Multistage Stochastic Portfolio Optimisation in Deregulated Electricity Markets Using Linear Decision Rules

The deregulation of electricity markets increases the financial risk faced by retailers who procure electric energy on the spot market to meet their customers’ electricity demand. To hedge against this exposure, retailers often hold a portfolio of electricity derivative contracts. In this paper, we propose a multistage stochastic mean-variance optimisation model for the management of such a portfolio. To reduce computational complexity, we perform two approximations: stage-aggregation and linear decision rules (LDR). The LDR approach consists of restricting the set of decision rules to those affine in the history of the random parameters. When applied to mean-variance optimisation models, it leads to convex quadratic programs. Since their size grows typically only polynomially with the number of periods, they can be efficiently solved. Our numerical experiments illustrate the value of adaptivity inherent in the LDR method and its potential for enabling scalability to problems with many periods.OR in energy, electricity portfolio management, stochastic programming, risk management, linear decision rules

Carbon Free Boston: Energy Technical Report

Part of a series of reports that includes: Carbon Free Boston: Summary Report; Carbon Free Boston: Social Equity Report; Carbon Free Boston: Technical Summary; Carbon Free Boston: Buildings Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Transportation Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Waste Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Offsets Technical Report; Available at http://sites.bu.edu/cfb/INTRODUCTION: The adoption of clean energy in Boston’s buildings and transportation systems will produce sweeping changes in the quantity and composition of the city’s demand for fuel and electricity. The demand for electricity is expected to increase by 2050, while the demand for petroleum-based liquid fuels and natural gas within the city is projected to decline significantly. The city must meet future energy demand with clean energy sources in order to meet its carbon mitigation targets. That clean energy must be procured in a way that supports the City’s goals for economic development, social equity, environmental sustainability, and overall quality of life. This chapter examines the strategies to accomplish these goals. Improved energy efficiency, district energy, and in-boundary generation of clean energy (rooftop PV) will reduce net electric power and natural gas demand substantially, but these measures will not eliminate the need for electricity and gas (or its replacement fuel) delivered into Boston. Broadly speaking, to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the city must therefore (1) reduce its use of fossil fuels to heat and cool buildings through cost-effective energy efficiency measures and electrification of building thermal services where feasible; and (2) over time, increase the amount of carbon-free electricity delivered to the city. Reducing energy demand though cost effective energy conservation measures will be necessary to reduce the challenges associated with expanding the electricity delivery system and sustainably sourcing renewable fuels.Published versio

Selection of Wood Supply Contracts to Reduce Cost in the Presence of Risks in Procurement Planning

Les activités d'achat dans l'industrie des pâtes et papiers représentent une part importante du coût global de la chaîne d'approvisionnement. Les décideurs prévoient l'approvisionnement en bois requis jusqu'à un an à l'avance afin de garantir le volume d'approvisionnement pour le processus de production en continu dans leur usine. Des contrats réguliers, flexibles et d'options avec des fournisseurs de différents groupes sont disponibles. Les fournisseurs sont regroupés en fonction de caractéristiques communes, telles que la propriété des terres forestières. Cependant, lors de l'exécution du plan, des risques affectent les opérations d'approvisionnement. Si les risques ne sont pas intégrés dans le processus de planification des achats, l'atténuation de leur impact sera generalement coûteuse et compliquée. Des contrats ad hoc coûteux supplémentaires pourraient être nécessaires pour compenser le manque de livraisons. Pour aborder ce problème dans cette thèse, dans un premier projet, un modèle mathématique déterministe des opérations d'approvisionnement est développé. L'objectif du modèle est de proposer un plan d'approvisionnement annuel pour minimiser le coût total des opérations relatives. Les opérations sont soumises à des contraintes telles qu’une proportion minimale de l'offre par chaque groupe de fournisseurs, des niveaux cibles des stocks, de la satisfaction de la demande, la capacité par la cour à bois et la capacité du procédé de mise en copeaux. Les décisions sont liées à la sélection des contrats d'approvisionnement, à l'ouverture de cour à bois et aux flux du bois. Dans un deuxième projet, une évaluation du plan d'approvisionnement à partir du modèle déterministe du premier projet est effectuée en utilisant une approche de simulation Monte Carlo. Trois stratégies contractuelles différentes sont comparées : fixes, flexibles et une combinaison des deux types des contrats. L'approche de simulation de ce projet évalue la performance du plan par la valeur attendue et la variabilité du coût total, lorsque le plan est exécuté pendant l'horizon de planification. Dans un troisième projet, une approche de programmation stochastique en deux étapes est utilisée pour fournir un plan d'approvisionnement fiable. L'objectif du modèle est de minimiser le coût prévu du plan d'approvisionnement en présence de différents scénarios générés en fonction des risques. Les décisions lors de la première étape sont la sélection des contrats dans la première période et l'ouverture des cours à bois. Les décisions de la deuxième étape concernent la sélection des contrats commençant après la première période, les flux, l'inventaire et la production du procédé de la mise en copeaux. iii L'étude de cas utilisée dans cette thèse est inspirée par Domtar, une entreprise des pâtes et papiers située au Québec, Canada. Les résultats des trois projets de cette thèse aident les décideurs à réduire les contraintes humaines liées à la planification complexe des achats. Les modèles mathématiques développés fournissent une base pour l'évaluation de la stratégie d'approvisionnement sélectionnée. Cette tâche est presque impossible avec les approches actuelles de l'entreprise, car les évaluations nécessitent la formulation de risques d'approvisionnement. L'approche de programmation stochastique montre de meilleurs résultats financiers par rapport à la planification déterministe, avec une faible variabilité dans l'atténuation de l'impact des risques.Procurement activities in the pulp and paper industry account for an important part of the overall supply chain cost. Procurement decision-makers plan for the required wood supply up to one year in advance to guarantee the supply volume for the continuous production process at their mill. Regular, flexible and option contracts with suppliers in different groups are available. Suppliers are grouped based on common characteristics such as forestland ownership. However, during the execution of the plan, sourcing risks affect procurement operations. If risks are not integrated into the procurement planning process, mitigating their impact is likely to be expensive and complicated. Additional expensive ad hoc contracts might be required to compensate for the lack of deliveries. To tackle this problem, the first project of this thesis demonstrates the development of a deterministic mathematical model of procurement operations. The objective of the model is to propose an annual procurement plan to minimize the total cost of procurement operations. The operations are subject to constraints such as the minimum share of supply for each group of suppliers, inventory target levels, demand, woodyard capacity, and chipping process capacity. The decisions are related to the selection of sourcing contracts, woodyards opening, and wood supply flow. In the second project, an evaluation of the procurement plan from the deterministic model from project one is performed by using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Three different strategies are compared as fixed, flexible, and a mix of both contracts. The simulation approach in this project evaluates the performance of the plan by the expected value and variability of the total cost when the plan is executed during the planning horizon. In the third project, a two-stage stochastic programming approach is used to provide a reliable procurement plan. The objective of the model is to minimize the expected cost of the procurement plan in the presence of different scenarios generated based on sourcing risks. First-stage decisions are the selection of contracts in the first period and the opening of woodyards. Second-stage decisions concern the selection of contracts starting after the first period, flow, inventory, and chipping process production. The case study used in this thesis was inspired by Domtar, which is a pulp and paper company located in Quebec, Canada. The results of three projects in this doctoral dissertation support decision-makers to reduce the human limitation in performing complicated procurement planning. The developed mathematical models provide a basis to evaluate the selected procurement strategy. This task is nearly impossible with current approaches in the company, as the evaluations require the formulation of v sourcing risks. The stochastic programming approach shows better financial results comparing to deterministic planning, with low variability in mitigating the impact of risks

Market Design for Generation Adequacy: Healing Causes rather than Symptoms

Keywords JEL Classification This paper argues that electricity market reform – particularly the need for complementary mechanisms to remunerate capacity – need to be analysed in the light of the local regulatory and institutional environment. If there is a lack of investment, the priority should be to identify the roots of the problem. The lack of demand side response, short-term reliability management procedures and uncompetitive ancillary services procurement often undermine market reflective scarcity pricing and distort long-term investment incentives. The introduction of a capacity mechanism should come as an optional supplement to wholesale and ancillary markets improvements. Priority reforms should focus on encouraging demand side responsiveness and reducing scarcity price distortions introduced by balancing and congestion management through better dialog between network engineers and market operators. electricity market, generation adequacy, market design, capacity mechanis

Generation Adequacy and Investment Incentives in Britain: from the Pool to NETA

Three years after the controversial change of the British market design from compulsory Pool with capacity payments to decentralised energy-only New Electricity Trading Arrangements (NETA) market framework, we compare the two designs in terms of investment incentives. We review the biases of the Pool capacity payments design, the drought of investment following the introduction of NETA, and the reaction of the market during the first “stress-test” of NETA during the winter 2003. In an energy-only market such as NETA, it is essential that price signals are right and the system operator has a crucial role in contracting ahead for reserve. We recommend that NETA adopt a single marginal imbalance price as dual imbalance pricing distorts price signals in times of scarcity. The lack of long-term contracting that causes hedging and financing difficulties for power projects can becompensated by vertical and horizontal reintegration at a cost of increased market power

Inventory Management and Financial Hedging of Storable Commodities

Under revision for resubmitting to Management Science</p

The floating contract between risk-averse supply chain partners in a volatile commodity price environment

In this dissertation, two separate but closely related decision making problems in environments of volatile commodity prices are addressed. In the first problem, a risk-averse commodity user\u27s purchasing policy and his risk-neutral supplier\u27s pricing decision, where the user can purchase his needs through contract with his supplier as well as directly from the spot market, are analyzed. The commodity user is assumed to be the supplier\u27s sole client, and the supplier can always expand capacity, at a cost to the user, to accommodate the user\u27s demand in excess of initially reserved capacity. In the more generalized second problem, both parties (commodity user and supplier) are assumed to be risk averse, and both can directly access the spot market. In addition to making pricing decisions, the supplier is also faced with the challenge of establishing the right combination of in-house production and spot market engagements to manage her risk of exposure to spot price volatility under the contract. While the supplier has a frictionless buy and sell access to the spot market, the user can only access this market for buying purposes and incurs an access fee that is linearly increasing in the purchased volume. In both problems, by adopting the mean-variance criterion to reflect aversion to risk, the decisions of both parties are explicitly characterized. Based on analytical results and numerical studies, managerial insights as to how changes in the model\u27s parameters would affect each party\u27s decisions are offered at length, and the implications of these results to the manager are discussed. A focal point for the dissertation is the consideration of a floating contract, the landing price of which is contingent on the realization of the commodity\u27s spot market price at the time of delivery. It was found that if properly designed, not only can this dynamic pricing arrangement strategically position a long-term supplier against spot market competition, but it also has the added benefit of leading to improved supply chain expected profits compared to a locked-in contract price setting. Another key finding is that when making her pricing decisions, the supplier runs the risk of overestimating the commodity user\u27s vulnerability at higher levels of the user\u27s aversion to risk as well as at higher volatility of spot prices

Different Approaches to Supply Adequacy in Electricity Markets

This paper studies the electricity market design long run problem of ensuring enough generation capacity to meet future demand (resource adequacy). Reform processes worldwide have shown that it is difficult for the market alone to provide incentives to attract enough investment in capacity reserves due to technical and institutional features. We study several measures that have been proposed internationally to cope with this problem including strategic reserves, capacity payments, capacity requirements, and call options. The analytical and practical strengths and weaknesses of each approach are discussed .Supply adequacy, electricity markets