los consumos energéticos de los clientes, medidos de forma periódica (cada hora, media hora o cuarto de hora) y enviados hacia las Distribuidoras desde los contadores inteligentes o Smart Meters, mediante infraestructura avanzada de medida o Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). De esta forma, cada vez se tiene una mayor cantidad de información sobre los consumos energéticos de los clientes, almacenada en sistemas de Big Data. Esta cada vez mayor fuente de información demanda técnicas especializadas que sepan aprovecharla, extrayendo un conocimiento útil y resumido de la misma. La presente Tesis doctoral versa sobre el uso de esta información de consumos energéticos de los contadores inteligentes, en concreto sobre la aplicación de técnicas de minería de datos (data mining) para obtener patrones temporales que caractericen a los usuarios de energía eléctrica, agrupándolos según estos mismos patrones en un número reducido de grupos o clusters, que permiten evaluar la forma en que los usuarios consumen la energía, tanto a lo largo del día como durante una secuencia de días, permitiendo evaluar tendencias y predecir escenarios futuros. Para ello se estudian las técnicas actuales y, comprobando que los trabajos actuales no cubren este objetivo, se desarrollan técnicas de clustering o segmentación dinámica aplicadas a curvas de carga de consumo eléctrico diario de clientes domésticos. Estas técnicas se prueban y validan sobre una base de datos de consumos energéticos horarios de una muestra de clientes residenciales en España durante los años 2008 y 2009. Los resultados permiten observar tanto la caracterización en consumos de los distintos tipos de consumidores energéticos residenciales, como su evolución en el tiempo, y permiten evaluar, por ejemplo, cómo influenciaron en los patrones temporales de consumos los cambios regulatorios que se produjeron en España en el sector eléctrico durante esos años.[CA] El sector elèctric es troba actualment sotmès a un procés de liberalització i separació de rols, que s'està aplicant davall els auspicis reguladors de cada estat membre de la Unió Europea i, per tant, amb distintes velocitats, perspectives i objectius que han de confluir en un horitzó comú, on Europa es beneficiarà d'un mercat energètic interconnectat, en el qual productors i consumidors podran participar en lliure competència. Aquest procés de liberalització i separació de rols comporta dues conseqüències o, vist d'una altra manera, comporta una conseqüència principal de la qual es deriva, com a necessitat, una altra conseqüència immediata. La conseqüència principal és l'augment de la complexitat en la gestió i supervisió d'un sistema, l'elèctric, cada vegada més interconnectat i participatiu, amb connexió de fonts distribuïdes d'energia, moltes d'aquestes d'origen renovable, a distints nivells de tensió i amb distinta capacitat de generació, en qualsevol punt de la xarxa. D'aquesta situació es deriva l'altra conseqüència, que és la necessitat de comunicar informació entre els distints agents, de forma fiable, segura i ràpida, i que aquesta informació siga analitzada de la manera més eficaç possible, perquè forme part dels processos de presa de decisions que milloren l'observabilitat i controlabilitat d'un sistema cada vegada més complex i amb més agents involucrats. Amb l'avanç de les tecnologies de la informació i les comunicacions (TIC), i les inversions, tant en la millora de la infraestructura existent de mesura i comunicacions, com en el trasllat de l'obtenció de mesures i capacitat d'actuació a un nombre més gran de punts en xarxes de mitjana i baixa tensió, la disponibilitat de dades sobre l'estat de la xarxa és cada vegada major i més completa. Tots aquests sistemes formen part de les denominades Smart Grids o xarxes intel·ligents del futur, un futur ja no tan llunyà. Una d'aquestes fonts d'informació prové dels consums energètics dels clients, mesurats de forma periòdica (cada hora, mitja hora o quart d'hora) i enviats cap a les distribuïdores des dels comptadors intel·ligents o Smart Meters, per mitjà d'infraestructura avançada de mesura o Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). D'aquesta manera, cada vegada es té una major quantitat d'informació sobre els consums energètics dels clients, emmagatzemada en sistemes de Big Data. Aquesta cada vegada major font d'informació demanda tècniques especialitzades que sàpiguen aprofitar-la, extraient-ne un coneixement útil i resumit. La present tesi doctoral versa sobre l'ús d'aquesta informació de consums energètics dels comptadors intel·ligents, en concret sobre l'aplicació de tècniques de mineria de dades (data mining) per a obtenir patrons temporals que caracteritzen els usuaris d'energia elèctrica, agrupant-los segons aquests mateixos patrons en una quantitat reduïda de grups o clusters, que permeten avaluar la forma en què els usuaris consumeixen l'energia, tant al llarg del dia com durant una seqüència de dies, i que permetent avaluar tendències i predir escenaris futurs. Amb aquesta finalitat, s'estudien les tècniques actuals i, en comprovar que els treballs actuals no cobreixen aquest objectiu, es desenvolupen tècniques de clustering o segmentació dinàmica aplicades a corbes de càrrega de consum elèctric diari de clients domèstics. Aquestes tècniques es proven i validen sobre una base de dades de consums energètics horaris d'una mostra de clients residencials a Espanya durant els anys 2008 i 2009. Els resultats permeten observar tant la caracterització en consums dels distints tipus de consumidors energètics residencials, com la seua evolució en el temps, i permeten avaluar, per exemple, com van influenciar en els patrons temporals de consums els canvis reguladors que es van produir a Espanya en el sector elèctric durant aquests anys.Benítez Sánchez, IJ. (2015). Dynamic segmentation techniques applied to load profiles of electric energy consumption from domestic users [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/59236TESI

Real Time Dynamic State Estimation: Development and Application to Power System

Since the state estimation algorithm has been firstly proposed, considerable research interest has been shown in adapting and applying the different versions of this algorithm to the power transmission systems. Those applications include power system state estimation (PSSE) and short-term operational planning. In the transmission level, state estimation offers various applications including, process monitoring and security monitoring. Recently, distribution systems experience a much higher level of variability and complexity due to the large increase in the penetration level of distributed energy resources (DER), such as distributed generation (DG), demand-responsive loads, and storage devices. The first step, for better situational awareness at the distribution level, is to adapt the most developed real time state estimation algorithm to distribution systems, including distribution system state estimation (DSSE). DSSE has an important role in the operation of the distribution systems. Motivated by the increasing need for robust and accurate real time state estimators, capable of capturing the dynamics of system states and suitable for large-scale distribution networks with a lack of sensors, this thesis introduces a three state estimators based on a distributed approach. The first proposed estimator technique is the square root cubature Kalman filter (SCKF), which is the improved version of cubature Kalman filter (CKF). The second one is based on a combination of the particle filter (PF) and the SCKF, which yields a square root cubature particle filter (SCPF). This technique employs a PF with the proposal distribution provided by the SCKF. Additionally, a combination of PF and CKF, which yields a cubature particle filter (CPF) is proposed. Unlike the other types of filters, the PF is a non-Gaussian algorithm from which a true posterior distribution of the estimated states can be obtained. This permits the replacement of real measurements with pseudo-measurements and allows the calculation to be applied to large-scale networks with a high degree of nonlinearity. This research also provides a comparison study between the above mentioned algorithms and the latest algorithms available in the literature. To validate their robustness and accuracy, the proposed methods were tested and verified using a large range of customer loads with 50 % uncertainty on a connected IEEE 123-bus system. Next, a developed foretasted aided state estimator is proposed. The foretasted aided state estimator is needed to increase the immunization of the state estimator against the delay and loss of the real measurements, due to the sensors malfunction or communication failure. Moreover, due to the lack of measurements in the electrical distribution system, the pseudo-measurements are needed to insure the observability of the state estimator. Therefore, the very short term load forecasting algorithm that insures the observability and provides reliable backup data in case of sensor malfunction or communication failure is proposed. The proposed very short term load forecasting is based on the wavelet recurrent neural network (WRNN). The historical data used to train the RNN are decomposed into low-frequency, low-high frequency and high frequency components. The neural networks are trained using an extended Kalman filter (EKF) for the low frequency component and using a square root cubature Kalman filter (SCKF) for both low-high frequency and high frequency components. To estimate the system states, state estimation algorithm based SCKF is used. The results demonstrate the theoretical and practical advantages of the proposed methodology. Finally, in recent years several cyber-attacks have been recorded against sensitive monitoring systems. Among them is the automatic generation control (AGC) system, a fundamental control system used in all power networks to keep the network frequency at its desired value and for maintaining tie line power exchanges at their scheduled values. Motivated by the increasing need for robust and safe operation of AGCs, this thesis introduces an attack resilient control scheme for the AGC system based on attack detection using real time state estimation. The proposed approach requires redundancy of sensors available at the transmission level in the power network and leverages recent results on attack detection using mixed integer linear programming (MILP). The proposed algorithm detects and identifies the sensors under attack in the presence of noise. The non-attacked sensors are then averaged and made available to the feedback controller. No assumptions about the nature of the attack signal are made. The proposed method is simulated using a large range of attack signals and uncertain sensors measurements. All the proposed algorithms were implemented in MATLAB to verify their theoretical expectations

Advanced Process Monitoring for Industry 4.0

This book reports recent advances on Process Monitoring (PM) to cope with the many challenges raised by the new production systems, sensors and “extreme data” conditions that emerged with Industry 4.0. Concepts such as digital-twins and deep learning are brought to the PM arena, pushing forward the capabilities of existing methodologies to handle more complex scenarios. The evolution of classical paradigms such as Latent Variable modeling, Six Sigma and FMEA are also covered. Applications span a wide range of domains such as microelectronics, semiconductors, chemicals, materials, agriculture, as well as the monitoring of rotating equipment, combustion systems and membrane separation processes

Interconnected Services for Time-Series Data Management in Smart Manufacturing Scenarios

xvii, 218 p.The rise of Smart Manufacturing, together with the strategic initiatives carried out worldwide, have promoted its adoption among manufacturers who are increasingly interested in boosting data-driven applications for different purposes, such as product quality control, predictive maintenance of equipment, etc. However, the adoption of these approaches faces diverse technological challenges with regard to the data-related technologies supporting the manufacturing data life-cycle. The main contributions of this dissertation focus on two specific challenges related to the early stages of the manufacturing data life-cycle: an optimized storage of the massive amounts of data captured during the production processes and an efficient pre-processing of them. The first contribution consists in the design and development of a system that facilitates the pre-processing task of the captured time-series data through an automatized approach that helps in the selection of the most adequate pre-processing techniques to apply to each data type. The second contribution is the design and development of a three-level hierarchical architecture for time-series data storage on cloud environments that helps to manage and reduce the required data storage resources (and consequently its associated costs). Moreover, with regard to the later stages, a thirdcontribution is proposed, that leverages advanced data analytics to build an alarm prediction system that allows to conduct a predictive maintenance of equipment by anticipating the activation of different types of alarms that can be produced on a real Smart Manufacturing scenario

A Survey on Reservoir Computing and its Interdisciplinary Applications Beyond Traditional Machine Learning

Reservoir computing (RC), first applied to temporal signal processing, is a recurrent neural network in which neurons are randomly connected. Once initialized, the connection strengths remain unchanged. Such a simple structure turns RC into a non-linear dynamical system that maps low-dimensional inputs into a high-dimensional space. The model's rich dynamics, linear separability, and memory capacity then enable a simple linear readout to generate adequate responses for various applications. RC spans areas far beyond machine learning, since it has been shown that the complex dynamics can be realized in various physical hardware implementations and biological devices. This yields greater flexibility and shorter computation time. Moreover, the neuronal responses triggered by the model's dynamics shed light on understanding brain mechanisms that also exploit similar dynamical processes. While the literature on RC is vast and fragmented, here we conduct a unified review of RC's recent developments from machine learning to physics, biology, and neuroscience. We first review the early RC models, and then survey the state-of-the-art models and their applications. We further introduce studies on modeling the brain's mechanisms by RC. Finally, we offer new perspectives on RC development, including reservoir design, coding frameworks unification, physical RC implementations, and interaction between RC, cognitive neuroscience and evolution.Comment: 51 pages, 19 figures, IEEE Acces