A hybrid ensemble forecasting model of passenger flow based on improved variational mode decomposition and boosting

An accurate passenger flow forecast can provide key information for intelligent transportation and smart cities, and help promote the development of smart cities. In this paper, a mixed passenger flow forecasting model based on the golden jackal optimization algorithm (GJO), variational mode decomposition (VMD) and boosting algorithm was proposed. First, the data characteristics of the original passenger flow sequence were extended. Second, an improved variational modal decomposition method based on the Sobol sequence improved GJO algorithm was proposed. Next, according to the sample entropy of each intrinsic mode function (IMF), IMF with similar complexity is combined into a new subsequence. Finally, according to the determination rules of the sub-sequence prediction model, the boosting modeling and prediction of different sub-sequences were carried out, and the final passenger flow prediction result was obtained. Based on the experimental results of three scenic spots, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the mixed set model is 0.0797, 0.0424 and 0.0849, respectively. The fitting degree reached 95.33%, 95.63% and 95.97% simultaneously. The results show that the hybrid model proposed in this study has high prediction accuracy and can provide reliable information sources for relevant departments, scenic spot managers and tourists

Los efectos del Golden Week en Chengdú (China)

Desde que apareció el ¨Golden Week¨, la industria turística de China ha promovido el desarrollo y la calidad de la vida de sus ciudadanos. Por ello cada año, más personas eligen estas Semanas Doradas para viajar. Esto está ocasionando considerables efectos económicos, políticos, sociales y medioambientales en el turismo, y que a su vez genera masificación de la oferta y demanda turística, reducción de la calidad de los servicios turísticos, y una insatisfacción de los turistas. Este trabajo se centra en lo que ocurre en la ciudad de Chengdú.After the Golden Week appearing, China 's tourism industry has promoted the development and the quality of life for its citizens. Each year, more and more people are choosing to travel during these golden weeks. This situation is caused considerable economic, political, social and environmental effects on tourism. The Golden Week generates massification of tourism supply and demand, reduced quality of tourism services, and dissatisfaction among tourists. This article focuses on what happenes in the city of Chengdu .Universidad de Sevilla. Máster en Dirección y Planificación del Turism

The phenomenon of pilgrimages to Marian Sanctuaries

By centuries pilgrimages are present in Christianity. For Catholics, the importance of devotions and visits to the Marian sanctuaries is indisputable. The number of visitors and pilgrims to these temples makes the local economy an important destination for religious tourism. In order to understand the economic determinants of religious tourism, two sanctuaries were studied, namely, Aparecida (Brazil) and Fatima (Portugal). Given the large collection of statistical information of the Portuguese Sanctuary, it was verified through the Vector Autoregressive model that Gross Domestic Product and Unemployment cause unidirectional the pilgrimages. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model revealed that the increase in Gross Domestic Product and international arrivals in the short term positively impacts the number of pilgrims. Through the Ordinary Least Squares regression, significant statistical relationships between climatic factors (rain volume and average temperature) and visitors in the Sanctuary of Fatima were found. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average forecast method was applied to the number of monthly visitors to the Sanctuary of Aparecida and to the number of pilgrims in the Sanctuary of Fatima, the results show a strong seasonality and that the first and last months of the year are periods of low demand. The results of this study allow a new look at religious tourism in the Marian context, the empirical results allow those responsible for establishing public policies, tourism agents and the administration of the Sanctuaries to direct yours actions. Measures planned and executed jointly between the various agents can benefit residents, visitors, pilgrims, the tourism sector and the Sanctuaries themselves.Há séculos as peregrinações estão presentes no cristianismo. Para os católicos é indiscutível a importância das devoções e visitações aos Santuários marianos. O número de pessoas que visitam e peregrinam a esses espaços influenciam a economia local. Para compreeder os determinantes economicos do turismo religioso mariano foram estudados dois Santuários, nomeadamente, Aparecida (Brasil) e Fátima (Portugal). Dado o grande acervo de informações estatísticas do santuário português, verificou-se, através do modelo Vector Autoregressive, que o Produto Interno Bruto e o Desemprego influenciam unidirecionalmente as peregrinações. O modelo Autoregressive Distributed Lag revelou que o aumento do Produto Interno Bruto e das chegadas internacionais no curto prazo impactam positivamente o número de peregrinos. Por meio da regressão Ordinary Least Squares foram encontradas relações estatísticas significantes entre fatores climáticos (volume de chuva e temperatura média) e visitantes no Santuário de Fátima. O método de previsão Sazonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average foi aplicado nas séries (i) número de visitantes mensais do Santuário de Aparecida; e (ii) número de peregrinos no Santuário de Fátima. Os resultados revelam uma forte sazonalidade e que os primeiros e últimos meses do ano são os períodos de baixa procura. Os resultados deste estudo permitem um novo olhar para o turismo religioso no contexto mariano, os resultados empíricos permitem que os responsáveis por estabelecerem políticas públicas, agentes do turismo e a administração dos Santuários direcionem suas ações. Ações planejadas e executadas em conjunto entre os diversos agentes podem beneficiar os residentes, visitantes, peregrinos, o setor do turismo e os próprios Santuários

The Beacon, July 16, 2008

Vol. 21, Issue 4, 8 pageshttps://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/student_newspaper/1226/thumbnail.jp

SME competitiveness: an internationalization strategy for Dom Pedro Hotels

This paper studies the internationalization process of Dom Pedro to South Brazil. The company’s strategy is critically assessed and it is argued that a professionalization of corporate strategic planning is needed regarding further internationalization. This finding combined with a regional macro environment and hotel industry scanning helps deriving success factors for an expansion to South Brazil. Building on those factors, the market is analyzed regarding the most favorable hotel location and typology and an implementation plan is proposed. It is concluded that a business hotel in Porto Alegre represents a reasonable investment opportunity, if connected to an improved strategic planning

New Trends in Development of Services in the Modern Economy

The services sector strategic development unites a multitude of economic and managerial aspects and is one of the most important problems of economic management. Many researches devoted to this industry study are available. Most of them are performed in the traditional aspect of the voluminous calendar approach to strategic management, characteristic of the national scientific school. Such an approach seems archaic, forming false strategic benchmarks. The services sector is of special scientific interest in this context due to the fact that the social production structure to the services development model attraction in many countries suggests transition to postindustrial economy type where the services sector is a system-supporting sector of the economy. Actively influencing the economy, the services sector in the developed countries dominates in the GDP formation, primary capital accumulation, labor, households final consumption and, finally, citizens comfort of living. However, a clear understanding of the services sector as a hyper-sector permeating all spheres of human activity has not yet been fully developed, although interest in this issue continues to grow among many authors. Target of strategic management of the industry development setting requires substantive content and the services sector target value assessment

No signal here: self-development and optimal experience from digital-free tourism

The present research aims to establish a conceptual understanding of the benefits tourists may gain from digital-free tourism. The concept of digital-free tourism was proposed to represent situations characterised by the absence of or severely limited access to information and communication technology. There has been a contemporary concern over the sustained use of the internet and digital technologies, in terms of the side-effects on individuals' physical, psychological and social conditions and the possible deterioration of tourist experience. Therefore, the assumption of the potential of reduced technology use in tourism to improve tourist well-being has been claimed. Four interrelated studies were conducted to investigate the topic both as a social phenomenon and a niche tourism market. The rewarding outcomes of digital-free tourism were examined by addressing three specific questions. The first research question "is digital-free tourism rising in prominence?" was answered by the first study – media representation of digital-free tourism: a critical discourse analysis included in Chapter 2 of this thesis. Archival data, that is online media documents focusing on the broad topic of digital detoxing on holiday, was analysed at three levels, including linguistic characteristics, temporal diachronic interpretation and socio-cultural explanation. Media discourses around digital-free tourism were found to be evolving. Specifically, vacations and tourism are discoursed as ideal situations for managing technology use behaviours. The value of digital-free tourism over time has moved from relieving stress to life flourishing. Multiple digital-free tourism providers now offer diverse experiences to a growing broad market. The second research question "what are the positive experiences and impacts of digital-free tourism?" was answered by conducting the second study – exploration of benefits from digital-free tourism: a grounded theory approach in Chapter 3. Sixty five carefully selected key informants with expert knowledge or personal experience of digital-free tourism were asked to report their experience, observations and perspectives about reduced technology use on holiday. Based on the patterns in the data, a theoretical model was developed to display the positive changes of tourists' psychological, behavioural and life conditions through the process of digital-free tourism. The third research question "in what ways does digital-free vacation experience contribute to people's well-being?" was addressed in two further in-depth studies. These studies were developed in Chapters 4 and 5. The third study in Chapter 4 - self-development in digital-free tourism: building character strengths through coping with challenging investigated the correlations between digital-free tourism and the development of character strengths and virtues which build personal well-being. Key-informants' statements obtained in the previous study were re-coded by employing a catalogue of twenty four character strengths in positive psychology as a priori coding scheme. In the results, twenty three character strengths were found to be related to digital-free tourism. They were perceived to be the strengths that were utilised to cope with issues faced in the digital-free contexts. A tiered model was built to outline the core, secondary and peripheral strengths in digital-free tourism. The fourth study in Chapter 5 - optimal experience: the role of reduced smartphone use in increasing perception of restorative environments and producing flow attempted to develop measures for the levels of perceived restorative quality of digital-free tourism environments and the flow tourists experienced when technology use was reduced; as well as to examine the nexus among critical variables by testing a Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM). The hypothesised positive correlation between restorative environment and flow was confirmed. Smartphone dependence was found to be effective in reducing the level of flow and moderating the relationship between restorative environment and flow. A VI trend of high dependence on smartphone weakening tourists' ability to perceive restorative digital-free environment was also revealed by this empirical study. Consequently, the value and significance of positive changes of tourists' psychological, social, behavioural and life conditions arising from disconnection are suggested in these findings about the understudied concept of digital-free tourism. Such knowledge can make important theoretical contributions to the understanding of the intricate relationship between technology and tourism, the rewarding outcomes of vacation time involving reduced technology engagement, and the well-being from positive tourist experience. Digital-free tourism can provide individuals opportunities to experience a new way of being in this digital era, reflect on and regulate the technology use behaviours of themselves and their families, as well as increase well-being through selecting unplugging vacations. The present research also introduced digital-free tourism as a new style of tourism product and service that can be an effective strategy for remote regions to develop innovative forms of tourism