Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market

This paper studies the switching of trading strategies and its effect on the market volatility in a continuous double auction market. We describe the behavior when some uninformed agents, who we call switchers, decide whether or not to pay for information before they trade. By paying for the information they behave as informed traders. First we verify that our model is able to reproduce some of the stylized facts in real financial markets. Next we consider the relationship between switching and the market volatility under different structures of investors. We find that there exists a positive relationship between the market volatility and the percentage of switchers. We therefore conclude that the switchers are a destabilizing factor in the market. However, for a given fixed percentage of switchers, the proportion of switchers that decide to buy information at a given moment of time is negatively related to the current market volatility. In other words, if more agents pay for information to know the fundamental value at some time, the market volatility will be lower. This is because the market price is closer to the fundamental value due to information diffusion between switchers.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, Physica A, 201

Mergers and acquisitions transactions strategies in diffusion - type financial systems in highly volatile global capital markets with nonlinearities

The M and A transactions represent a wide range of unique business optimization opportunities in the corporate transformation deals, which are usually characterized by the high level of total risk. The M and A transactions can be successfully implemented by taking to an account the size of investments, purchase price, direction of transaction, type of transaction, and using the modern comparable transactions analysis and the business valuation techniques in the diffusion type financial systems in the finances. We developed the MicroMA software program with the embedded optimized near-real-time artificial intelligence algorithm to create the winning virtuous M and A strategies, using the financial performance characteristics of the involved firms, and to estimate the probability of the M and A transaction completion success. We believe that the fluctuating dependence of M and A transactions number over the certain time period is quasi periodic. We think that there are many factors, which can generate the quasi periodic oscillations of the M and A transactions number in the time domain, for example: the stock market bubble effects. We performed the research of the nonlinearities in the M and A transactions number quasi-periodic oscillations in Matlab, including the ideal, linear, quadratic, and exponential dependences. We discovered that the average of a sum of random numbers in the M and A transactions time series represents a time series with the quasi periodic systematic oscillations, which can be finely approximated by the polynomial numbers. We think that, in the course of the M and A transaction implementation, the ability by the companies to absorb the newly acquired knowledge and to create the new innovative knowledge bases, is a key predeterminant of the M and A deal completion success as in Switzerland.Comment: 160 pages, 9 figures, 37 table

A review of Multi-Agent Simulation Models in Agriculture

Multi-Agent Simulation (MAS) models are intended to capture emergent properties of complex systems that are not amenable to equilibrium analysis. They are beginning to see some use for analysing agricultural systems. The paper reports on work in progress to create a MAS for specific sectors in New Zealand agriculture. One part of the paper focuses on options for modelling land and other resources such as water, labour and capital in this model, as well as markets for exchanging resources and commodities. A second part considers options for modelling agent heterogeneity, especially risk preferences of farmers, and the impacts on decision-making. The final section outlines the MAS that the authors will be constructing over the next few years and the types of research questions that the model will help investigate.multi-agent simulation models, modelling, agent-based model, cellular automata, decision-making, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries,

The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.

Options for Economic Growth in Mali through the Application of Science and Technology to Agriculture

Prepared For The United States Agency for International Development Initiative To End Hunger In Africafood security, food policy, Mali science and technology research, research and extension, International Development, Q18,

Spatial Dynamic Modeling and Urban Land Use Transformation:

Assessing the economic impacts of urban land use transformation has become complex and acrimonious. Although community planners are beginning to comprehend the economic trade-offs inherent in transforming the urban fringe, they find it increasingly difficult to analyze and assess the trade-offs expediently and in ways that can influence local decisionmaking. New and sophisticated spatial modeling techniques are now being applied to urban systems that can quickly assess the probable spatial outcomes of given communal policies. Applying an economic impact assessment to the probable spatial patterns can provide to planners the tools needed to quickly assess scenarios for policy formation that will ultimately help inform decision makers. This paper focuses on the theoretical underpinnings and practical application of an economic impact analysis submodel developed within the Land use Evolution and Impact Assessment Modeling (LEAM) environment. The conceptual framework of LEAM is described, followed by an application of the model to the assessment of the cost of urban sprawl in Kane County, Illinois. The results show the effectiveness of spatially explicit modeling from a theoretical and a practical point of view. The agent-based approach of spatial dynamic modeling with a high spatial resolution allows for discerning the macro-level implications of micro-level behaviors. These phenomena are highlighted in the economic submodel in the discussion of the implications of land use change decisions on individual and communal costs; low-density development patterns favoring individual behaviors at the expense of the broader community.

The European Forest and Agriculture Optimisation Model -- EUFASOM

Land use is a key factor to social wellbeing and has become a major component in political negotiations. This paper describes the mathematical structure of the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model. The model represents simultaneously observed resource and technological heterogeneity, global commodity markets, and multiple environmental qualities. Land scarcity and land competition between traditional agriculture, forests, nature reserves, pastures, and bioenergy plantations is explicitly captured. Environmental change, technological progress, and policies can be investigated in parallel. The model is well-suited to estimate competitive economic potentials of land based mitigation, leakage, and synergies and trade-offs between multiple environmental objectives.Land Use Change Optimization, Resource Scarcity, Market Competition, Welfare Maximization, Bottom-up Partial Equilibrium Analysis, Agricultural Externality Mitigation, Forest Dynamics, Global Change Adaptation, Environmental Policy Simulation, Integrated Assessment, Mathematical Programming, GAMS

HAPPINESS OVER SPACE AND TIME

Hedonic theory assumes that changes in land prices and wage rates eliminate the utility advantages of differing locations. Using happiness data from the German socio-economic panel this paper empirically tests whether regional utility differences exist and if so whether utility levels show any tendency to converge over time. Empirical analysis reveals substantial differences in utility over different regions of Germany. Analysing a panel of data indicates that even if individual utility levels are at any one moment in disequilibrium they are rapidly converging over Germany for all types of individuals.amenity value, Happiness