The European Flood Alert System - Part 1: Concept and Development

This paper presents the development of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), which aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing local water authorities with medium-range and probabilistic flood forecasting information 3 to 10 days in advance. The EFAS research project started in 2003 with the development of a prototype at the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), in close collaboration with the national hydrological and meteorological services. The prototype covers the whole of Europe on a 5 km grid. In parallel, different high-resolution data sets have been collected for the Elbe and Danube river basins, allowing the potential of the system under optimum conditions and on a higher resolution, to be assessed. Flood warning lead-times of 3-10 days are achieved through the incorporation of medium-range weather forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), comprising a full set of 51 probabilistic forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provided by ECMWF. The ensemble of different hydrographs is analysed and combined to produce early flood warning information, which is disseminated to the hydrological services that have agreed to participate in the development of the system. In Part I of this paper, the scientific approach adopted in development of the system is presented. The rational of the project, the system¿s set-up, its underlying components, basic principles, and products, are described. In Part II, results of a detailed statistical analysis of the performance of the system are shown, with regard to both probabilistic and deterministic forecastsJRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

The European Flood Alert System – Part 1: Concept and development

International audienceThis paper presents the development of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), which aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing local water authorities with medium-range and probabilistic flood forecasting information 3 to 10 days in advance. The EFAS research project started in 2003 with the development of a prototype at the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), in close collaboration with the national hydrological and meteorological services. The prototype covers the whole of Europe on a 5 km grid. In parallel, different high-resolution data sets have been collected for the Elbe and Danube river basins, allowing the potential of the system under optimum conditions and on a higher resolution, to be assessed. Flood warning lead-times of 3–10 days are achieved through the incorporation of medium-range weather forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), comprising a full set of 51 probabilistic forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provided by ECMWF. The ensemble of different hydrographs is analysed and combined to produce early flood warning information, which is disseminated to the hydrological services that have agreed to participate in the development of the system. In Part 1 of this paper, the scientific approach adopted in development of the system is presented. The rational of the project, the system's set-up, its underlying components, basic principles, and products, are described. In Part 2, results of a detailed statistical analysis of the performance of the system are shown, with regard to both probabilistic and deterministic forecast

The European Flood Alert System - Part I: Concept and Development

Abstract This paper presents the development of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), which aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing local water authorities with medium-range and probabilistic flood forecasting information 3 to 10 days in advance. The EFAS research project started in 2003 with the development of a prototype at the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), in close collaboration with the national hydrological and meteorological services. The prototype covers the whole of Europe on a 5 km grid. In parallel, different high-resolution data sets have been collected for the Elbe and Danube river basins, allowing the potential of the system under optimum conditions and on a higher resolution to be assessed. Flood warning lead-times of 3-10 days are achieved through the incorporation of medium-range weather forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), comprising a full set of 51 probabilistic forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provided by ECMWF. The ensemble of different hydrographs is analysed and combined to produce early flood warning information, which is disseminated to the hydrological services that have agreed to participate in the development of the system. In Part I of this paper, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system is presented. The rational of the project, the system¿s set-up, its underlying components, basic principles and products are described. In Part II, results of a detailed statistical analysis of the performance of the system are shown, with regard to both probabilistic and deterministic forecasts.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Probabilistic flood loss modelling for residential buildings

Hochwasser stellt ein großes Risiko für Wohngebäude in Europa dar, und es wird erwartet, dass das Risiko in der Zukunft aufgrund klimatischer und sozioökonomischer Veränderungen zunehmen wird. Aktuelle Hochwasserrisikomodelle basieren meist auf einfachen Wasserstands-Schadenskurven. Diese Ansätze vereinfachen die Hochwasserschadensprozesse stark, können ungenau sein und bergen große Unsicherheiten, die oft nicht quantifiziert. Die Doktorarbeit stellt die Integration neuer Daten in probabilistische, multivariable Schadensmodelle zur Verbesserung ihrer Übertragbarkeit vor. Diese neuen Datenquellen und Modellierungsansätze werden verwendet, um zukünftige Veränderung des Hochwasserrisikos für Wohngebäude in Europa abzuschätzen und Risikokomponenten zu analysieren. Die Arbeit zeigt, OpenStreetMap (OSM) Daten liefern nützliche Informationen für die Modellierung von Hochwasserschäden und ermöglichen Modelltransfers. Die Integration von aus OSM abgeleiteten Gebäudeeigenschaften und Hochwassererfahrung aus Ereignisdatenbanken in das Bayes’sche Netzwerk basierte Hochwasserschadensmodelle für den privaten Sektor (BN-FLEMOps) ermöglichte die Implementierung auf der Mesoskala. Durch Vergleiche von Schadensschätzungen mit beobachteten Schäden in mehreren Fallstudien in Europa wurde das Modell validiert und detailliert mit einem Ensemble aus 20 Schadensmodellen verglichen. In einer abschließenden Studie werden die zukünftigen Veränderungen des Risikos für Wohngebäude in Europa modelliert. Die erwarteten jährlichen Schäden bis zum Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts werden um das 10-fache ansteigen. Die Britischen Inseln und der größte Teil von Zentral-Europa müssen mit einer starken Risikozunahme rechnen. Teile Skandinaviens und des Mittelmeerraums werden dagegen ein stagnierendes oder abnehmendes Hochwasserrisiko verzeichnen. Eine Verbesserung der privaten Vorsorgemaßnahmen könnte das Hochwasserrisiko im Mittel um 15 % und in einigen europäischen Regionen um bis zu 20 % verringern.Flooding poses great risks for residential buildings in Europe and is expected to increase in the future, driven by climatic and socio-economic change. Current flood risk models rely mostly on simple stage-damage curves for flood loss estimation. This approach oversimplifies flood damage processes, can be inaccurate and harbour large uncertainties that often are not quantified and transparently communicated. This thesis presents research that integrates new data sources into probabilistic, multi-variable loss models to improve their transferability. These new data sources and approaches are used to estimate future fluvial flood risk change for residential buildings in Europe. Contributions of the three risk components, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are analysed and compared independently and in combination. OpenStreetMap (OSM) data are identified as a valuable source of information for flood loss modelling and enables model transfers while retaining high predictive performance. Integrating OSM derived building characteristics and flood experience information from flood event databases into the Bayesian Network Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the private sector (BN-FLEMOps) enables the spatio-temporal and scale transformation of the model. The model is validated with reported losses in multiple case studies in Europe and compared in detail with a model ensemble of 20 internationally published flood loss models. In a final study, the future flood risk changes for residential buildings in Europe are modelled. The expected annual damage will increase up to 10-fold until the end of the 21st century. Most of Central Europe and the British Isles have to expect strong risk increases. Parts of Scandinavia and the Mediterranean on the other hand will see stagnating or decreasing fluvial flood risk. Improving private precaution could reduce flood risk by 15 % on average and up to 20 % in some European regions

‘Risks’ as a justification for, and a challenge to, European territorial co-operation

Under the new ‘European territorial Co-operation’ objective of the EU’s cohesion policy the programmes for the funding period 2007-2013 refer to ‘natural’, ’environmental’ or ‘flood’ risks. To reduce these risks, activities are funded which allow for better risk assessment, control, prevention, and management. The subject of the paper is an analysis of whether and how environmental and natural risks were in the past addressed. Based on this, the draft programmes for the new funding period will be examined. The key questions are as follows: How do European territorial co-operation programmes approach risks of various kinds? And secondly, the structural funds provide a considerable amount of funding for dealing with risks - but do the funds also encourage appropriate actions in response to the risks identified? The paper will analyse how programme actors and project partners react to risks and how they approach risk reduction or prevention. Examples are taken from the INTERREG III B CADSES programme (2000-2006) and from the preparation of its follow-up programmes for European Territorial Co-operation in Central Europe and South-Eastern Europe (2007-2013)

‘Risks’ as a justification for, and a challenge to, European territorial co-operation

Under the new ‘European territorial Co-operation’ objective of the EU’s cohesion policy the programmes for the funding period 2007-2013 refer to ‘natural’, ’environmental’ or ‘flood’ risks. To reduce these risks, activities are funded which allow for better risk assessment, control, prevention, and management. The subject of the paper is an analysis of whether and how environmental and natural risks were in the past addressed. Based on this, the draft programmes for the new funding period will be examined. The key questions are as follows: How do European territorial co-operation programmes approach risks of various kinds? And secondly, the structural funds provide a considerable amount of funding for dealing with risks - but do the funds also encourage appropriate actions in response to the risks identified? The paper will analyse how programme actors and project partners react to risks and how they approach risk reduction or prevention. Examples are taken from the INTERREG III B CADSES programme (2000-2006) and from the preparation of its follow-up programmes for European Territorial Co-operation in Central Europe and South-Eastern Europe (2007-2013)