263 research outputs found
Hydrologic Remote Sensing and Land Surface Data Assimilation
Accurate, reliable and skillful forecasting of key environmental variables such as soil moisture and snow are of paramount importance due to their strong influence on many water resources applications including flood control, agricultural production and effective water resources management which collectively control the behavior of the climate system. Soil moisture is a key state variable in land surface?atmosphere interactions affecting surface energy fluxes, runoff and the radiation balance. Snow processes also have a large influence on land-atmosphere energy exchanges due to snow high albedo, low thermal conductivity and considerable spatial and temporal variability resulting in the dramatic change on surface and ground temperature. Measurement of these two variables is possible through variety of methods using ground-based and remote sensing procedures. Remote sensing, however, holds great promise for soil moisture and snow measurements which have considerable spatial and temporal variability. Merging these measurements with hydrologic model outputs in a systematic and effective way results in an improvement of land surface model prediction. Data Assimilation provides a mechanism to combine these two sources of estimation. Much success has been attained in recent years in using data from passive microwave sensors and assimilating them into the models. This paper provides an overview of the remote sensing measurement techniques for soil moisture and snow data and describes the advances in data assimilation techniques through the ensemble filtering, mainly Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and Particle filter (PF), for improving the model prediction and reducing the uncertainties involved in prediction process. It is believed that PF provides a complete representation of the probability distribution of state variables of interests (according to sequential Bayes law) and could be a strong alternative to EnKF which is subject to some limitations including the linear updating rule and assumption of jointly normal distribution of errors in state variables and observation
ASSIMILATION OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES FOR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATION USING THE NASA CATCHMENT LAND SURFACE MODEL AND MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS IN NORTH AMERICA
Snow is a critical component in the global energy and hydrologic cycle. It is important to know the mass of snow because it serves as the dominant source of drinking water for more than one billion people worldwide. To accurately estimate the depth of snow and mass of water within a snow pack across regional or continental scales is a challenge, especially in the presence of dense vegetations since direct quantification of SWE is complicated by spatial and temporal variability. To overcome some of the limitations encountered by traditional SWE retrieval algorithms or radiative transfer-based snow emission models, this study explores the use of a well-trained support vector machine to merge an advanced land surface model within a variant of radiance emission (i.e., brightness temperature) assimilation experiments. In general, modest improvements in snow depth, and SWE predictability were witnessed as a result of the assimilation procedure over snow-covered terrain in North America when compared against available snow products as well as ground-based observations. These preliminary findings are encouraging and suggest the potential for global-scale snow estimation via the proposed assimilation procedure
Désagrégation de l'humidité du sol issue des produits satellitaires micro-ondes passives et exploration de son utilisation pour l'amélioration de la modélisation et la prévision hydrologique
De plus en plus de produits satellitaires en micro-ondes passives sont disponibles. Cependant, leur large résolution spatiale (25-50 km) n’en font pas un outil adéquat pour des applications hydrologiques à une échelle locale telles que la modélisation et la prévision hydrologiques. Dans de nombreuses études, une désagrégation d’échelle de l’humidité du sol des produits satellites micro-ondes est faite puis validée avec des mesures in-situ. Toutefois, l’utilisation de ces données issues d’une désagrégation d’échelle n’a pas encore été pleinement étudiée pour des applications en hydrologie. Ainsi, l’objectif de cette thèse est de proposer une méthode de désagrégation d’échelle de l’humidité du sol issue de données satellitaires en micro-ondes passives (Satellite Passive Microwave Active and Passive - SMAP) à différentes résolutions spatiales afin d’évaluer leur apport sur l’amélioration potentielle des modélisations et prévisions hydrologiques. À partir d’un modèle de forêt aléatoire, une désagrégation d’échelle de l’humidité du sol de SMAP l’amène de 36-km de résolution initialement à des produits finaux à 9-, 3- et 1-km de résolution. Les prédicteurs utilisés sont à haute résolution spatiale et de sources différentes telles que Sentinel-1A, MODIS et SRTM. L'humidité du sol issue de cette désagrégation d’échelle est ensuite assimilée dans un modèle hydrologique distribué à base physique pour tenter d’améliorer les sorties de débit. Ces expériences sont menées sur les bassins versants des rivières Susquehanna (de grande taille) et Upper-Susquehanna (en comparaison de petite taille), tous deux situés aux États-Unis. De plus, le modèle assimile aussi des données d’humidité du sol en profondeur issue d’une extrapolation verticale des données SMAP. Par ailleurs, les données d’humidité du sol SMAP et les mesures in-situ sont combinées par la technique de fusion conditionnelle. Ce produit de fusion SMAP/in-situ est assimilé dans le modèle hydrologique pour tenter d’améliorer la prévision hydrologique sur le bassin versant Au Saumon situé au Québec. Les résultats montrent que l'utilisation de l’humidité du sol à fine résolution spatiale issue de la désagrégation d’échelle améliore la représentation de la variabilité spatiale de l’humidité du sol. En effet, le produit à 1- km de résolution fournit plus de détails que les produits à 3- et 9-km ou que le produit SMAP de base à 36-km de résolution. De même, l’utilisation du produit de fusion SMAP/ in-situ améliore la qualité et la représentation spatiale de l’humidité du sol. Sur le bassin versant Susquehanna, la modélisation hydrologique s’améliore avec l’assimilation du produit de désagrégation d’échelle à 9-km, sans avoir recours à des résolutions plus fines. En revanche, sur le bassin versant Upper-Susquehanna, c’est le produit avec la résolution spatiale la plus fine à 1- km qui offre les meilleurs résultats de modélisation hydrologique. L’assimilation de l’humidité du sol en profondeur issue de l’extrapolation verticale des données SMAP n’améliore que peu la qualité du modèle hydrologique. Par contre, l’assimilation du produit de fusion SMAP/in-situ sur le bassin versant Au Saumon améliore la qualité de la prévision du débit, même si celle-ci n’est pas très significative.Abstract: The availability of satellite passive microwave soil moisture is increasing, yet its spatial resolution (i.e., 25-50 km) is too coarse to use for local scale hydrological applications such as streamflow simulation and forecasting. Many studies have attempted to downscale satellite passive microwave soil moisture products for their validation with in-situ soil moisture measurements. However, their use for hydrological applications has not yet been fully explored. Thus, the objective of this thesis is to downscale the satellite passive microwave soil moisture (i.e., Satellite Microwave Active and Passive - SMAP) to a range of spatial resolutions and explore its value in improving streamflow simulation and forecasting. The random forest machine learning technique was used to downscale the SMAP soil moisture from 36-km to 9-, 3- and 1-km spatial resolutions. A combination of host of high-resolution predictors derived from different sources including Sentinel-1A, MODIS and SRTM were used for downscaling. The downscaled SMAP soil moisture was then assimilated into a physically-based distributed hydrological model for improving streamflow simulation for Susquehanna (larger in size) and Upper Susquehanna (relatively smaller in size) watersheds, located in the United States. In addition, the vertically extrapolated SMAP soil moisture was assimilated into the model. On the other hand, the SMAP and in-situ soil moisture were merged using the conditional merging technique and the merged SMAP/in-situ soil moisture was then assimilated into the model to improve streamflow forecast over the au Saumon watershed. The results show that the downscaling improved the spatial variability of soil moisture. Indeed, the 1-km downscaled SMAP soil moisture presented a higher spatial detail of soil moisture than the 3-, 9- or original resolution (36-km) SMAP product. Similarly, the merging of SMAP and in-situ soil moisture improved the accuracy as well as spatial representation soil moisture. Interestingly, the assimilation of the 9-km downscaled SMAP soil moisture significantly improved the accuracy of streamflow simulation for the Susquehanna watershed without the need of going to higher spatial resolution, whereas for the Upper Susquehanna watershed the 1-km downscaled SMAP showed better results than the coarser resolutions. The assimilation of vertically extrapolated SMAP soil moisture only slightly further improved the accuracy of the streamflow simulation. On the other hand, the assimilation of merged SMAP/in-situ soil moisture for the au Saumon watershed improved the accuracy of streamflow forecast, yet the improvement was not that significant. Overall, this study demonstrated the potential of satellite passive microwave soil moisture for streamflow simulation and forecasting
MULTI-SENSOR ASSIMILATION OF AMSR-E SPECTRAL DIFFERENCES AND GRACE TERRESTRIAL WATER STORAGE RETRIEVALS TO IMPROVE MODELED SNOW ESTIMATES
Snow, a key component of terrestrial water storage (TWS) in many watersheds across the globe, is a significant contributor to the Earth’s hydrologic cycle, energy cycle, and climate system. This study explores multi-sensor, multi-variate data assimilation (DA) using synthetic Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperature spectral differences () and synthetic Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) TWS retrievals in order to improve estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE), subsurface water storage, and TWS over snow-covered terrain. A series of synthetic twin experiments are conducted using NASA Catchment land surface model as the prognostic model. AMSR-E DA using a support vector machine as the observation operator improves SWE estimates, but adds little value to subsurface storage estimates. A physically-informed GRACE TWS DA approach significantly enhances the TWS vertical resolution via discretization into SWE and subsurface components more accurately. When AMSR-E and GRACE TWS are assimilated simultaneously, dual assimilation significantly improves the SWE estimates with a 14.1\% reduction of RMSE (relative to the Open Loop without assimilation) and leads to the largest improvement in TWS estimates (RMSE = 66.4 mm) and most reliable subsurface water storage ensemble spread (spread-error ratio = 1.08) as compared to the single-sensor DA scenarios. However, dual DA does not always yield complementary updates, and can at times, lead to conflictory changes to SWE. That is, the assimilation of often generates positive SWE increments whereas assimilation of TWS often removes SWE in the dual DA system, which can ultimately degrade the posterior SWE estimates. This synthetic experiment provides valuable insight for future DA experiments merging real-world AMRS-E/AMSR-2 and GRACE/GRACE-FO TWS retrievals in order to better characterize terrestrial freshwater storage across regional and continental scales
Multiscale assimilation of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS snow water equivalent and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover fraction observations in northern Colorado
Eight years (2002–2010) of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–EOS (AMSR-E) snow water equivalent (SWE) retrievals and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover fraction (SCF) observations are assimilated separately or jointly into the Noah land surface model over a domain in Northern Colorado. A multiscale ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used, supplemented with a rule-based update. The satellite data are either left unscaled or are scaled for anomaly assimilation. The results are validated against in situ observations at 14 high-elevation Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites with typically deep snow and at 4 lower-elevation Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) sites. Assimilation of coarse-scale AMSR-E SWE and fine-scale MODIS SCF observations both result in realistic spatial SWE patterns. At COOP sites with shallow snowpacks, AMSR-E SWE and MODIS SCF data assimilation are beneficial separately, and joint SWE and SCF assimilation yields significantly improved root-mean-square error and correlation values for scaled and unscaled data assimilation. In areas of deep snow where the SNOTEL sites are located, however, AMSR-E retrievals are typically biased low and assimilation without prior scaling leads to degraded SWE estimates. Anomaly SWE assimilation could not improve the interannual SWE variations in the assimilation results because the AMSR-E retrievals lack realistic interannual variability in deep snowpacks. SCF assimilation has only a marginal impact at the SNOTEL locations because these sites experience extended periods of near-complete snow cover. Across all sites, SCF assimilation improves the timing of the onset of the snow season but without a net improvement of SWE amounts
HUMAN AND CLIMATE IMPACTS ON FLOODING VIA REMOTE SENSING, BIG DATA ANALYTICS, AND MODELING
Over the last 20 years, the amount of streamflow has greatly increased and spring snowmelt floods have occurred more frequently in the north-central U.S. In the Red River of the North Basin (RRB) overlying portions of North Dakota and Minnesota, six of the 13 major floods over the past 100 years have occurred since the late 1990s. Based on numerous previous studies as well as senior flood forecasters’ experiences, recent hydrological changes related to human modifications [e.g. artificial subsurface drainage (SSD) expansion] and climate change are potential causes of notable forecasting failures over the past decade. My dissertation focuses on the operational and scientific gaps in current forecasting models and observational data and provides insights and value to both the practitioner and the research community. First, the current flood forecasting model needs both the location and installation timing of SSD and SSD physics. SSD maps were developed using satellite “big” data and a machine learning technique. Next, using the maps with a land surface model, the impacts of SSD expansion on regional hydrological changes were quantified. In combination with model physics, the inherent uncertainty in the airborne gamma snow survey observations hinders the accurate flood forecasting model. The operational airborne gamma snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements were improved by updating antecedent surface moisture conditions using satellite observations on soil moisture. From a long-term perspective, flood forecasters and state governments need knowledge of historical changes in snowpack and snowmelt to help flood management and to develop strategies to adapt to climate changes. However, historical snowmelt trends have not been quantified in the north-central U.S. due to the limited historical snow data. To overcome this, the current available historical long-term SWE products were evaluated across diverse regions and conditions. Using the most reliable SWE product, a trend analysis quantified the magnitude of change extreme snowpack and melt events over the past 36 years. Collectively, this body of research demonstrates that human and climate impacts, as well as limited and noisy data, cause uncertainties in flood prediction in the great plains, but integrated approaches using remote sensing, big data analytics, and modeling can quantify the hydrological changes and reduce the uncertainties. This dissertation improves the practice of flood forecasting in Red River of the North Basin and advances research in hydrology and snow science
Land Surface Data Assimilation of Satellite Derived Surface Soil Moisture : Towards an Integrated Representation of the Arctic Hydrological Cycle
The ability to accurately determine soil water content (soil moisture) over large areas of the Earth’s surface has potential implications in meteorology, hydrology, water and natural hazards management. The advent of space-based microwave sensors, found to be sensitive to surface soil moisture, has allowed for long-term studies of soil moisture dynamics at the global scale. There are, however, areas where remote sensing of soil moisture is prone to errors because, e.g., complex topography, surface water, dense vegetation, frozen soil or snow cover affect the retrieval. This is particularly the case for the northern high latitudes, which is a region subject to more rapid warming than the global mean and also is identified as an important region for studying 21st century climate change. Land surface models can help to close these observation gaps and provide high spatiotemporal coverage of the variables of interest. Models are only approximations of the real world and they can experience errors in, for example, their initialization and/or parameterization. In the past 20 years the research field of land surface data assimilation has undergone rapid developments, and it has provided a potential solution to the aforementioned problems. Land surface data assimilation offers a compromise between model and observations, and by minimization of their total errors it creates an analysis state which is superior to the model and observation alone. This thesis focuses on the implementation of a land surface data assimilation system, its applications and how to improve the separate elements that goes into such a framework. My ultimate goal is to improve the representation of soil moisture over northern high latitudes using land surface data assimilation. In my three papers, I first show how soil moisture data assimilation can correct random errors in the precipitation fields used to drive the land surface model. A result which indicates that a land surface model, driven by uncorrected precipitation, can have the same skill as a land surface model driven by bias-corrected precipitation. I show that passive microwave remote sensing can be utilized to monitor drought over regions of the world where this was thought to be impractical. I do this by creating a novel drought index based on passive microwave observations, and I validate the new index by comparing it with output from a land surface data assimilation system. Finally, I address knowledge gaps in the modelling of microwave emissions over northern high latitudes. In particular, I study the impact of neglecting multiplescattering terms from vegetation in the radiative transfer models of microwave emission. My three papers show that: (i) land surface data assimilation can improve surface soil moisture estimates at regional scales, (ii) passive microwave observations carries more information about the land surface over northern high latitudes than explored in the retrieval processing chain and (iii) including multiple-scattering terms in microwave radiative transfer models has the potential to increase the sensitivity for surface soil moisture below dense vegetation, and decrease biases between modelled and observed brightness temperature. In sum, my three papers lay the foundation for a land data assimilation system applicable to monitor the hydrological cycle over northern high latitudes
Snow Cover Monitoring from Remote-Sensing Satellites: Possibilities for Drought Assessment
Snow cover is an important earth surface characteristic because it influences partitioning of the surface radiation, energy, and hydrologic budgets. Snow is also an important source of moisture for agricultural crops and water supply in many higher latitude or mountainous areas. For instance, snowmelt provides approximately 50%–80% of the annual runoff in the western United States (Pagano and Garen, 2006) and Canadian Prairies (Gray et al., 1989; Fang and Pomeroy, 2007), which substantially impacts warm season hydrology. Limited soil moisture reserves from the winter period can result in agricultural drought (i.e., severe early growing season vegetation stress if rainfall deficits occur during that period), which can be prolonged or intensified well into the growing season if relatively dry conditions persist. Snow cover deficits can also result in hydrological drought (i.e., severe deficits in surface and subsurface water reserves including soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, and groundwater) since snowmelt runoff is the primary source of moisture to recharge these reserves for a wide range of agricultural, commercial, ecological, and municipal purposes. Semiarid regions that rely on snowmelt are especially vulnerable to winter moisture shortfalls since these areas are more likely to experience frequent droughts. In the Canadian Prairies, more than half the years of three decades (1910–1920, 1930–1939, and 1980–1989) were in drought. Wheaton et al. (2005) reported exceptionally low precipitation and low snow cover in the winter of 2000–2001, with the greatest anomalies of precipitation in Alberta and western Saskatchewan along with near-normal temperature in most of southern Canada. The reduced snowfall led to lower snow accumulation. A loss in agricultural production over Canada by an estimated $3.6 billion in 2001–2002 was attributed to this drought. Fang and Pomeroy (2008) analyzed the impacts of the most recent and severe drought of 1999/2004–2005 for part of the Canadian Prairies on the water supply of a wetland basin by using a physically based cold region hydrologic modeling system. Simulation results showed that much lower winter precipitation, less snow accumulation, and shorter snow cover duration were associated with much lower discharge from snowmelt runoff to the wetland area during much of the drought period of 1999/2004–2005 than during the nondrought period of 2005/2006
Snow Cover Monitoring from Remote-Sensing Satellites: Possibilities for Drought Assessment
Snow cover is an important earth surface characteristic because it influences partitioning of the surface radiation, energy, and hydrologic budgets. Snow is also an important source of moisture for agricultural crops and water supply in many higher latitude or mountainous areas. For instance, snowmelt provides approximately 50%–80% of the annual runoff in the western United States (Pagano and Garen, 2006) and Canadian Prairies (Gray et al., 1989; Fang and Pomeroy, 2007), which substantially impacts warm season hydrology. Limited soil moisture reserves from the winter period can result in agricultural drought (i.e., severe early growing season vegetation stress if rainfall deficits occur during that period), which can be prolonged or intensified well into the growing season if relatively dry conditions persist. Snow cover deficits can also result in hydrological drought (i.e., severe deficits in surface and subsurface water reserves including soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, and groundwater) since snowmelt runoff is the primary source of moisture to recharge these reserves for a wide range of agricultural, commercial, ecological, and municipal purposes. Semiarid regions that rely on snowmelt are especially vulnerable to winter moisture shortfalls since these areas are more likely to experience frequent droughts. In the Canadian Prairies, more than half the years of three decades (1910–1920, 1930–1939, and 1980–1989) were in drought. Wheaton et al. (2005) reported exceptionally low precipitation and low snow cover in the winter of 2000–2001, with the greatest anomalies of precipitation in Alberta and western Saskatchewan along with near-normal temperature in most of southern Canada. The reduced snowfall led to lower snow accumulation. A loss in agricultural production over Canada by an estimated $3.6 billion in 2001–2002 was attributed to this drought. Fang and Pomeroy (2008) analyzed the impacts of the most recent and severe drought of 1999/2004–2005 for part of the Canadian Prairies on the water supply of a wetland basin by using a physically based cold region hydrologic modeling system. Simulation results showed that much lower winter precipitation, less snow accumulation, and shorter snow cover duration were associated with much lower discharge from snowmelt runoff to the wetland area during much of the drought period of 1999/2004–2005 than during the nondrought period of 2005/2006
- …