565 research outputs found

    Bayesian interpolation

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    Although Bayesian analysis has been in use since Laplace, the Bayesian method of model-comparison has only recently been developed in depth. In this paper, the Bayesian approach to regularization and model-comparison is demonstrated by studying the inference problem of interpolating noisy data. The concepts and methods described are quite general and can be applied to many other data modeling problems. Regularizing constants are set by examining their posterior probability distribution. Alternative regularizers (priors) and alternative basis sets are objectively compared by evaluating the evidence for them. “Occam's razor” is automatically embodied by this process. The way in which Bayes infers the values of regularizing constants and noise levels has an elegant interpretation in terms of the effective number of parameters determined by the data set. This framework is due to Gull and Skilling

    Finding New Rules for Incomplete Theories: Induction with Explicit Biases in Varying Contexts

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    Many AI problem solvers possess explicitly encoded knowledge - a domain theory ““ that they use to solve problems. If these problem solvers are to be autonomous, they must be able to detect and to fill gaps in their own knowledge. The field of machine learning addresses this issue. Recently two disparate machine learning approaches have emerged as predominant in the field: explanation-based learning (EBL) and similarity-based learning (SBL), EBL and SBL have been applied to problems in a variety of domains. Both methods have clear problems, however, EBL assumes that a system is given an explicit theory of the domain that is complete, correct, and tractable. These assumptions are clearly unrealistic for most complex, real-world problems. SBL suffers because of its lack of an explicit theory of the domain. The simplicity of the method requires that human intervention playa large role in tailoring input examples and the features describing them in such a way as to allow a system to choose an appropriate set of features to define a concept. Biasing a system in this way may result in its being unable to discover all concepts in even a Single domain. Less tailoring of the examples leaves a system open to the possibility of not converging on the best definition for a concept, or any at all, due to the computational complexity. The research described in this proposal addresses a number of the problems found in explanation-based and similarity-based learning. The major focus of the research is the elimination of the assumption that the domain theory of an EBL system is complete. In particular, it considers the problem of working with an incomplete theory by suggesting a method by which gaps in an EBL system's knowledge can be detected and filled. We suggest that when EBL cannot derive a complete explanation, the partial explanation focus a context in which learning takes place. Information extracted from partial explanations, as well as from complete explanations, can be exploited by SBL to do better induction of the missing domain knowledge. The extracted information constitutes an explicit bias for similarity-based learning. A second problem to be addressed is that of making the biases of SBL explicit. Finally, all testing of the claims made in this proposal is to be done in the Gemini learning system. The development of the system addresses the goal of constructing an integrated learning architecture utilizing both EBL and SBL

    Mathematical modelling plant signalling networks

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    During the last two decades, molecular genetic studies and the completion of the sequencing of the Arabidopsis thaliana genome have increased knowledge of hormonal regulation in plants. These signal transduction pathways act in concert through gene regulatory and signalling networks whose main components have begun to be elucidated. Our understanding of the resulting cellular processes is hindered by the complex, and sometimes counter-intuitive, dynamics of the networks, which may be interconnected through feedback controls and cross-regulation. Mathematical modelling provides a valuable tool to investigate such dynamics and to perform in silico experiments that may not be easily carried out in a laboratory. In this article, we firstly review general methods for modelling gene and signalling networks and their application in plants. We then describe specific models of hormonal perception and cross-talk in plants. This sub-cellular analysis paves the way for more comprehensive mathematical studies of hormonal transport and signalling in a multi-scale setting

    Probing the neutrino mass hierarchy with CMB weak lensing

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    We forecast constraints on cosmological parameters with primary CMB anisotropy information and weak lensing reconstruction with a future post-Planck CMB experiment, the Cosmic Origins Explorer (COrE), using oscillation data on the neutrino mass splittings as prior information. Our MCMC simulations in flat models with a non-evolving equation-of-state of dark energy w give typical 68% upper bounds on the total neutrino mass of 0.136 eV and 0.098 eV for the inverted and normal hierarchies respectively, assuming the total summed mass is close to the minimum allowed by the oscillation data for the respective hierarchies (0.10 eV and 0.06 eV). Including information from future baryon acoustic oscillation measurements with the complete BOSS, Type 1a supernovae distance moduli from WFIRST, and a realistic prior on the Hubble constant, these upper limits shrink to 0.118 eV and 0.080 eV for the inverted and normal hierarchies, respectively. Addition of these distance priors also yields percent-level constraints on w. We find tension between our MCMC results and the results of a Fisher matrix analysis, most likely due to a strong geometric degeneracy between the total neutrino mass, the Hubble constant, and w in the unlensed CMB power spectra. If the minimal-mass, normal hierarchy were realised in nature, the inverted hierarchy should be disfavoured by the full data combination at typically greater than the 2-sigma level. For the minimal-mass inverted hierarchy, we compute the Bayes' factor between the two hierarchies for various combinations of our forecast datasets, and find that the future probes considered here should be able to provide `strong' evidence (odds ratio 12:1) for the inverted hierarchy. Finally, we consider potential biases of the other cosmological parameters from assuming the wrong hierarchy and find that all biases on the parameters are below their 1-sigma marginalised errors.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures; minor changes to match the published version, references adde

    A Survey of Machine Learning Systems Integrating Explanation-Based and Similarity-Based Methods

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    Two disparate machine learning approaches have received considerable attention. These are explanation-based and similarity-based learning. The basic goal of an explanation-based learning system is to more efficiently recognize concepts that it is already capable of recognizing. The learning process involves a knowledge-intensive analysis of an environment-provided example of a concept in order to extract its characteristic features. The basic goal of a similarity-based system, on the other hand, is to acquire descriptions that allow the system to recognize concepts it does not yet know. Although they have been applied with some success to problems in a variety of domains, both methods have clear deficiencies. Explanation-based learning assumes that a system will be provided with an explicit domain theory that is complete, correct, and tractable. This assumption is unrealistic for many complex, real-world domains. Similarity-based learning suffers because of its lack of an explicit theory. Since the two methods are complementary in nature, an obvious solution is to augment systems using one approach with techniques from the other. This survey discusses machine learning systems that integrate explanation-based and similarity-based learning methods such that one is incorporated primarily to handle a deficiency of the other. Although sufficient background material is provided that the reader need not be familiar with machine learning, general knowledge of AI is assumed

    Conundrum of combinatorial complexity

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