Multimodal Epidemic Visual Analytics and Modeling

The risk of infectious disease increases due to various factors including the dense population, development of various transportations, urbanization, and abnormal weather conditions. Since the speed of epidemic spread is fast, it is necessary to respond quickly in order to prevent the high fatality rate. Therefore, a fast search for the highly accurate spreading model has to be focused on the proper analysis of disease spreading. There have been many studies to understand the disease spreading and the epidemic model is often used to analyze and predict the spread of infectious disease. However, it is limited to apply the epidemic model for the spread analysis because the model captures spreading changes only within the defined area. In this paper, we propose a framework for the disease spreading simulation with multimodal factors in the epidemic model and networks of possible spread routes. Our system provides an interactive simulation environment with the interregional disease spreading according to various spread parameters. Moreover, in order to understand the spreading directions, we extract vector fields over time and visualize the vector fields with the fatality of the disease. Therefore, users are able to understand the disease spreading phenomena and obtain appropriate models through our framework

Artificial intelligence and visual analytics in geographical space and cyberspace: Research opportunities and challenges

In recent decades, we have witnessed great advances on the Internet of Things, mobile devices, sensor-based systems, and resulting big data infrastructures, which have gradually, yet fundamentally influenced the way people interact with and in the digital and physical world. Many human activities now not only operate in geographical (physical) space but also in cyberspace. Such changes have triggered a paradigm shift in geographic information science (GIScience), as cyberspace brings new perspectives for the roles played by spatial and temporal dimensions, e.g., the dilemma of placelessness and possible timelessness. As a discipline at the brink of even bigger changes made possible by machine learning and artificial intelligence, this paper highlights the challenges and opportunities associated with geographical space in relation to cyberspace, with a particular focus on data analytics and visualization, including extended AI capabilities and virtual reality representations. Consequently, we encourage the creation of synergies between the processing and analysis of geographical and cyber data to improve sustainability and solve complex problems with geospatial applications and other digital advancements in urban and environmental sciences

Methodologies in Predictive Visual Analytics

abstract: Predictive analytics embraces an extensive area of techniques from statistical modeling to machine learning to data mining and is applied in business intelligence, public health, disaster management and response, and many other fields. To date, visualization has been broadly used to support tasks in the predictive analytics pipeline under the underlying assumption that a human-in-the-loop can aid the analysis by integrating domain knowledge that might not be broadly captured by the system. Primary uses of visualization in the predictive analytics pipeline have focused on data cleaning, exploratory analysis, and diagnostics. More recently, numerous visual analytics systems for feature selection, incremental learning, and various prediction tasks have been proposed to support the growing use of complex models, agent-specific optimization, and comprehensive model comparison and result exploration. Such work is being driven by advances in interactive machine learning and the desire of end-users to understand and engage with the modeling process. However, despite the numerous and promising applications of visual analytics to predictive analytics tasks, work to assess the effectiveness of predictive visual analytics is lacking. This thesis studies the current methodologies in predictive visual analytics. It first defines the scope of predictive analytics and presents a predictive visual analytics (PVA) pipeline. Following the proposed pipeline, a predictive visual analytics framework is developed to be used to explore under what circumstances a human-in-the-loop prediction process is most effective. This framework combines sentiment analysis, feature selection mechanisms, similarity comparisons and model cross-validation through a variety of interactive visualizations to support analysts in model building and prediction. To test the proposed framework, an instantiation for movie box-office prediction is developed and evaluated. Results from small-scale user studies are presented and discussed, and a generalized user study is carried out to assess the role of predictive visual analytics under a movie box-office prediction scenario.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Engineering 201

Methodologies in Predictive Visual Analytics

abstract: Predictive analytics embraces an extensive area of techniques from statistical modeling to machine learning to data mining and is applied in business intelligence, public health, disaster management and response, and many other fields. To date, visualization has been broadly used to support tasks in the predictive analytics pipeline under the underlying assumption that a human-in-the-loop can aid the analysis by integrating domain knowledge that might not be broadly captured by the system. Primary uses of visualization in the predictive analytics pipeline have focused on data cleaning, exploratory analysis, and diagnostics. More recently, numerous visual analytics systems for feature selection, incremental learning, and various prediction tasks have been proposed to support the growing use of complex models, agent-specific optimization, and comprehensive model comparison and result exploration. Such work is being driven by advances in interactive machine learning and the desire of end-users to understand and engage with the modeling process. However, despite the numerous and promising applications of visual analytics to predictive analytics tasks, work to assess the effectiveness of predictive visual analytics is lacking. This thesis studies the current methodologies in predictive visual analytics. It first defines the scope of predictive analytics and presents a predictive visual analytics (PVA) pipeline. Following the proposed pipeline, a predictive visual analytics framework is developed to be used to explore under what circumstances a human-in-the-loop prediction process is most effective. This framework combines sentiment analysis, feature selection mechanisms, similarity comparisons and model cross-validation through a variety of interactive visualizations to support analysts in model building and prediction. To test the proposed framework, an instantiation for movie box-office prediction is developed and evaluated. Results from small-scale user studies are presented and discussed, and a generalized user study is carried out to assess the role of predictive visual analytics under a movie box-office prediction scenario.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Engineering 201

Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease

A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, whenand to whom to apply an intervention.We develop a framework for using data to informthese decisionsin realtime.We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, oneper treatment period, that map up-to-date information on the spread of an infectious diseaseto a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategyoptimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographicfootprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategyfor an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interferencebetween locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number oflocations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak.We derive a Bayesian on-line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combinessimulation–optimization with Thompson sampling.The estimator proposed performs favourablyin simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread ofwhite nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations inNorth America