Ten years of pluviometric analyses in Italy for civil protection purposes

The concept of climate change has grown in recent decades, influencing the scientific community to conduct research on meteorological parameters and their variabilities. Research on global warming, as well as on its possible economic and environmental consequences, has spread over the last 20 years. Diffused changes in trends have been stated by several authors throughout the world, with different developments observed depending on the continent. Following a period of approximately 40 days of almost continuous rain that occurred from October to November 2019 across the Italian territory and caused several hazards (e.g., floods and landslides), a relevant question for decision-makers and civil protection actors emerged regarding the relative frequencies of given rainfall events in the Warning Hazard Zones (WHZs) of Italy. The derived products of this work could answer this question for both weather and hydrogeological operators thanks to the frequency and spatio-temporal distribution analyses conducted on 10-year daily rainfall data over the entire Italian territory. This work aspires to be an additional tool used to analyse events that have occurred, providing further information for a better understanding of the probability of occurrence and distribution of future events

Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management in Mediterranean Countries: First International Conference, ISCRAM-med 2014, Toulouse, France, October 15-17, 2014. Proceedings

International audienceThis book contains the refereed proceedings of the First International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management in Mediterranean Countries, ISCRAM-med 2014, held in Toulouse, France, in October 2014.The aim of ISCRAM-med was to gather researchers and practitioners working in the area of Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, with a special but not limited focus on Mediterranean crises. These include political crises, economic crises, natural hazards, and fatal industrial incidents.The 15 full papers included in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 44 submissions. The contributions are organized in topical sections on supply chain and distribution; modeling and training; human interactions in the crisis field; coordination and agility; and social aspects in crisis management

Aide à la conception de chaînes logistiques humanitaires efficientes et résilientes : application au cas des crises récurrentes péruviennes

Every year, more than 400 natural disasters hit the world. To assist those affected populations, humanitarian organizations store in advance emergency aid in warehouses. This PhD thesis provides tools for support decisions on localization and sizing of humanitarian warehouses. Our approach is based on the design of representative and realistic scenarios. A scenario expresses some disasters’ occurrences for which epicenters are known, as well as their gravity and frequency. This step is based on the exploitation and analysis of databases of past disasters. The second step tackles about possible disaster’s propagation. The objective consists in determining their impact on population on each affected area. This impact depends on vulnerability and resilience of the territory. Vulnerability measures expected damage values meanwhile resilience estimates the ability to withstand some shock and recover quickly. Both are largely determined by social and economic factors, being structural (geography, GDP, etc.) or political (establishment or not relief infrastructure, presence and strict enforcement of construction standards, etc.). We propose through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify, for each territory, influential factors of resilience and vulnerability and then estimate the number of victims concerned using these factors. Often, infrastructure (water, telecommunications, electricity, communication channels) are destroyed or damaged by the disaster (e.g. Haiti in 2010). The last step aims to assess the disaster logistics impact, specifically those related to with: transportation flows capacity limitations and destruction of all or part of emergency relief inventories. The following of our study focuses on location and allocation of a warehouses’ network. The proposed models have the originality to consider potential resources and infrastructure degradation after a disaster (resilience dimension) and seek optimizing the equilibrium between costs and results (effectiveness dimension). Initially we consider a single scenario. The problem is an extension of classical location studies. Then we consider a set of probable scenarios. This approach is essential due to the highly uncertain character of humanitarian disasters. All of these contributions have been tested and validated through a real application case: Peruvian recurrent disasters. These crises, mainly due to earthquakes and floods (El Niño), require establishment of a first aid logistics network that should be resilient and efficient.Chaque année, plus de 400 catastrophes naturelles frappent le monde. Pour aider les populations touchées, les organisations humanitaires stockent par avance de l’aide d’urgence dans des entrepôts. Cette thèse propose des outils d’aide à la décision pour les aider à localiser et dimensionner ces entrepôts. Notre approche repose sur la construction de scénarios représentatifs. Un scénario représente la survenue d’une catastrophe dont on connaît l’épicentre, la gravité et la probabilité d’occurrence. Cette étape repose sur l’exploitation et l’analyse de bases de données des catastrophes passées. La seconde étape porte sur la propagation géographique de la catastrophe et détermine son impact sur la population des territoires touchés. Cet impact est fonction de la vulnérabilité et de la résilience du territoire. La vulnérabilité mesure la valeur attendue des dégâts alors que la résilience estime la capacité à résister au choc et à se rétablir rapidement. Les deux sont largement déterminées par des facteurs économiques et sociaux, soit structurels (géographie, PIB…) ou politiques (existence d’infrastructure d’aide, normes de construction…). Nous proposons par le biais d’analyses en composantes principales (ACP) d’identifier les facteurs influents de résilience et de vulnérabilité, puis d’estimer le nombre de victimes touchées à partir de ces facteurs. Souvent, les infrastructures (eau, télécommunication, électricité, voies de communication) sont détruits ou endommagés par la catastrophe (ex : Haïti en 2010). La dernière étape a pour objectif d’évaluer les impacts logistiques en ce qui concerne : les restrictions des capacités de transport existant et la destruction de tout ou partie des stocks d’urgence. La suite de l’étude porte sur la localisation et le dimensionnement du réseau d’entrepôt. Nos modèles présentent l’originalité de tenir compte de la dégradation des ressources et infrastructures suite due à la catastrophe (dimension résilience) et de chercher à optimiser le rapport entre les coûts engagés et le résultat obtenu (dimension efficience). Nous considérons d’abord un scénario unique. Le problème est une extension d’un problème de location classique. Puis, nous considérons un ensemble de scénarios probabilisés. Cette approche est indispensable à la considération du caractère très incertain des catastrophes humanitaires. L’ensemble de ces contributions a été confronté à la réalité des faits dans le cadre d’une application au cas des crises récurrentes du Pérou. Ces crises, essentiellement dues aux tremblements de terre et aux inondations (El Niño), imposent la constitution d’un réseau logistique de premiers secours qui soit résilient et efficient

Radar satellite imagery for humanitarian response. Bridging the gap between technology and application

This work deals with radar satellite imagery and its potential to assist of humanitarian operations. As the number of displaced people annually increases, both hosting countries and relief organizations face new challenges which are often related to unclear situations and lack of information on the number and location of people in need, as well as their environments. It was demonstrated in numerous studies that methods of earth observation can deliver this important information for the management of crises, the organization of refugee camps, and the mapping of environmental resources and natural hazards. However, most of these studies make use of -high-resolution optical imagery, while the role of radar satellites is widely neglected. At the same time, radar sensors have characteristics which make them highly suitable for humanitarian response, their potential to capture images through cloud cover and at night in the first place. Consequently, they potentially allow quicker response in cases of emergencies than optical imagery. This work demonstrates the currently unused potential of radar imagery for the assistance of humanitarian operations by case studies which cover the information needs of specific emergency situations. They are thematically grouped into topics related to population, natural hazards and the environment. Furthermore, the case studies address different levels of scientific objectives: The main intention is the development of innovative techniques of digital image processing and geospatial analysis as an answer on the identified existing research gaps. For this reason, novel approaches are presented on the mapping of refugee camps and urban areas, the allocation of biomass and environmental impact assessment. Secondly, existing methods developed for radar imagery are applied, refined, or adapted to specifically demonstrate their benefit in a humanitarian context. This is done for the monitoring of camp growth, the assessment of damages in cities affected by civil war, and the derivation of areas vulnerable to flooding or sea-surface changes. Lastly, to foster the integration of radar images into existing operational workflows of humanitarian data analysis, technically simple and easily-adaptable approaches are suggested for the mapping of rural areas for vaccination campaigns, the identification of changes within and around refugee camps, and the assessment of suitable locations for groundwater drillings. While the studies provide different levels of technical complexity and novelty, they all show that radar imagery can largely contribute to the provision of a variety of information which is required to make solid decisions and to effectively provide help in humanitarian operations. This work furthermore demonstrates that radar images are more than just an alternative image source for areas heavily affected by cloud cover. In fact, what makes them valuable is their information content regarding the characteristics of surfaces, such as shape, orientation, roughness, size, height, moisture, or conductivity. All these give decisive insights about man-made and natural environments in emergency situations and cannot be provided by optical images Finally, the findings of the case studies are put into a larger context, discussing the observed potential and limitations of the presented approaches. The major challenges are summarized which need be addressed to make radar imagery more useful in humanitarian operations in the context of upcoming technical developments. New radar satellites and technological progress in the fields of machine learning and cloud computing will bring new opportunities. At the same time, this work demonstrated the large need for further research, as well as for the collaboration and transfer of knowledge and experiences between scientists, users and relief workers in the field. It is the first extensive scientific compilation of this topic and the first step for a sustainable integration of radar imagery into operational frameworks to assist humanitarian work and to contribute to a more efficient provision of help to those in need.Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit bildgebenden Radarsatelliten und ihrem potenziellen Beitrag zur Unterstützung humanitärer Einsätze. Die jährlich zunehmende Zahl an vertriebenen oder geflüchteten Menschen stellt sowohl Aufnahmeländer als auch humanitäre Organisationen vor große Herausforderungen, da sie oft mit unübersichtlichen Verhältnissen konfrontiert sind. Effektives Krisenmanagement, die Planung und Versorgung von Flüchtlingslagern, sowie der Schutz der betroffenen Menschen erfordern jedoch verlässliche Angaben über Anzahl und Aufenthaltsort der Geflüchteten und ihrer natürlichen Umwelt. Die Bereitstellung dieser Informationen durch Satellitenbilder wurde bereits in zahlreichen Studien aufgezeigt. Sie beruhen in der Regel auf hochaufgelösten optischen Aufnahmen, während bildgebende Radarsatelliten bisher kaum Anwendung finden. Dabei verfügen gerade Radarsatelliten über Eigenschaften, die hilfreich für humanitäre Einsätze sein können, allen voran ihre Unabhängigkeit von Bewölkung oder Tageslicht. Dadurch ermöglichen sie in Krisenfällen verglichen mit optischen Satelliten eine schnellere Reaktion. Diese Arbeit zeigt das derzeit noch ungenutzte Potenzial von Radardaten zur Unterstützung humanitärer Arbeit anhand von Fallstudien auf, in denen konkrete Informationen für ausgewählte Krisensituationen bereitgestellt werden. Sie sind in die Themenbereiche Bevölkerung, Naturgefahren und Ressourcen aufgeteilt, adressieren jedoch unterschiedliche wissenschaftliche Ansprüche: Der Hauptfokus der Arbeit liegt auf der Entwicklung von innovativen Methoden zur Verarbeitung von Radarbildern und räumlichen Daten als Antwort auf den identifizierten Forschungsbedarf in diesem Gebiet. Dies wird anhand der Kartierung von Flüchtlingslagern zur Abschätzung ihrer Bevölkerung, zur Bestimmung von Biomasse, sowie zur Ermittlung des Umwelteinflusses von Flüchtlingslagern aufgezeigt. Darüber hinaus werden existierende oder erprobte Ansätze für die Anwendung im humanitären Kontext angepasst oder weiterentwickelt. Dies erfolgt im Rahmen von Fallstudien zur Dynamik von Flüchtlingslagern, zur Ermittlung von Schäden an Gebäuden in Kriegsgebieten, sowie zur Erkennung von Risiken durch Überflutung. Zuletzt soll die Integration von Radardaten in bereits existierende Abläufe oder Arbeitsroutinen in der humanitären Hilfe anhand technisch vergleichsweise einfacher Ansätze vorgestellt und angeregt werden. Als Beispiele dienen hier die radargestützte Kartierung von entlegenen Gebieten zur Unterstützung von Impfkampagnen, die Identifizierung von Veränderungen in Flüchtlingslagern, sowie die Auswahl geeigneter Standorte zur Grundwasserentnahme. Obwohl sich die Fallstudien hinsichtlich ihres Innovations- und Komplexitätsgrads unterscheiden, zeigen sie alle den Mehrwert von Radardaten für die Bereitstellung von Informationen, um schnelle und fundierte Planungsentscheidungen zu unterstützen. Darüber hinaus wird in dieser Arbeit deutlich, dass Radardaten für humanitäre Zwecke mehr als nur eine Alternative in stark bewölkten Gebieten sind. Durch ihren Informationsgehalt zur Beschaffenheit von Oberflächen, beispielsweise hinsichtlich ihrer Rauigkeit, Feuchte, Form, Größe oder Höhe, sind sie optischen Daten überlegen und daher für viele Anwendungsbereiche im Kontext humanitärer Arbeit besonders. Die in den Fallstudien gewonnenen Erkenntnisse werden abschließend vor dem Hintergrund von Vor- und Nachteilen von Radardaten, sowie hinsichtlich zukünftiger Entwicklungen und Herausforderungen diskutiert. So versprechen neue Radarsatelliten und technologische Fortschritte im Bereich der Datenverarbeitung großes Potenzial. Gleichzeitig unterstreicht die Arbeit einen großen Bedarf an weiterer Forschung, sowie an Austausch und Zusammenarbeit zwischen Wissenschaftlern, Anwendern und Einsatzkräften vor Ort. Die vorliegende Arbeit ist die erste umfassende Darstellung und wissenschaftliche Aufarbeitung dieses Themenkomplexes. Sie soll als Grundstein für eine langfristige Integration von Radardaten in operationelle Abläufe dienen, um humanitäre Arbeit zu unterstützen und eine wirksame Hilfe für Menschen in Not ermöglichen

Factors Influencing Customer Satisfaction towards E-shopping in Malaysia

Online shopping or e-shopping has changed the world of business and quite a few people have decided to work with these features. What their primary concerns precisely and the responses from the globalisation are the competency of incorporation while doing their businesses. E-shopping has also increased substantially in Malaysia in recent years. The rapid increase in the e-commerce industry in Malaysia has created the demand to emphasize on how to increase customer satisfaction while operating in the e-retailing environment. It is very important that customers are satisfied with the website, or else, they would not return. Therefore, a crucial fact to look into is that companies must ensure that their customers are satisfied with their purchases that are really essential from the ecommerce’s point of view. With is in mind, this study aimed at investigating customer satisfaction towards e-shopping in Malaysia. A total of 400 questionnaires were distributed among students randomly selected from various public and private universities located within Klang valley area. Total 369 questionnaires were returned, out of which 341 questionnaires were found usable for further analysis. Finally, SEM was employed to test the hypotheses. This study found that customer satisfaction towards e-shopping in Malaysia is to a great extent influenced by ease of use, trust, design of the website, online security and e-service quality. Finally, recommendations and future study direction is provided. Keywords: E-shopping, Customer satisfaction, Trust, Online security, E-service quality, Malaysia

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk managemen