Complexity, ambiguity, and the boundaries of the future: Toward a reflexive scenario practice in sustainability science

The future of humanity and the biosphere is complex and increasingly uncertain, complicating efforts to understand and address 21st century environmental crises like biodiversity loss and climate change. Transdisciplinary scenario practice offers a promising avenue to make sense of this complexity and uncertainty. Scenarios are often defined as coherent, internally consistent, and plausible descriptions of the potential future trajectories of a system, and transdisciplinarity is an integrative, problem-oriented, and societally embedded research paradigm that aims to generate knowledge about complex and contested problems. However, despite its promise, transdisciplinary scenario practice grapples with persistent ambiguity (i.e., the existence of multiple valid frames), which emerges from the plural values and perspectives of diverse actors involved in knowledge production, resistance to integration via any singular frame offered by an individual discipline, and the inherent complexity of sustainability challenges. The lack of concepts, frameworks, and tools to operationalize ambiguity presents risks to the salience and legitimacy of transdisciplinary scenario practice. Ambiguity renders any scenario process as a partial framing of the future that focuses attention on what is most relevant and is contingent on how it was produced. Reflexivity (i.e., the process of examining how one’s own beliefs, judgments, and practices influence the research) is cited as a crucial capacity for navigating such ambiguity, yet its role in sustainability science, and in scenario practice, remains unclear. Without reflexivity, those developing and using the scenarios are left without the means or motivation to critically reflect on how the scenarios are produced, their underlying assumptions, and their strengths and limitations for different modes of application. Further, the boundaries that delineate what future conditions and values are included and excluded from the scenarios are rendered invisible. This gap influences the salience and legitimacy of the scenarios to real-world sustainability challenges, particularly amid contemporary demands to enrich scenarios with the novel and potentially transformative conditions of the 21st century. This dissertation explores two opportunities to operationalize ambiguity through reflexivity in transdisciplinary scenario practice. First, the field of operational research has a multi-decade history grappling with theoretical and practical aspects of ambiguity through critical systems thinking (CST), offering opportunities for sustainability science. Second, most scenario methods require implicit trade-offs that reduce or ignore aspects of complexity (and thus ambiguity), failing to get the “big picture” roughly right. Semi-quantitative scenario methods like cross-impact balances (CIB) produce internally consistent scenarios by systematically and reflexively integrating diverse drivers of change, thereby reconciling some of these trade-offs and offering a promising yet underutilized scenario method for sustainability science. Paper I aimed to contribute to reflexive scenario practice in sustainability science by making ambiguity explicit and operational using the lens of CST. This investigation generated the Boundaries of the Future framework, a novel synthesis of literatures that characterizes how key boundary judgments (i.e., choices that delineate what is included or excluded from a system) involved in the design of a scenario process influence the scope of future potential (i.e., future conditions and values) reflected in scenario outcomes, and proposes the degree to which this scope of future potential may reflect the dynamics of, and/or conditions for, social-ecological systems (SES) change (i.e., a dominant complexity-based lens that views high-level system behavior as emerging from social-ecological and cross-scale interactions and feedbacks). The most expansive choice under each of the ten boundary judgments in the framework enriches scenarios with the conditions for transformation (i.e., fundamental, systemic shifts away from existing systems; desirable or undesirable; navigated or unintended). The framework can be operationalized as an ex ante or ex post reflexive tool in sustainability research and practice by rendering each of the ten boundary judgments as an explicit site of critical reflection in a scenario process. Doing so can improve the salience and legitimacy of the scenarios, including by enriching scenarios with the potential for transformation. Paper II aimed to explore the potential for semi-quantitative scenario methods to enrich scenario practice for a) the development of ‘big picture’ (i.e., integrative and holistic) scenarios in sustainability science and b) river basins attempting to build resilience to climate change. This objective was addressed through a case study transdisciplinary CIB modelling process in the Red River Basin, a transboundary river basin shared by the United States and Canada. The scenarios explore ‘big picture’ scenarios of a river basin under climate change by characterizing future change as emergent from interactions between diverse efforts to build resilience and a complex, cross-scale SES. The results surface significant complexities and ambiguities surrounding efforts to build resilience in river basins and affirm the potential for the CIB method to generate unique insights about the trajectory of SESs. Reflections on the irreducible ambiguity that persisted through Papers I and II led to the development of Paper III, which aimed to explore how key concepts, frameworks, and lessons from CST may be adapted to help address the challenges presented by ambiguity in sustainability science (i.e., beyond scenario practice). The major contribution of this investigation is an operational definition of ambiguity focused on the subjectivity of system boundaries (i.e., an emergent feature of the simultaneous and interacting boundary processes associated with being, knowing, and intervening in complex systems) and two recommendations for sustainability scientists to operationalize ambiguity as a valuable means of addressing sustainability challenges: 1) adjust the theoretical orientation of sustainability science to consider the potential for and consequences of theoretical incommensurability and discordant pluralism, and 2) nurture the reflexive capacities of transdisciplinary researchers to navigate persistent ambiguity. CST literature and four case study reflections (including the transdisciplinary scenario process from Paper II) were used to develop the novel framework of Reflexive Boundary Critique to guide critical reflection on ambiguity at all stages of the research process. In sum, this dissertation explored opportunities to operationalize ambiguity through reflexivity in transdisciplinary scenario practice, contributing to a rich and growing body of research that addresses the ambiguities inherent to research about complex sustainability challenges. My hope is that this contribution helps sustainability scientists give shape to and embrace ambiguity as a fundamental part of rigorous sustainability science

SMT goes ABMS: Developing Strategic Management Theory using Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation.

For the emerging complexity theory of strategy (CTS), organizations are complex adaptive systems able to co-evolve with their dynamic environments through interaction and response, rather than purely analysis and planning. A promising approach within the CTS context, is to focus on a strategic logic of opportunity pursuit, one in which the distributed decision-makers behave audaciously despite unpredictable, unstable environments. Although there is only emergent support for it, intriguingly organizations can perform better when these decision-makers ‘throw caution to the wind’ even at their own possible expense. Since traditional research methods have had difficulty showing how this can work over time, this research adopts a complementary method, agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS), to examine this phenomenon. The simulation model developed here, CTS-SIM, is based on quite simple constructs, but it introduces a rich and novel externally driven environment and represents individual decision-makers as having autonomous perceptions but constrainable decision-making freedom. Its primary contribution is the illumination of core dynamics and causal mechanisms in the opportunity-transitioning process. During model construction the apparently simple concept of opportunity-transitioning turns out to be complex, and the apparently complex integration of exogenous and endogenous environments with all three views of opportunity pursuit in the entrepreneurship literature, turns out to be relatively simple. Simulation outcomes using NetLogo contribute to CTS by confirming the positive effects on agent performance of opportunistic transitioning among opportunities in highly dynamic environments. The simulations also reveal tensions among some of the chosen variables and tipping points in emergent behaviours, point to areas where theoretical clarity is currently lacking, provoke some interesting questions and open up useful avenues for future research and data collection using other methods and models. Guidance through numerous stylized facts, flexible methods, careful documentation and description are all intended to inspire interest and facilitate critical discussion and ongoing scientific work

The effect of changing climate and vegetation on the topographic evolution of catchments in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera over millennial timescales

The complex interplay between climate change, the composition and density of surface vegetation cover and physical surface processes has been a focus of scientific research in the field of geomorphology for the last few decades. The classical approach for explaining differences in topography only considers the influence of tectonic processes and lithological material constants as endogenic forcings and the effect of precipitation as an exogenic forcing, where the stabilizing effect of vegetation cover has mostly been neglected. To develop a more complete view of the complex topographic system and incorporate the dynamics between climate and vegetation, a numerical model framework consisting of a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) and a landscape evolution model (Landlab) was developed and tested against four different study areas situated in the Chilean Coastal Cordillera on the basis of‚ available paleoclimate data. These study areas were chosen based on homogeneous endogenic forcings, with a comparable tectonic uplift rate and the same granodioritic lithology, all of which allow for better parameterization of surface processes. Three main simulation experiments were conducted: 1. LPJ-GUESS simulations, which gave insight about large-scale dynamic adjustments of vegetation cover and composition for the respective climate zones. 2. Landlab simulations which were designed to reproduce steady-state topographic metrics observed in the focus areas and to determine the reaction of the topographic system to transient, external changes in precipitation or vegetation cover 3. Coupled simulations with direct feedback during model-runtime between LPJ-GUESS and Landlab for the timeperiod since the last glacial maximum (21ka before present) to present day. The experiments show a complex reaction of both vegetation and topography to climatic forcings, with absolute changes in vegetation cover not exceeding 10%, but large-magnitude adjustments of plant composition due to changes in climate. Simulations show magnitudes and time-scales of adjustment are highly dependent on initial catchment vegetation cover and amount of annual precipitation received. Coupled simulations show large short-term variations in catchment-mean erosion rates for very arid and very humid focus areas, while areas with mediterranean climate show lesser magnitude fluctuations but a more pronounced long-term decrease in mean erosion rates. In summary, this thesis helps in understanding the complex climate-erosion interactions by showing the nature of the threshold-controlled system which governs the reactions of topography to natural changes in climate or vegetation cover

Suomalaisen koulutuksen ristiriitaisuuksia : Suomalaisuus, interkulttuurisuus ja sosiaalinen oikeudenmukaisuus

Year 2017 marked the 100th anniversary of Finland’s independence. Over the course of independence, along with the construction of narratives of Finnishness, education has been among the many social and political projects harnessed to support Finland’s emergence as a viable nation-state. Finland built an educational system that has gained global attention for its excellence in outcomes. While much of both national and international public, educational, and political discourses operate around the notion of Finnishness, infused with egalitarian values, inclusivity, and ethos of excellence, there are alarming signs of realities conflicting with certain imaginaries of education and social wellbeing in the Nordic country. This interdisciplinary doctoral thesis, situated across education, and, amongst others, philosophy, sociology, and literary studies, sets out to problematize what is currently happening at the intersection of myth and reality of Finnish education, and asks: 1) How does the notion of Finnishness inform different educational actors, perspectives, and contexts?, and 2) How can Finnishness in education be deconstructed, critically examined, and reconstructed? The thesis examines the way Finnishness is found to inform perceptions on interculturality and diversity in the teaching profession, and how the notion is involved in mechanism of Othering. This work also applies and demonstrates the use of an intertextual method as a pedagogical tool to deconstruct, critically examine, and reconstruct national narratives, here Finnishness. Finally, the work describes critical and reflexive interculturality (Dervin 2016), and conceptualizes and advocates a theoretical shift in the general perception of interculturality in education towards the direction of intercultural ethics. Research data comprises ten Finnish teacher interviews and 85 open comments, two intertextual case studies with pre-service teachers, but also two commercial products on Finnish education, and Finnish ABC books (a selection 1900–2013). The thesis uses several (dialogical) qualitative methods and operates from critical and reflexive interculturality as the philosophical and theoretical lens. The results suggest Finnishness set in the realms of the nostalgic and mystified, and discourses on equality/equity and social justice in education embellished and ambiguous. While the intertextual method revealed hidden contestations challenging hegemonies and taken-for-granted ideologies, Finnishness was also found to inform mechanisms that Other those not fitting the norm. Furthermore, notion itself, Finnishness, was found to be Othered and slightly contested. Ethnocentric tendencies and essentialist biases were also found in perspectives on interculturality and diversity among teachers. The positive indications of teachers’ ethically caring, fair and just ways of promoting wellbeing and social justice were used to conceptualize and advocate intercultural ethics. With critical and reflexive interculturality as the base, I suggest that intercultural ethics can be used as a tool for meta-level thinking e.g. teacher education and training. I also argue that the proposed intertextual method can serve as a pedagogical tool across disciplines e.g. in phenomenon-based learning. Keywords: Finnishness, Finnish education, critical and reflexive interculturality, intercultural ethics, equality/equity, social justice, intertextualitySuomi juhli 100-vuotiasta itsenäisyyttään vuonna 2017. Itsenäisyyden aikana, muiden yhteiskunnallisten ja poliittisten projektien muassa, koulutus valjastettiin osaksi kansallisia narratiiveja tukemaan kansallisvaltion syntyä ja myöhemmin ylläpitämään sen toiminta- ja kilpailukykyä. Suomi on saavuttanut kansainvälistä huomiota koulutuksen laadusta. Useat suomalaisuuteen ja suomalaiseen koulutukseen liittyvät yleiset ja poliittiset diskurssit ovat ladattuja tasa-arvon ja oikeudenmukaisuuden sekä erinomaisuuden eetoksella niin kansallisesti kuin kansainvälisesti. On kuitenkin hälyttävää, etteivät tietyt mielenmaisemat pohjoisen maan koulutuksesta ja sosiaalisesta hyvinvoinnista enää kasvavassa määrin kohtaa koulutukseen liittyviä realiteetteja. Tämä monitieteinen tutkimus sijoittuu kasvatustieteisiin ja muiden muassa myös filosofian, sosiologian, kirjallisuustieteen tutkimusperinteisiin. Se tarkastelee suomalaiseen koulutukseen liittyvien myyttien ja realiteettien kohtaamista kysymällä: 1) Miten suomalaisuus vaikuttaa koulutuksen toimijoihin, näkemyksiin ja konteksteihin? ja 2) Miten suomalaisuutta voidaan tutkia käsitteenä koulutuksessa niin, että tuodaan esille piiloisia merkityksiä, tutkitaan niitä kriittisesti ja ajatellaan käsitettä uusilla merkityksillä? Tutkimus tarkastelee, miten suomalaisuus vaikuttaa opettajien ammatillisiin käsityksiin interkulttuurisuudesta ja monimuotoisuudesta, ja miten käsite tuottaa toiseutta. Tutkimus myös soveltaa ja havainnollistaa intertekstuaalisen metodin käyttöä pedagogisena välineenä piiloisten merkitysten löytämiseen kansallisten narratiivien (tässä suomalaisuus) taustalla, niiden kriittiseen tarkasteluun ja monitahoisten merkitysten tuottamiseen. Työ tarkentaa kriittistä ja refleksiivistä interkulttuurisuutta (Dervin 2016) sekä käsitteellistää ja teoretisoi siirtymää kohti interkulttuurista eettisyyttä. Tutkimusaineisto koostui kymmenen suomalaisen opettajan haastattelusta ja 85 avoimesta kommentista, kahden opettajaopiskelijan intertekstuaalisesta tapaustutkimuksesta sekä kahdesta kaupallisesta tuotteesta liittyen suomalaiseen koululaitokseen ja valikoimasta (1900–2013) suomalaisia aapisia. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin erilaisia laadullisia (dialogisia) menetelmiä ja sen filosofinen ja teoreettinen kehys on kriittinen ja refleksiivinen interkulttuurisuus. Tuloksien mukaan suomalaisuus näyttäytyy nostalgisena ja myyttisenä, ja tasa-arvon ja oikeudenmukaisuuden diskurssit kaunisteltuina ja monitulkintaisina. Intertekstuaalisen metodin esilletuomat piiloiset kiistanalaisuudet haastoivat hegemonisia ja ideologisia ’itsestäänselvinä’ pidettyjä totuuksia. Suomalaisuuden todettiin olevan osa toiseuttavia mekanismeja kohdistuen niihin, joiden koetaan olevan erilaisia suhteesssa suomalaisuuden normeihin. Tämä näkyi mm. aapiskirjoissa ja opettajien käsityksissä interkulttuurisuudesta ja monimuotoisuudesta. Myös suomalaisuuden käsite nähtiin toiseutettuna ja jossain määrin kiistanalaisena. Opettajien näkemyksissä todettiin etnosentrisiä ja essentialistisia asenteita suhteessa interkulttuurisuuteen ja monimuotoisuuteen. Positiivisia ilmauksia opettajien eettisesti välittävästä ja oikeudenmukaisuutta edistävästä toiminnasta käytettiin interkulttuurisen eettisyyden käsitteellistämiseen ja teoretisoimiseen tarkoituksella edistää opettajien meta-tason ajattelua esim. opettajakoulutuksessa. Esitän myös intertekstuaalisen metodin hyödyntämistä pedagogisena välineenä muun muassa ilmiöpohjaiseen opiskeluun ja poikkitieteelliseen tutkimustyöhön. Avainsanat: suomalaisuus, suomalainen koulutus, kriittinen ja refleksiivinen interkulttuurisuus, interkulttuurinen eettisyys, tasa-arvo/yhdenvertaisuus, oikeudenmukaisuus, intertekstuaalisuu

Can Science Explain Consciousness?

For diverse reasons, the problem of phenomenal consciousness is persistently challenging. Mental terms are characteristically ambiguous, researchers have philosophical biases, secondary qualities are excluded from objective description, and philosophers love to argue. Adhering to a regime of efficient causes and third-person descriptions, science as it has been defined has no place for subjectivity or teleology. A solution to the “hard problem” of consciousness will require a radical approach: to take the point of view of the cognitive system itself. To facilitate this approach, a concept of agency is introduced along with a different understanding of intentionality. Following this approach reveals that the autopoietic cognitive system constructs phenomenality through acts of fiat, which underlie perceptual completion effects and “filling in”—and, by implication, phenomenology in general. It creates phenomenality much as we create meaning in language, through the use of symbols that it assigns meaning in the context of an embodied evolutionary history that is the source of valuation upon which meaning depends. Phenomenality is a virtual representation to itself by an executive agent (the conscious self) tasked with monitoring the state of the organism and its environment, planning future action, and coordinating various sub- agencies. Consciousness is not epiphenomenal, but serves a function for higher organisms that is distinct from that of unconscious processing. While a strictly scientific solution to the hard problem is not possible for a science that excludes the subjectivity it seeks to explain, there is hope to at least psychologically bridge the explanatory gulf between mind and matter, and perhaps hope for a broader definition of science