Advancing the determinants of risky decision behaviour using conjoint and multi-level moderated mediation analysis

Investment decision-making is an everyday activity within society. When these decisions involve innovation and require a willingness to innovate, additional complexities arise concerning uncertainty and decision irreversibility. This thesis investigates to what extent predictions of investment decision-making behaviour may be made based upon how varying levels of uncertainty and irreversibility affect perceptions of risk, how this may affect decision behaviour and how the strength of this effect may vary depending upon decision-maker risk propensity. In doing so, this thesis addresses important gaps found to exist at an intersection of the theory of innovation diffusion, the basic theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty and prospect theory. The research methodology employed for this purpose comprises full-profile conjoint value analysis and multi-level moderated mediation analysis. An online survey comprising ten conjoint tasks enables the conjoint analysis and provides the means to measure both perceptions of risk and risk propensity. The online survey itself relies upon an established case study titled ‘Carter Racing’. The results of this research find that a comprehensive set of relationships exist among the variables in question, from which valid and useful predictions may be made. Where a risk-averse relationship is shown to exist between decision-making behaviour and measures of uncertainty and irreversibility, it can also be shown that these relationships are exerted through and explained by perceptions of risk, with decision-maker risk propensity serving to influence the strength of the effects. In these cases, a significant positive correlation is observed between perceptions of risk and both uncertainty and irreversibility. A significant negative correlation is also observed between perceptions of risk and a willingness to innovate, this being the means through which innovativeness is measured. However, where a risk-seeking relationship is shown to exist, no significant correlations or effects are observed. These findings have important implications for theory and practice

Work Life 2000 Yearbook 1: 1999

This volume reported the proceedings of a series of international research workshops in 1999, funded by the Swedish National Institute for Working Life, in preparation for the Swedish Presidency of the European Union in 2001

The design of retirement schemes: possibilities and imperatives

ABSTRACT South Africa has a sophisticated and developed retirement fund industry and an extensive social security system. While the objective of the latter is wider, both are concerned with financial security: particularly in the face of risks of death, disability and old age. It is widely recognised that there are many gaps in coverage. The chapters in this thesis address these gaps and administrative and benefit structures that could be developed to provide a truly comprehensive social security system. In particular, the thesis discusses the retirement and old age recommendations of the Taylor Committee, on which the author served. The vision is of universal coverage for the current state benefits augmented by mandatory employer based group schemes that offer disability, retirement and orphans' pensions. Means tests, the Road Accident Fund and workers' compensation arrangements would be abolished. The chapters of the thesis are each self-contained, having all been published in – or submitted to – journals, books or conferences. In each, an attempt has been made to review a broader literature than is normally used to discover the impact of some element of the benefit structure, governance or investment policies of retirement schemes on their members. In this context, it is considered to be particularly appropriate to test policies and governance against the standard of justic