Conjugate Projective Limits

We characterize conjugate nonparametric Bayesian models as projective limits of conjugate, finite-dimensional Bayesian models. In particular, we identify a large class of nonparametric models representable as infinite-dimensional analogues of exponential family distributions and their canonical conjugate priors. This class contains most models studied in the literature, including Dirichlet processes and Gaussian process regression models. To derive these results, we introduce a representation of infinite-dimensional Bayesian models by projective limits of regular conditional probabilities. We show under which conditions the nonparametric model itself, its sufficient statistics, and -- if they exist -- conjugate updates of the posterior are projective limits of their respective finite-dimensional counterparts. We illustrate our results both by application to existing nonparametric models and by construction of a model on infinite permutations.Comment: 49 pages; improved version: revised proof of theorem 3 (results unchanged), discussion added, exposition revise

Definable maximal cofinitary groups of intermediate size

Using almost disjoint coding, we show that for each $1<M<N<\omega$ consistently $\mathfrak{d}=\mathfrak{a}_g=\aleph_M<\mathfrak{c}=\aleph_N$, where $\mathfrak{a}_g=\aleph_M$ is witnessed by a $\Pi^1_2$ maximal cofinitary group.Comment: 22 page