Assessing Financial Vulnerability in the Nonprofit Sector

Effective nonprofit governance relies upon understanding an organization's financial condition and vulnerabilities. However, financial vulnerability of nonprofit organizations is a relatively new area of study. In this paper, we compare two models used to forecast bankruptcy in the corporate sector (Altman 1968 and Ohlson 1980) with the model used by nonprofit researchers (Tuckman and Chang 1991). We find that the Ohlson model has higher explanatory power than either Tuckman and Chang's or Altman's in predicting four different measures of financial vulnerability. However, we show that none of the models, individually or combined, are effective in predicting financial distress. We then propose a more comprehensive model of financial vulnerability by adding two new variables to represent reliance on commercial-type activities to generate revenues and endowment sufficiency. We find that this model outperforms Ohlson's model and performs substantially better in explaining and predicting financial vulnerability. Hence, the expanded model can be used as a guide for understanding the drivers of financial vulnerability and for identifying more effective proxies for nonprofit sector financial distress for use in future research. This publication is Hauser Center Working Paper No. 27. The Hauser Center Working Paper Series was launched during the summer of 2000. The Series enables the Hauser Center to share with a broad audience important works-in-progress written by Hauser Center scholars and researchers

A Comparative Analysis Of The Effectiveness Of Three Solvency Management Models

The introduction of the Altman’s Z-score model in 1983 and much recently the Enyi’s Relative Solvency Ratio model in 2005 has divergently provided financial analysts with alternative methods of analyzing corporate solvency which hitherto was exclusively done using the traditional historical record based ratio analysis, with particular reference to the current ratio. To test the relevance and effectiveness of the three models, real life performance data were extracted from the annual reports of 7 quoted companies, analyzed using the three models and the results compared to show the strengths and weaknesses of each. The result revealed that the current ratio and the Z-score models suffer from many limitations including imprecision while the Relative Solvency Ratio combines the capability of an effective indicator with the precision required of a true predictor

Small, alone and poor: a merciless portrait of insolvent French firms, 2007-2010

This empirical paper investigates the path to bankruptcy for a sample of French firms in default, in particular the decision to file a petition for bankruptcy, the arbitrage between rescuing and liquidation and the effective survival. The procedure is depicted as a sequence of three steps in which judges play a crucial role as they decide whether a company is insolvent or not and determine whether an insolvent company deserves to be rescued or, on the contrary, should be liquidated, the market having the last word since the effective success depends on the capability of the firm to recover from the judicial proceedings. We test different hypotheses about the variables influencing each possibility which include i) the role of the market in the firm's health, ii) the influence of financial structures, iii) the importance of corporate governance and iv) the inherent corporate factors of probable survival. Using three linked LOGIT models, our first finding is that the probability to default depends mainly on the market. Secondly the probability to be rescued depends essentially on the financial structure. Finally, the probability for the firm to remain in business in the long term is largely influenced by the market and profitability. Our results also support the idea that governance, size and resources are the main determinants of exit from the market or success of any company.Insolvency, bankruptcy, firm default, financial indicators, size, logit models.

The probability of default in internal ratings based (IRB) models in Basel II: an application of the rough sets methodology

El nuevo Acuerdo de Capital de junio de 2004 (Basilea II) da cabida e incentiva la implantación de modelos propios para la medición de los riesgos financieros en las entidades de crédito. En el trabajo que presentamos nos centramos en los modelos internos para la valoración del riesgo de crédito (IRB) y concretamente en la aproximación a uno de sus componentes: la probabilidad de impago (PD). Los métodos tradicionales usados para la modelización del riesgo de crédito, como son el análisis discriminante y los modelos logit y probit, parten de una serie de restricciones estadísticas. La metodología rough sets se presenta como una alternativa a los métodos estadísticos clásicos, salvando las limitaciones de estos. En nuestro trabajo aplicamos la metodología rought sets a una base de datos, compuesta por 106 empresas, solicitantes de créditos, con el objeto de obtener aquellos ratios que mejor discriminan entre empresas sanas y fallidas, así como una serie de reglas de decisión que ayudarán a detectar las operaciones potencialmente fallidas, como primer paso en la modelización de la probabilidad de impago. Por último, enfrentamos los resultados obtenidos con los alcanzados con el análisis discriminante clásico, para concluir que la metodología de los rough sets presenta mejores resultados de clasificación, en nuestro caso.The new Capital Accord of June 2004 (Basel II) opens the way for and encourages credit entities to implement their own models for measuring financial risks. In the paper presented, we focus on the use of internal rating based (IRB) models for the assessment of credit risk and specifically on the approach to one of their components: probability of default (PD). In our study we apply the rough sets methodology to a database composed of 106 companies, applicants for credit, with the object of obtaining those ratios that discriminate best between healthy and bankrupt companies, together with a series of decision rules that will help to detect the operations potentially in default, as a first step in modelling the probability of default. Lastly, we compare the results obtained against those obtained using classic discriminant análisis. We conclude that the rough sets methodology presents better risk classification results.Junta de Andalucía P06-SEJ-0153

A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models

This note is intended to share some observations regarding a non-exhaustive collection of the early warning literature from 1971 to 2011. Evolution of the interest in early warning models, methodological spectrum of studies and coverage of economic variables are briefly discussed in addition to providing a bibliography.Early warning systems, bibliometric analysis

Corporate Distress and Restructuring with Macroeconomic Fluctuations: The Cases of GM and Ford

Traditional methods for evaluating corporate credit risk rarely consider the impact of the macro economy on corporate value and performance. We argue that lenders and management can obtain valuable information about the need for and approach to restructuring by decomposing default predictions into "intrinsic" and macroeconomic factors. We apply a method previously used for measuring macroeconomic exposures on default predictions in order to filter out macroeconomic factors. In this paper the method is applied on an analysis of the Z-scores for GM and Ford for the period 1996–2005. The macro economy has affected the two firms in different ways with implications for managements' and creditors' approaches to restoring their financial health.Credit Risk; Creditworthiness; Z-Scores; Default Predictions; GM; Ford; Restructuring; Macroeconomic Exposure

Assessing the legality of coercive restructuring tactics in uk exchange offers

This article discusses bondholder exchange offers, a useful private debtrestructuring technique. In a typical offer, an under-performing issuer will seek to exchange its old bonds for new bonds with economically less favourable terms to bondholders, thus deleveraging the issuer without the difficulties of a formal insolvency process. Some issuers seek to incentivise their bondholders to accept these new, less favourable bonds by using coercive tactics, such as ‘exit consents’ and ‘covenant strips’. While lawful in the US, the English courts have only recently considered them for the first time in relation to English Law bonds. The Assénagon case declared an egregious coercive tactic invalid on the basis of an old company law principle, casting doubt on the validity of other coercive tactics. This principle (the’abuse principle’) originally restricted the abuse of minority shareholders by the majority, but is now also applicable to debt security voting arrangements. This article examines the abuse principle through the cases and discusses its potential application to other forms of coercive tactics in exchange offers. The article argues that where a coercive tactic is used purely to compel bondholders to exchange their bonds, this will contravene the abuse principle. The use of coercive tactics may however still be consistent with the abuse principle and Assénagon. An issuer will need to show that ‘reasonable men’ could see the tactic as beneficial for the class of bondholders, even though its use might adversely affect non-exchanging bondholders. A potential permissible example is a covenant strip that removes a restriction on asset disposals in order to facilitate a disposal pursuant to a restructuring

CORPORATE FINANCIAL HEALTH ASSESSMENT: METHODS AND TOOLS FOR EMERGING MARKETS

В статье рассматриваются методические подходы к оценке корпоративного финансового здоровья. Цель исследования заключалась в систематизации соответствующих методов и инструментов в контексте инвестиционного мониторинга с акцентом на уровень финансового развития. Методология исследования базировалась на допущении о трех ключевых теоретических основах оценки финансового здоровья корпораций: прогнозирование банкротства, инвестиционный анализ и оценка финансовых систем. Основной предпосылкой исследования являлось то, что выбор методов и инструментов оценки финансового здоровья корпораций на формирующихся рынках лежит в области моделей прогнозирования банкротства. Кроме того, целесообразно проанализировать потенциал структурных моделей прогнозирования банкротства, принципы которых наиболее тесно связаны с инвестиционным анализом. Наконец, результаты систематизации методических подходов в области исследований необходимо скорректировать с учетом инструментария оценки финансовых систем. Исследование показало, что специфика оценки финансового здоровья корпораций на формирующихся рынках связана с ее теоретическим, методологическим и информационным обеспечением. Фокус соответствующих методов и инструментов остается в плоскости моделей прогнозирования банкротства. Модели, основанные на рыночных показателях, могут применяться к публичным компаниям, однако их применимость должна проверяться с учетом информационных ограничений. Факторы корпоративного финансового здоровья, в свою очередь, могут быть подразделены на рыночные и специфические, корректируемые на уровень финансового развития.The paper address the methodological approaches to the corporate financial health assessment. The research purpose was to systematize corresponding methods and tools in the context of investment monitoring, with an emphasis on the level of financial development. The research methodology was based on the assumption that there are three key theoretical foundations for corporate financial health assessment: bankruptcy prediction, investment analysis and financial systems assessment. The main prerequisite of the research is that the choice of methods and tools to the corporate financial health assessment in emerging markets lies in the field of bankruptcy prediction models. Besides, it is advisable to analyze the potential of structural models for bankruptcy prediction, the principles of which are most closely related to investment analysis. Finally, the results of methodological approaches systematization in the research field need to be adjusted to the instruments of financial systems assessment. The research shows that the specifics of corporate financial health assessment in the emerging markets is associated with its theoretical, methodological and informational support. The focus of relevant methods and tools remains in the plane of bankruptcy prediction models. The models based on market indicators can be applied to public companies, but their applicability should be tested taking into account information limitations. Factors of corporate financial health, in turn, can be subdivided into market and specific ones, being adjusted for the level of financial development

Factors affecting the conclusion of an arrangement in restructuring proceedings: evidence from Poland

The EU Restructuring Directive (2019/1023) requires Member States to provide a preventive restructuring framework for financially distressed entities that remain viable or are likely to readily restore economic viability. The first step to a successful restructuring is the approval of an arrangement between the debtor and creditors. The main research objective of the article is to identify factors affecting the conclusion of an arrangement in restructuring proceedings. In the process of filtering companies initiating a restructuring procedure, these factors are seen as increasing the probability of concluding an arrangement between debtor and creditors. Moreover, an additional research objective is to construct a turnaround prediction model aimed at assessing the probability of a conclusion of an arrangement in restructuring proceedings. The study covered the companies in Poland for which restructuring proceedings opened between 2016 and 2021 ended with the approval of an arrangement, and a similar number of companies that failed to restructure successfully. Binary logistic regression was applied to achieve the aims of this study. The results show that two financial variables affected companies in terms of their chances to conclude the arrangement: the current ratio and return on assets were among the statistically significant indicators and they are characterized by higher values for debtors reaching the arrangement with their creditors. A direct positive relationship was also identified between the company’s lifespan and the outcome of the proceedings. The probability of the conclusion of the arrangement was also affected by the type of industry. Models assessing the probability of completing restructuring proceedings with an arrangement can be useful for insolvency practitioners and financial analysts during viability assessments.The EU Restructuring Directive (2019/1023) requires Member States to provide a preventive restructuring framework for financially distressed entities that remain viable or are likely to readily restore economic viability. The first step to a successful restructuring is the approval of an arrangement between the debtor and creditors. The main research objective of the article is to identify factors affecting the conclusion of an arrangement in restructuring proceedings. In the process of filtering companies initiating a restructuring procedure, these factors are seen as increasing the probability of concluding an arrangement between debtor and creditors. Moreover, an additional research objective is to construct a turnaround prediction model aimed at assessing the probability of a conclusion of an arrangement in restructuring proceedings. The study covered the companies in Poland for which restructuring proceedings opened between 2016 and 2021 ended with the approval of an arrangement, and a similar number of companies that failed to restructure successfully. Binary logistic regression was applied to achieve the aims of this study. The results show that two financial variables affected companies in terms of their chances to conclude the arrangement: the current ratio and return on assets were among the statistically significant indicators and they are characterized by higher values for debtors reaching the arrangement with their creditors. A direct positive relationship was also identified between the company’s lifespan and the outcome of the proceedings. The probability of the conclusion of the arrangement was also affected by the type of industry. Models assessing the probability of completing restructuring proceedings with an arrangement can be useful for insolvency practitioners and financial analysts during viability assessments