Reconciling model and information uncertainty in development appraisal

This paper investigates the effect of choices of model structure and scale in development viability appraisal. The paper addresses two questions concerning the application of development appraisal techniques to viability modelling within the UK planning system. The first relates to the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the choice of model structure significantly affects model outputs. The second concerns the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the level of model complexity significantly affects model outputs. Monte Carlo simulation procedures are applied to a hypothetical development scheme in order to measure the effects of model aggregation and structure on model output variance. It is concluded that, given the particular scheme modelled and unavoidably subjective assumptions of input variance, simple and simplistic models may produce similar outputs to more robust and disaggregated models

Fit for planning? An evaluation of the application of development viability appraisal models in the UK planning system

The aim of this paper is to critically examine the application of development appraisal to viability assessment in the planning system. This evaluation is of development appraisal models in general and also their use in particular applications associated with estimating planning obligation capacity. The paper is organised into four themes: · The context and conceptual basis for development viability appraisal · A review of development viability appraisal methods · A discussion of selected key inputs into a development viability appraisal · A discussion of the applications of development viability appraisals in the planning system It is assumed that readers are familiar with the basic models and information needs of development viability appraisal rather than at the cutting edge of practice and/or academ

Reconciling Model and Information Uncertainty in Development Appraisal

This paper investigates the effect of choices of model structure and scale in development viability appraisal. The paper addresses two questions concerning the application of development appraisal techniques to viability modelling within the UK planning system. The first relates to the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the choice of model structure significantly affects model outputs. The second concerns the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the level of model complexity significantly affects model outputs. Monte Carlo simulation procedures are applied to a hypothetical development scheme in order to measure the effects of model aggregation and structure on model output variance. It is concluded that, given the particular scheme modelled and unavoidably subjective assumptions of input variance, simple and simplistic models may produce similar outputs to more robust and disaggregated models.

Asset pricing models, the labour theory of value and their implications for accounting

The paper analyses the social components of two theories of central importance to accounting and finance. It shows that modern finance theory is unable to account for value and that although its canon and major assumptions successfully obfuscate real social relations, they do not provide an alternative explanation of those relations. The paper also argues that although Marx’s Capital uses accounting formulations to analyse capitalism, it does not provide a means of advancing accounting theory per se. In the spirit of further extending the analytical approach, Marx’s method is developed to include managerial and labour rents and the socialisation of capital, which when coupled with analytical techniques of modern finance and accounting, provides a basis for the critical analysis of capitalism. The paper shows that, by analysing the dialectical inter-relation of the means of production with the social relations of production, Marx’s method can be extended to provide an understanding of several important aspects capitalism

Corruption and Resource Allocation: Evidence from China

Exploiting a unique data set containing transactions data from a panel of 769 Chinese state-owned enterprises between 1980 and 1989, this paper tests microeconomic implications of a pervasive form of corruption --official diversion of under-priced, in-plan goods to the market. Corruption has the predicted effects on resource allocation. Official under-pricing of in-plan goods, which lowers the marginal cost of diversion, increases the procurement of output into the plan for the purpose of diversion. Market competition introduced by allowing firms to sell directly to the market appears to reduce corruption and therefore lessen its distortions.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39780/3/wp396.pd

Precisely Wrong or Roughly Right? An Evaluation of Development Viability

This paper investigates the effect of choices of model structure and scale in development viability appraisal. The paper addresses two questions concerning the application of development appraisal techniques to viability modelling within the UK planning system. The first relates to the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the choice of model structure significantly affects model outputs. The second concerns the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the level of model complexity significantly affects model outputs. Monte Carlo simulation procedures are applied to a hypothetical development scheme in order to measure the effects of model aggregation and structure on model output variance. It is concluded that, given the particular scheme modelled and unavoidably subjective assumptions of input variance, that simple and simplistic models may produce similar outputs to more robust and disaggregated models.

MCA4climate: A Practical Framework for Planning Pro-Development Climate Policy

MCA4climate is a major new UNEP initiative providing 1 Introduction practical assistance to governments in preparing their climate change mitigation and adaptation plans and strategies. It aims to help governments, particularly in developing countries, identify policies and measures that are low cost, environmentally effective and consistent with national development goals. It does this by providing a structured approach to assessing and prioritizing climate-policy options, while taking into consideration associated social, economic, environmental and institutional costs and benefits. In doing so, it seeks to counter the widely held perception that tackling climate change is costly, highlight the potential developmental benefits of addressing climate change and encourage action to that end

Decomposition of the efficiency of the Chinese state-owned commercial banks at the provincial level

This study adopts a bank production function approach to the measurement of banking efficiency at the provincial level in the Chinese state-owned commercial banking sector from 1998 to 2003. Applying Data Envelopment Analysis and efficiency decomposition analysis, this paper has revealed a significant level of pure technical input inefficiency and, to a lesser extent, scale inefficiency across the provincial branches of all the banking groups. The study has also uncovered the extent of inefficiency in individual banking inputs and provincial branches. Finally, the provincial-level efficiency is further decomposed into within-banking-group and between-banking-group effects

GIS-based approach for assessing the energy potential and the financial feasibility of run-off-river hydro-power in Alpine valleys

In the last decade, European attractive policies are favoring the construction of new run-off hydro-power plants. The realization cost of these plants is quite low in mountain areas thanks to small water discharges and high gross heads. For this reason, small rivers have been strongly exploited without considering an optimal use of the resource. Nowadays, available sites are often in areas with low accessibility and a greater specific cost of civil engineering works. However, during the planning of new small hydro-power plants, the dependency of physical, technical, legal and financial variable on space is often not assessed. The tool presented in this paper addresses this gap to support the planning of run-off-river plants. The method improves on previous approaches by (1) integrating all the legal, technical and financial analysis in a GIS tool, and (2) trying to validate the site-specific model with local knowledge. The tool is applied to the Gesso and Vermenagna valleys in the Alps. Information and data were collected and discussed with local stakeholders in order to improve the model results