Principles and Concepts of Agent-Based Modelling for Developing Geospatial Simulations

The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded. The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded

Spatial optimization for land use allocation: accounting for sustainability concerns

Land-use allocation has long been an important area of research in regional science. Land-use patterns are fundamental to the functions of the biosphere, creating interactions that have substantial impacts on the environment. The spatial arrangement of land uses therefore has implications for activity and travel within a region. Balancing development, economic growth, social interaction, and the protection of the natural environment is at the heart of long-term sustainability. Since land-use patterns are spatially explicit in nature, planning and management necessarily must integrate geographical information system and spatial optimization in meaningful ways if efficiency goals and objectives are to be achieved. This article reviews spatial optimization approaches that have been relied upon to support land-use planning. Characteristics of sustainable land use, particularly compactness, contiguity, and compatibility, are discussed and how spatial optimization techniques have addressed these characteristics are detailed. In particular, objectives and constraints in spatial optimization approaches are examined

CAST – City analysis simulation tool: an integrated model of land use, population, transport and economics

The paper reports on research into city modelling based on principles of Science of Complexity. It focuses on integration of major processes in cities, such as economics, land use, transport and population movement. This is achieved using an extended Cellular Automata model, which allows cells to form networks, and operate on individual financial budgets. There are 22 cell types with individual processes in them. The formation of networks is based on supply and demand mechanisms for products, skills, accommodation, and services. Demand for transport is obtained as an emergent property of the system resulting from the network connectivity and relevant economic mechanisms. Population movement is a consequence of mechanisms in the housing and skill markets. Income and expenditure of cells are self-regulated through market mechanisms and changing patterns of land use are a consequence of collective interaction of all mechanisms in the model, which are integrated through emergence

Enhancing geographical information systems capabilities with multi-criteria evaluation functions

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Key challenges in agent-based modelling for geo-spatial simulation

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is fast becoming the dominant paradigm in social simulation due primarily to a worldview that suggests that complex systems emerge from the bottom-up, are highly decentralised, and are composed of a multitude of heterogeneous objects called agents. These agents act with some purpose and their interaction, usually through time and space, generates emergent order, often at higher levels than those at which such agents operate. ABM however raises as many challenges as it seeks to resolve. It is the purpose of this paper to catalogue these challenges and to illustrate them using three somewhat different agent-based models applied to city systems. The seven challenges we pose involve: the purpose for which the model is built, the extent to which the model is rooted in independent theory, the extent to which the model can be replicated, the ways the model might be verified, calibrated and validated, the way model dynamics are represented in terms of agent interactions, the extent to which the model is operational, and the way the model can be communicated and shared with others. Once catalogued, we then illustrate these challenges with a pedestrian model for emergency evacuation in central London, a hypothetical model of residential segregation tuned to London data which elaborates the standard Schelling (1971) model, and an agent-based residential location built according to spatial interactions principles, calibrated to trip data for Greater London. The ambiguities posed by this new style of modelling are drawn out as conclusions

Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example

System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed

Approaches to integrated strategic/tactical forest planning

Traditionally forest planning is divided into a hierarchy of planning phases. Strategic planning is conducted to make decisions about sustainable harvest levels while taking into account legislation and policy issues. Within the frame of the strategic plan, the purpose of tactical planning is to schedule harvest operations to specific areas in the immediate few years and on a finer time scale than in the strategic plan. The operative phase focuses on scheduling harvest crews on a monthly or weekly basis, truck scheduling and choosing bucking instructions. Decisions at each level are to a varying degree supported by computerized tools. A problem that may arise when planning is divided into levels and that is noted in the literature focusing on decision support tools is that solutions at one level may be inconsistent with the results of another level. When moving from the strategic plan to the tactical plan, three sources of inconsistencies are often present; spatial discrepancies, temporal discrepancies and discrepancies due to different levels of constraint. The models used in the papers presented in this thesis approaches two of these discrepancies. To address the spatial discrepancies, the same spatial resolution has been used at both levels, i.e., stands. Temporal discrepancies are addressed by modelling the tactical and strategic issues simultaneously. Integrated approaches can yield large models. One way of circumventing this is to aggregate time and/or space. The first paper addresses the consequences of temporal aggregation in the strategic part of a mixed integer programming integrated strategic/tactical model. For reference, linear programming based strategic models are also used. The results of the first paper provide information on what temporal resolutions could be used and indicate that outputs from strategic and integrated plans are not particularly affected by the number of equal length strategic periods when more than five periods, i.e. about 20 year period length, are used. The approach used in the first paper could produce models that are very large, and the second paper provides a two-stage procedure that can reduce the number of variables and preserve the allocation of stands to the first 10 years provided by a linear programming based strategic plan, while concentrating tactical harvest activities using a penalty concept in a mixed integer programming formulation. Results show that it is possible to use the approach to concentrate harvest activities at the tactical level in a full scale forest management scenario. In the case study, the effects of concentration on strategic outputs were small, and the number of harvest tracts declined towards a minimum level. Furthermore, the discrepancies between the two planning levels were small

Predicting and simulating future land use pattern : a case study of Seremban district

As long as rapid urbanization which is a result of natural population growth and rural urban migration due to push and pull factors of social and economic conditions as well as the moving of urban populations from major city centres to urban fringe areas due to changing lifestyle which emphasized on spacious and more comfortable and environmentally friendly living environment continue to happen; towns and cities will continue to grow and expand to accommodate the growing and complex demand of the people. Experiences have shown that rapid and uncontrolled expansion of towns and cities has led to amongst others the deterioration in the quality of urban environment and sprawling of urban development onto prime agricultural and forest areas as well as cities starting to lose their identity. In order to avoid such phenomena continuing to happen, particularly in the Kuala Lumpur Conurbation Area, towns and cities need to be properly planned and managed so that their growth or expansion can be controlled and managed in a sustainable manner. One of the strategies adopted to curb sprawling development is through the delineation of urban growth or development limits (UGL). This means that the limit of towns and cities need to be studied and identified, so that urban development can be directed to areas that are identified and specified suitable for such development. One of the main tasks in the process of delineating UGL has been included as an important task in the preparation of development plans. With such policy a research study is now being carried out to develop a spatial modelling framework towards delineating UGL through the application and integration of spatial technologies and this will be a basis or framework for land use planners, managers and policy makers to formulate urban land use policies and monitor urban land use development. One of the main analysis involve in the process of performing this task is to understand past urban land development trend and to predict and identify future urban growth areas of the selected study area. This paper highlights the integration of statistical modeling technique via binary logistic regression analysis with GIS technology in understanding and predicting urban growth pattern and area as applied to District of Seremban, Negeri Sembilan. The result shows that urban land use pattern in the study area within the study period are significantly related to more than half of the predictors used in the analysis

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade‐offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially‐differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal trade‐offs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use,