Energy performance forecasting of residential buildings using fuzzy approaches

The energy consumption used for domestic purposes in Europe is, to a considerable extent, due to heating and cooling. This energy is produced mostly by burning fossil fuels, which has a high negative environmental impact. The characteristics of a building are an important factor to determine the necessities of heating and cooling loads. Therefore, the study of the relevant characteristics of the buildings, regarding the heating and cooling needed to maintain comfortable indoor air conditions, could be very useful in order to design and construct energy-efficient buildings. In previous studies, different machine-learning approaches have been used to predict heating and cooling loads from the set of variables: relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area and glazing area distribution. However, none of these methods are based on fuzzy logic. In this research, we study two fuzzy logic approaches, i.e., fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), to deal with the same problem. Fuzzy approaches obtain very good results, outperforming all the methods described in previous studies except one. In this work, we also study the feature selection process of FIR methodology as a pre-processing tool to select the more relevant variables before the use of any predictive modelling methodology. It is proven that FIR feature selection provides interesting insights into the main building variables causally related to heating and cooling loads. This allows better decision making and design strategies, since accurate cooling and heating load estimations and correct identification of parameters that affect building energy demands are of high importance to optimize building designs and equipment specifications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Fuzzy rule-based systems for recognition-intensive classification in granular computing context

In traditional machine learning, classification is typically undertaken in the way of discriminative learning using probabilistic approaches, i.e. learning a classifier that discriminates one class from other classes. The above learning strategy is mainly due to the assumption that different classes are mutually exclusive and each instance is clear-cut. However, the above assumption does not always hold in the context of real-life data classification, especially when the nature of a classification task is to recognize patterns of specific classes. For example, in the context of emotion detection, multiple emotions may be identified from the same person at the same time, which indicates in general that different emotions may involve specific relationships rather than mutual exclusion. In this paper, we focus on classification problems that involve pattern recognition. In particular, we position the study in the context of granular computing, and propose the use of fuzzy rule-based systems for recognition-intensive classification of real-life data instances. Furthermore, we report an experimental study conducted using 7 UCI data sets on life sciences, to compare the fuzzy approach with four popular probabilistic approaches in pattern recognition tasks. The experimental results show that the fuzzy approach can not only be used as an alternative one to the probabilistic approaches but also is capable to capture more patterns which probabilistic approaches cannot achieve

Granular computing approach for intelligent classifier design

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University London.Granular computing facilitates dealing with information by providing a theoretical framework to deal with information as granules at different levels of granularity (different levels of specificity/abstraction). It aims to provide an abstract explainable description of the data by forming granules that represent the features or the underlying structure of corresponding subsets of the data. In this thesis, a granular computing approach to the design of intelligent classification systems is proposed. The proposed approach is employed for different classification systems to investigate its efficiency. Fuzzy inference systems, neural networks, neuro-fuzzy systems and classifier ensembles are considered to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed approach. Each of the considered systems is designed using the proposed approach and classification performance is evaluated and compared to that of the standard system. The proposed approach is based on constructing information granules from data at multiple levels of granularity. The granulation process is performed using a modified fuzzy c-means algorithm that takes classification problem into account. Clustering is followed by a coarsening process that involves merging small clusters into large ones to form a lower granularity level. The resulted granules are used to build each of the considered binary classifiers in different settings and approaches. Granules produced by the proposed granulation method are used to build a fuzzy classifier for each granulation level or set of levels. The performance of the classifiers is evaluated using real life data sets and measured by two classification performance measures: accuracy and area under receiver operating characteristic curve. Experimental results show that fuzzy systems constructed using the proposed method achieved better classification performance. In addition, the proposed approach is used for the design of neural network classifiers. Resulted granules from one or more granulation levels are used to train the classifiers at different levels of specificity/abstraction. Using this approach, the classification problem is broken down into the modelling of classification rules represented by the information granules resulting in more interpretable system. Experimental results show that neural network classifiers trained using the proposed approach have better classification performance for most of the data sets. In a similar manner, the proposed approach is used for the training of neuro-fuzzy systems resulting in similar improvement in classification performance. Lastly, neural networks built using the proposed approach are used to construct a classifier ensemble. Information granules are used to generate and train the base classifiers. The final ensemble output is produced by a weighted sum combiner. Based on the experimental results, the proposed approach has improved the classification performance of the base classifiers for most of the data sets. Furthermore, a genetic algorithm is used to determine the combiner weights automatically.Higher Committee for Education Development in Iraq (HCED

Uncertainty and Interpretability Studies in Soft Computing with an Application to Complex Manufacturing Systems

In systems modelling and control theory, the benefits of applying neural networks have been extensively studied. Particularly in manufacturing processes, such as the prediction of mechanical properties of heat treated steels. However, modern industrial processes usually involve large amounts of data and a range of non-linear effects and interactions that might hinder their model interpretation. For example, in steel manufacturing the understanding of complex mechanisms that lead to the mechanical properties which are generated by the heat treatment process is vital. This knowledge is not available via numerical models, therefore an experienced metallurgist estimates the model parameters to obtain the required properties. This human knowledge and perception sometimes can be imprecise leading to a kind of cognitive uncertainty such as vagueness and ambiguity when making decisions. In system classification, this may be translated into a system deficiency - for example, small input changes in system attributes may result in a sudden and inappropriate change for class assignation. In order to address this issue, practitioners and researches have developed systems that are functional equivalent to fuzzy systems and neural networks. Such systems provide a morphology that mimics the human ability of reasoning via the qualitative aspects of fuzzy information rather by its quantitative analysis. Furthermore, these models are able to learn from data sets and to describe the associated interactions and non-linearities in the data. However, in a like-manner to neural networks, a neural fuzzy system may suffer from a lost of interpretability and transparency when making decisions. This is mainly due to the application of adaptive approaches for its parameter identification. Since the RBF-NN can be treated as a fuzzy inference engine, this thesis presents several methodologies that quantify different types of uncertainty and its influence on the model interpretability and transparency of the RBF-NN during its parameter identification. Particularly, three kind of uncertainty sources in relation to the RBF-NN are studied, namely: entropy, fuzziness and ambiguity. First, a methodology based on Granular Computing (GrC), neutrosophic sets and the RBF-NN is presented. The objective of this methodology is to quantify the hesitation produced during the granular compression at the low level of interpretability of the RBF-NN via the use of neutrosophic sets. This study also aims to enhance the disitnguishability and hence the transparency of the initial fuzzy partition. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is tested against a real case study for the prediction of the properties of heat-treated steels. Secondly, a new Interval Type-2 Radial Basis Function Neural Network (IT2-RBF-NN) is introduced as a new modelling framework. The IT2-RBF-NN takes advantage of the functional equivalence between FLSs of type-1 and the RBF-NN so as to construct an Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2-FLS) that is able to deal with linguistic uncertainty and perceptions in the RBF-NN rule base. This gave raise to different combinations when optimising the IT2-RBF-NN parameters. Finally, a twofold study for uncertainty assessment at the high-level of interpretability of the RBF-NN is provided. On the one hand, the first study proposes a new methodology to quantify the a) fuzziness and the b) ambiguity at each RU, and during the formation of the rule base via the use of neutrosophic sets theory. The aim of this methodology is to calculate the associated fuzziness of each rule and then the ambiguity related to each normalised consequence of the fuzzy rules that result from the overlapping and to the choice with one-to-many decisions respectively. On the other hand, a second study proposes a new methodology to quantify the entropy and the fuzziness that come out from the redundancy phenomenon during the parameter identification. To conclude this work, the experimental results obtained through the application of the proposed methodologies for modelling two well-known benchmark data sets and for the prediction of mechanical properties of heat-treated steels conducted to publication of three articles in two peer-reviewed journals and one international conference

Context dependent fuzzy modelling and its applications

Fuzzy rule-based systems (FRBS) use the principle of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic to describe vague and imprecise statements and provide a facility to express the behaviours of the system with a human-understandable language. Fuzzy information, once defined by a fuzzy system, is fixed regardless of the circumstances and therefore makes it very difficult to capture the effect of context on the meaning of the fuzzy terms. While efforts have been made to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets, it remains the case that often the context model is very restrictive and/or problem specific. The work reported in this thesis is our attempt to create a practical frame work to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets so as to improve the interpretability as well as the accuracy of the fuzzy system. Throughout this thesis, we have looked at the capability of the proposed context dependent fuzzy sets as a stand alone as well as in combination with other methods in various application scenarios ranging from time series forecasting to complicated car racing control systems. In all of the applications, the highly competitive performance nature of our approach has proven its effectiveness and efficiency compared with existing techniques in the literature

Context dependent fuzzy modelling and its applications

Fuzzy rule-based systems (FRBS) use the principle of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic to describe vague and imprecise statements and provide a facility to express the behaviours of the system with a human-understandable language. Fuzzy information, once defined by a fuzzy system, is fixed regardless of the circumstances and therefore makes it very difficult to capture the effect of context on the meaning of the fuzzy terms. While efforts have been made to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets, it remains the case that often the context model is very restrictive and/or problem specific. The work reported in this thesis is our attempt to create a practical frame work to integrate contextual information into the representation of fuzzy sets so as to improve the interpretability as well as the accuracy of the fuzzy system. Throughout this thesis, we have looked at the capability of the proposed context dependent fuzzy sets as a stand alone as well as in combination with other methods in various application scenarios ranging from time series forecasting to complicated car racing control systems. In all of the applications, the highly competitive performance nature of our approach has proven its effectiveness and efficiency compared with existing techniques in the literature