Merging DNA metabarcoding and ecological network analysis to understand and build resilient terrestrial ecosystems

Summary 1. Significant advances in both mathematical and molecular approaches in ecology offer unprecedented opportunities to describe and understand ecosystem functioning. Ecological networks describe interactions between species, the underlying structure of communities and the function and stability of ecosystems. They provide the ability to assess the robustness of complex ecological communities to species loss, as well as a novel way of guiding restoration. However, empirically quantifying the interactions between entire communities remains a significant challenge. 2. Concomitantly, advances in DNA sequencing technologies are resolving previously intractable questions in functional and taxonomic biodiversity and provide enormous potential to determine hitherto difficult to observe species interactions. Combining DNA metabarcoding approaches with ecological network analysis presents important new opportunities for understanding large-scale ecological and evolutionary processes, as well as providing powerful tools for building ecosystems that are resilient to environmental change. 3. We propose a novel ‘nested tagging’ metabarcoding approach for the rapid construction of large, phylogenetically structured species-interaction networks. Taking tree–insect–parasitoid ecological networks as an illustration, we show how measures of network robustness, constructed using DNA metabarcoding, can be used to determine the consequences of tree species loss within forests, and forest habitat loss within wider landscapes. By determining which species and habitats are important to network integrity, we propose new directions for forest management. 4. Merging metabarcoding with ecological network analysis provides a revolutionary opportunity to construct some of the largest, phylogenetically structured species-interaction networks to date, providing new ways to: (i) monitor biodiversity and ecosystem functioning; (ii) assess the robustness of interacting communities to species loss; and (iii) build ecosystems that are more resilient to environmental change

Biologically informed ecological niche models for an example pelagic, highly mobile species

Background: Although pelagic seabirds are broadly recognised as indicators of the health of marine systems, numerous gaps exist in knowledge of their at-sea distributions at the species level. These gaps have profound negative impacts on the robustness of marine conservation policies. Correlative modelling techniques have provided some information, but few studies have explored model development for non-breeding pelagic seabirds. Here, I present a first phase in developing robust niche models for highly mobile species as a baseline for further development.Methodology: Using observational data from a 12-year time period, 217 unique model parameterisations across three correlative modelling algorithms (boosted regression trees, Maxent and minimum volume ellipsoids) were tested in a time-averaged approach for their ability to recreate the at-sea distribution of non-breeding Wandering Albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) to provide a baseline for further development.Principle Findings/Results: Overall, minimum volume ellipsoids outperformed both boosted regression trees and Maxent. However, whilst the latter two algorithms generally overfit the data, minimum volume ellipsoids tended to underfit the data. Conclusions: The results of this exercise suggest a necessary evolution in how correlative modelling for highly mobile species such as pelagic seabirds should be approached. These insights are crucial for understanding seabird–environment interactions at macroscales, which can facilitate the ability to address population declines and inform effective marine conservation policy in the wake of rapid global change

Data-driven modelling of biological multi-scale processes

Biological processes involve a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A holistic understanding of many biological processes therefore requires multi-scale models which capture the relevant properties on all these scales. In this manuscript we review mathematical modelling approaches used to describe the individual spatial scales and how they are integrated into holistic models. We discuss the relation between spatial and temporal scales and the implication of that on multi-scale modelling. Based upon this overview over state-of-the-art modelling approaches, we formulate key challenges in mathematical and computational modelling of biological multi-scale and multi-physics processes. In particular, we considered the availability of analysis tools for multi-scale models and model-based multi-scale data integration. We provide a compact review of methods for model-based data integration and model-based hypothesis testing. Furthermore, novel approaches and recent trends are discussed, including computation time reduction using reduced order and surrogate models, which contribute to the solution of inference problems. We conclude the manuscript by providing a few ideas for the development of tailored multi-scale inference methods.Comment: This manuscript will appear in the Journal of Coupled Systems and Multiscale Dynamics (American Scientific Publishers

Visually Indicated Sounds

Objects make distinctive sounds when they are hit or scratched. These sounds reveal aspects of an object's material properties, as well as the actions that produced them. In this paper, we propose the task of predicting what sound an object makes when struck as a way of studying physical interactions within a visual scene. We present an algorithm that synthesizes sound from silent videos of people hitting and scratching objects with a drumstick. This algorithm uses a recurrent neural network to predict sound features from videos and then produces a waveform from these features with an example-based synthesis procedure. We show that the sounds predicted by our model are realistic enough to fool participants in a "real or fake" psychophysical experiment, and that they convey significant information about material properties and physical interactions

Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks

Infectious disease outbreaks in plants threaten ecosystems, agricultural crops and food trade. Currently, several fungal diseases are affecting forests worldwide, posing a major risk to tree species, habitats and consequently ecosystem decay. Prediction and control of disease spread are difficult, mainly due to the complexity of the interaction between individual components involved. In this work, we introduce a lattice-based epidemic model coupled with a stochastic process that mimics, in a very simplified way, the interaction between the hosts and pathogen. We studied the disease spread by measuring the propagation velocity of the pathogen on the susceptible hosts. Our quantitative results indicate the occurrence of a critical transition between two stable phases: local confinement and an extended epiphytotic outbreak that depends on the density of the susceptible individuals. Quantitative predictions of epiphytotics are performed using the framework early-warning indicators for impending regime shifts, widely applied on dynamical systems. These signals forecast successfully the outcome of the critical shift between the two stable phases before the system enters the epiphytotic regime. Our study demonstrates that early-warning indicators could be useful for the prediction of forest disease epidemics through mathematical and computational models suited to more specific pathogen–host-environmental interactions. Our results may also be useful to identify a suitable planting density to slow down disease spread and in the future, design highly resilient forests

Digging for gold nuggets : uncovering novel candidate genes for variation in gastrointestinal nematode burden in a wild bird species

Acknowledgements This study was funded by a BBSRC studentship (MAWenzel) and NERC grants NE/H00775X/1 and NE/D000602/1 (SB Piertney). The authors are grateful to Marianne James, Mario Roder and Keliya Bai for field-work assistance, Lucy M.I. Webster and Steve Paterson for help during prior development of genetic markers,Heather Ritchie for helpful comments on manuscript drafts and all estate owners, factors and keepers for access to field sites, most particularly MJ Taylor and Mike Nisbet (Airlie), Neil Brown (Allargue), RR Gledson and David Scrimgeour (Delnadamph), Andrew Salvesen and John Hay (Dinnet), Stuart Young and Derek Calder (Edinglassie), Kirsty Donald and DavidBusfield (Glen Dye), Neil Hogbin and Ab Taylor (Glen Muick), Alistair Mitchell (Glenlivet), Simon Blackett, Jim Davidson and Liam Donald (Invercauld), Richard Cooke and Fred Taylor (Invermark), Shaila Rao and Christopher Murphy (Mar Lodge), and Ralph Peters and Philip Astor (Tillypronie)Peer reviewedPostprin