Hybrid artificial intelligence algorithms for short-term load and price forecasting in competitive electric markets

The liberalization and deregulation of electric markets forced the various participants to accommodate several challenges, including: a considerable accumulation of new generation capacity from renewable sources (fundamentally wind energy), the unpredictability associated with these new forms of generation and new consumption patterns, contributing to further electricity prices volatility (e.g. the Iberian market). Given the competitive framework in which market participants operate, the existence of efficient computational forecasting techniques is a distinctive factor. Based on these forecasts a suitable bidding strategy and an effective generation systems operation planning is achieved, together with an improved installed transmission capacity exploitation, results in maximized profits, all this contributing to a better energy resources utilization. This dissertation presents a new hybrid method for load and electricity prices forecasting, for one day ahead time horizon. The optimization scheme presented in this method, combines the efforts from different techniques, notably artificial neural networks, several optimization algorithms and wavelet transform. The method’s validation was made using different real case studies. The subsequent comparison (accuracy wise) with published results, in reference journals, validated the proposed hybrid method suitability.O processo de liberalização e desregulação dos mercados de energia elétrica, obrigou os diversos participantes a acomodar uma série de desafios, entre os quais: a acumulação considerável de nova capacidade de geração proveniente de origem renovável (fundamentalmente energia eólica), a imprevisibilidade associada a estas novas formas de geração e novos padrões de consumo. Resultando num aumento da volatilidade associada aos preços de energia elétrica (como é exemplo o mercado ibérico). Dado o quadro competitivo em que os agentes de mercado operam, a existência de técnicas computacionais de previsão eficientes, constituí um fator diferenciador. É com base nestas previsões que se definem estratégias de licitação e se efetua um planeamento da operação eficaz dos sistemas de geração que, em conjunto com um melhor aproveitamento da capacidade de transmissão instalada, permite maximizar os lucros, realizando ao mesmo tempo um melhor aproveitamento dos recursos energéticos. Esta dissertação apresenta um novo método híbrido para a previsão da carga e dos preços da energia elétrica, para um horizonte temporal a 24 horas. O método baseia-se num esquema de otimização que reúne os esforços de diferentes técnicas, nomeadamente redes neuronais artificiais, diversos algoritmos de otimização e da transformada de wavelet. A validação do método foi feita em diferentes casos de estudo reais. A posterior comparação com resultados já publicados em revistas de referência, revelou um excelente desempenho do método hibrido proposto

Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Based Fault Diagnosis

International audienceIn order to avoid catastrophic situations when the dynamics of a physical system (entity in Multi Agent System architecture) are evolving toward an undesirable operating mode, particular and quick safety actions have to be programmed in the control design. Classic control (PID and even state model based methods) becomes powerless for complex plants (nonlinear, MIMO and ill-defined systems). A more efficient diagnosis requires an artificial intelligence approach. We propose in this paper the design of a Fuzzy Pattern Recognition System (FPRS) that solves, in real time, the main following problems: 1) Identification of an actual state; 2) Identification of an eventual evolution towards a failure state; 3) Diagnosis and decision-making. Simulations have been carried for a fictive complex process plant with the objective to evaluate the consistency and the performance of the proposed diagnosis philosophy. The obtained results seem to be encouraging and very promising for application to fault diagnosis of a real and complex plant process

Fuzzy-neural model with hybrid market indicators for stock forecasting

A number of research had been carried out to forecast stock price based on technical indicators, which rely purely on historical stock price data. Nevertheless, their performance is not always satisfactory. In this paper, the effect of using hybrid market indicators of technical, fundamental indicators and experts opinion for stock price prediction is examined. Input variables extracted from these market hybrid indicators are fed into a fuzzy-neural network for improved accuracy of stock price prediction. The empirical results obtained with published stock data shows that the proposed model can be effective to improve accuracy of stock price prediction

An Improved Model for Stock Price Prediction using Market Experts Opinion

Several research efforts had been done to forecast stock price based on technical indicators which rely purely on historical stock price data. Nevertheless, their performance is not always satisfactory. However, there are other influential factors which can affect the direction of stock market which form the basis of market experts’ opinion such as interest rate, inflation rate, foreign exchange rate, business sector, management caliber, government policy and political effects among others. In this paper, the effect of using market experts’ opinion in addition to the use of technical and fundamental indicators for stock price prediction is examined. Input variables extracted from these hybrid indicators are fed into a fuzzy-neural network for improved accuracy of stock price prediction. The empirical results obtained with published stock data shows that the proposed model can be effective to improving accuracy of stock price predictio

On Training Efficiency and Computational Costs of a Feed Forward Neural Network: A Review

A comprehensive review on the problem of choosing a suitable activation function for the hidden layer of a feed forward neural network has been widely investigated. Since the nonlinear component of a neural network is the main contributor to the network mapping capabilities, the different choices that may lead to enhanced performances, in terms of training, generalization, or computational costs, are analyzed, both in general-purpose and in embedded computing environments. Finally, a strategy to convert a network configuration between different activation functions without altering the network mapping capabilities will be presented

Hybrid Dynamic Modelling of Engine Emissions on Multi-Physics Simulation Platform. A Framework Combining Dynamic and Statistical Modelling to Develop Surrogate Models of System of Internal Combustion Engine for Emission Modelling

The data-driven models used for the design of powertrain controllers are typically based on the data obtained from steady-state experiments. However, they are only valid under stable conditions and do not provide any information on the dynamic behaviour of the system. In order to capture this behaviour, dynamic modelling techniques are intensively studied to generate alternative solutions for engine mapping and calibration problem, aiming to address the need to increase productivity (reduce development time) and to develop better models for the actual behaviour of the engine under real-world conditions. In this thesis, a dynamic modelling approach is presented undertaken for the prediction of NOx emissions for a 2.0 litre Diesel engine, based on a coupled pre-validated virtual Diesel engine model (GT- Suite ® 1-D air path model) and in-cylinder combustion model (CMCL ® Stochastic Reactor Model Engine Suite). In the context of the considered Engine Simulation Framework, GT Suite + Stochastic Reactor Model (SRM), one fundamental problem is to establish a real time stochastic simulation capability. This problem can be addressed by replacing the slow combustion chemistry solver (SRM) with an appropriate NOx surrogate model. The approach taken in this research for the development of this surrogate model was based on a combination of design of dynamic experiments run on the virtual diesel engine model (GT- Suite), with a dynamic model fitted for the parameters required as input to the SRM, with a zonal design of experiments (DoEs), using Optimal Latin Hypercubes (OLH), run on the SRM model. A response surface model was fitted on the predicted NOx from the SRM OLH DoE data. This surrogate NOx model was then used to replace the computationally expensive SRM simulation, enabling real-time simulations of transient drive cycles to be executed. The performance of the approach was validated on a simulated NEDC drive cycle, against experimental data collected for the engine case study. The capability of methodology to capture the transient trends of the system shows promising results and will be used for the development of global surrogate prediction models for engine-out emissions

Emergence of Convolutional Neural Network in Future Medicine: Why and How. A Review on Brain Tumor Segmentation

Manual analysis of brain tumors magnetic resonance images is usually accompanied by some problem. Several techniques have been proposed for the brain tumor segmentation. This study will be focused on searching popular databases for related studies, theoretical and practical aspects of Convolutional Neural Network surveyed in brain tumor segmentation. Based on our findings, details about related studies including the datasets used, evaluation parameters, preferred architectures and complementary steps analyzed. Deep learning as a revolutionary idea in image processing, achieved brilliant results in brain tumor segmentation too. This can be continuing until the next revolutionary idea emerging. © 2018 Behrouz Alizadeh Savareh et al., published by De Gruyter Open