Sparsity considerations for dependent observations

The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive introduction for the study of L1-penalized estimators in the context of dependent observations. We define a general $\ell_{1}$-penalized estimator for solving problems of stochastic optimization. This estimator turns out to be the LASSO in the regression estimation setting. Powerful theoretical guarantees on the statistical performances of the LASSO were provided in recent papers, however, they usually only deal with the iid case. Here, we study our estimator under various dependence assumptions

Financing practices in the German venture capital industry : an empirical assessment

This paper investigates the financial contracting behavior of German venture capitalists against the results of recent theoretical work on the design of venture capital contracts, especially with regard to the use of convertible securities. First, we identify a special feature of the German market, namely that public-private partnership agencies require significantly lower returns than private and young venture capitalists. The latter are most likely to follow their North-American counterpart by refinancing themselves with closed-end funds. Second, with regard to financing practices it is shown that the use of convertibles, relative to other instruments, is influenced by the anticipated severity of agency problems. Klassifikation: C24; G24; G3

Stability

Reproducibility is imperative for any scientific discovery. More often than not, modern scientific findings rely on statistical analysis of high-dimensional data. At a minimum, reproducibility manifests itself in stability of statistical results relative to "reasonable" perturbations to data and to the model used. Jacknife, bootstrap, and cross-validation are based on perturbations to data, while robust statistics methods deal with perturbations to models. In this article, a case is made for the importance of stability in statistics. Firstly, we motivate the necessity of stability for interpretable and reliable encoding models from brain fMRI signals. Secondly, we find strong evidence in the literature to demonstrate the central role of stability in statistical inference, such as sensitivity analysis and effect detection. Thirdly, a smoothing parameter selector based on estimation stability (ES), ES-CV, is proposed for Lasso, in order to bring stability to bear on cross-validation (CV). ES-CV is then utilized in the encoding models to reduce the number of predictors by 60% with almost no loss (1.3%) of prediction performance across over 2,000 voxels. Last, a novel "stability" argument is seen to drive new results that shed light on the intriguing interactions between sample to sample variability and heavier tail error distribution (e.g., double-exponential) in high-dimensional regression models with $p$ predictors and $n$ independent samples. In particular, when $p/n\rightarrow\kappa\in(0.3,1)$ and the error distribution is double-exponential, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is a better estimator than the Least Absolute Deviation (LAD) estimator.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/13-BEJSP14 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Randomized Dimension Reduction on Massive Data

Scalability of statistical estimators is of increasing importance in modern applications and dimension reduction is often used to extract relevant information from data. A variety of popular dimension reduction approaches can be framed as symmetric generalized eigendecomposition problems. In this paper we outline how taking into account the low rank structure assumption implicit in these dimension reduction approaches provides both computational and statistical advantages. We adapt recent randomized low-rank approximation algorithms to provide efficient solutions to three dimension reduction methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Sliced Inverse Regression (SIR), and Localized Sliced Inverse Regression (LSIR). A key observation in this paper is that randomization serves a dual role, improving both computational and statistical performance. This point is highlighted in our experiments on real and simulated data.Comment: 31 pages, 6 figures, Key Words:dimension reduction, generalized eigendecompositon, low-rank, supervised, inverse regression, random projections, randomized algorithms, Krylov subspace method

Improving market-based forecasts of short-term interest rates: time-varying stationarity and the predictive content of switching regime-expectations

Modeling short-term interest rates as following regime-switching processes has become increasingly popular. Theoretically, regime-switching models are able to capture rational expectations of infrequently occurring discrete events. Technically, they allow for potential time-varying stationarity. After discussing both aspects with reference to the recent literature, this paper provides estimations of various univariate regime-switching specifications for the German three-month money market rate and bivariate specifications additionally including the term spread. However, the main contribution is a multi-step out-of-sample forecasting competition. It turns out that forecasts are improved substantially when allowing for state-dependence. Particularly, the informational content of the term spread for future short rate changes can be exploited optimally within a multivariate regime-switching framework

The Smooth-Lasso and other ℓ1+ℓ2\ell_1+\ell_2-penalized methods

We consider a linear regression problem in a high dimensional setting where the number of covariates $p$ can be much larger than the sample size $n$. In such a situation, one often assumes sparsity of the regression vector, \textit i.e., the regression vector contains many zero components. We propose a Lasso-type estimator $\hat{\beta}^{Quad}$ (where '$Quad$' stands for quadratic) which is based on two penalty terms. The first one is the $\ell_1$ norm of the regression coefficients used to exploit the sparsity of the regression as done by the Lasso estimator, whereas the second is a quadratic penalty term introduced to capture some additional information on the setting of the problem. We detail two special cases: the Elastic-Net $\hat{\beta}^{EN}$, which deals with sparse problems where correlations between variables may exist; and the Smooth-Lasso $\hat{\beta}^{SL}$, which responds to sparse problems where successive regression coefficients are known to vary slowly (in some situations, this can also be interpreted in terms of correlations between successive variables). From a theoretical point of view, we establish variable selection consistency results and show that $\hat{\beta}^{Quad}$ achieves a Sparsity Inequality, \textit i.e., a bound in terms of the number of non-zero components of the 'true' regression vector. These results are provided under a weaker assumption on the Gram matrix than the one used by the Lasso. In some situations this guarantees a significant improvement over the Lasso. Furthermore, a simulation study is conducted and shows that the S-Lasso $\hat{\beta}^{SL}$ performs better than known methods as the Lasso, the Elastic-Net $\hat{\beta}^{EN}$, and the Fused-Lasso with respect to the estimation accuracy. This is especially the case when the regression vector is 'smooth', \textit i.e., when the variations between successive coefficients of the unknown parameter of the regression are small. The study also reveals that the theoretical calibration of the tuning parameters and the one based on 10 fold cross validation imply two S-Lasso solutions with close performance