Order-of-Magnitude Influence Diagrams

In this paper, we develop a qualitative theory of influence diagrams that can be used to model and solve sequential decision making tasks when only qualitative (or imprecise) information is available. Our approach is based on an order-of-magnitude approximation of both probabilities and utilities and allows for specifying partially ordered preferences via sets of utility values. We also propose a dedicated variable elimination algorithm that can be applied for solving order-of-magnitude influence diagrams

Uncertainty in Engineering

This open access book provides an introduction to uncertainty quantification in engineering. Starting with preliminaries on Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods, followed by material on imprecise probabilities, it then focuses on reliability theory and simulation methods for complex systems. The final two chapters discuss various aspects of aerospace engineering, considering stochastic model updating from an imprecise Bayesian perspective, and uncertainty quantification for aerospace flight modelling. Written by experts in the subject, and based on lectures given at the Second Training School of the European Research and Training Network UTOPIAE (Uncertainty Treatment and Optimization in Aerospace Engineering), which took place at Durham University (United Kingdom) from 2 to 6 July 2018, the book offers an essential resource for students as well as scientists and practitioners

An information model for lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain management

Dissertação para a obtenção de Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão IndustrialIn modern business environments, an effective Supply Chain Management (SCM) is crucial to business continuity. In this context, Lean, Agile, Resilient and Green (LARG), are advocated as the fundamental paradigm for a competitive Supply Chain (SC) as a whole. In fact, competition between supply chains (SC) has replaced the traditional competition between companies. To make a supply chain more competitive, capable of responding to the demands of customers with agility, and capable of responding effectively to unexpected disturbance, in conjugation with environmental responsibilities, and the necessity to eliminate processes that add no value, companies must implement a set of LARG SCM practices and Key Performance Indicators (KPI) to measure their influence on the SC performance. However, the selection of the best LARG SCM practices and KPIs is a complex decision-making problem, involving dependencies and feedbacks. Still, any decision-making must be supported by real and transparent data. This dissertation intends to provide two integrated models to assist the information management and decision-making. The first is an information model to support a LARG SCM, allowing the exchange and storage of data/information through a single information platform. In this model three types of diagrams are developed, Business Process Diagram (BPD), Use Cases Diagram and Class Diagram to assist the information platform design. The second is a decision-making model, designated LARG Analytical Network Process (ANP) to select the best LARG SCM practices/KPI to be implemented in SCs. Both models are developed and validated within the automotive SC, namely in Volkswagen Autoeuropa

Uncertainty in Engineering

This open access book provides an introduction to uncertainty quantification in engineering. Starting with preliminaries on Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods, followed by material on imprecise probabilities, it then focuses on reliability theory and simulation methods for complex systems. The final two chapters discuss various aspects of aerospace engineering, considering stochastic model updating from an imprecise Bayesian perspective, and uncertainty quantification for aerospace flight modelling. Written by experts in the subject, and based on lectures given at the Second Training School of the European Research and Training Network UTOPIAE (Uncertainty Treatment and Optimization in Aerospace Engineering), which took place at Durham University (United Kingdom) from 2 to 6 July 2018, the book offers an essential resource for students as well as scientists and practitioners

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

B

Reasoning with imprecise trade-offs in decision making under certainty and uncertainty

In many real world situations, we make decisions in the presence of multiple, often conflicting and non-commensurate objectives. The process of optimizing systematically and simultaneously over a set of objective functions is known as multi-objective optimization. In multi-objective optimization, we have a (possibly exponentially large) set of decisions and each decision has a set of alternatives. Each alternative depends on the state of the world, and is evaluated with respect to a number of criteria. In this thesis, we consider the decision making problems in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the current state of the world, under which the decisions are to be made, is known in advance. In the second scenario, the current state of the world is unknown at the time of making decisions. For decision making under certainty, we consider the framework of multiobjective constraint optimization and focus on extending the algorithms to solve these models to the case where there are additional trade-offs. We focus especially on branch-and-bound algorithms that use a mini-buckets algorithm for generating the upper bound at each node of the search tree (in the context of maximizing values of objectives). Since the size of the guiding upper bound sets can become very large during the search, we introduce efficient methods for reducing these sets, yet still maintaining the upper bound property. We define a formalism for imprecise trade-offs, which allows the decision maker during the elicitation stage, to specify a preference for one multi-objective utility vector over another, and use such preferences to infer other preferences. The induced preference relation then is used to eliminate the dominated utility vectors during the computation. For testing the dominance between multi-objective utility vectors, we present three different approaches. The first is based on a linear programming approach, the second is by use of distance-based algorithm (which uses a measure of the distance between a point and a convex cone); the third approach makes use of a matrix multiplication, which results in much faster dominance checks with respect to the preference relation induced by the trade-offs. Furthermore, we show that our trade-offs approach, which is based on a preference inference technique, can also be given an alternative semantics based on the well known Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. Our comprehensive experimental results on common multi-objective constraint optimization benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed enhancements allow the algorithms to scale up to much larger problems than before. For decision making problems under uncertainty, we describe multi-objective influence diagrams, based on a set of p objectives, where utility values are vectors in Rp, and are typically only partially ordered. These can be solved by a variable elimination algorithm, leading to a set of maximal values of expected utility. If the Pareto ordering is used this set can often be prohibitively large. We consider approximate representations of the Pareto set based on ϵ-coverings, allowing much larger problems to be solved. In addition, we define a method for incorporating user trade-offs, which also greatly improves the efficiency

Augmenting IDEs with Runtime Information for Software Maintenance

Object-oriented language features such as inheritance, abstract types, late-binding, or polymorphism lead to distributed and scattered code, rendering a software system hard to understand and maintain. The integrated development environment (IDE), the primary tool used by developers to maintain software systems, usually purely operates on static source code and does not reveal dynamic relationships between distributed source artifacts, which makes it difficult for developers to understand and navigate software systems. Another shortcoming of today's IDEs is the large amount of information with which they typically overwhelm developers. Large software systems encompass several thousand source artifacts such as classes and methods. These static artifacts are presented by IDEs in views such as trees or source editors. To gain an understanding of a system, developers have to open many such views, which leads to a workspace cluttered with different windows or tabs. Navigating through the code or maintaining a working context is thus difficult for developers working on large software systems. In this dissertation we address the question how to augment IDEs with dynamic information to better navigate scattered code while at the same time not overwhelming developers with even more information in the IDE views. We claim that by first reducing the amount of information developers have to deal with, we are subsequently able to embed dynamic information in the familiar source perspectives of IDEs to better comprehend and navigate large software spaces. We propose means to reduce or mitigate the information by highlighting relevant source elements, by explicitly representing working context, and by automatically housekeeping the workspace in the IDE. We then improve navigation of scattered code by explicitly representing dynamic collaboration and software features in the static source perspectives of IDEs. We validate our claim by conducting empirical experiments with developers and by analyzing recorded development sessions

Novel analysis and modelling methodologies applied to pultrusion and other processes

Often a manufacturing process may be a bottleneck or critical to a business. This thesis focuses on the analysis and modelling of such processest, to both better understand them, and to support the enhancement of quality or output capability of the process. The main thrusts of this thesis therefore are: To model inter-process physics, inter-relationships, and complex processes in a manner that enables re-exploitation, re-interpretation and reuse of this knowledge and generic elements e.g. using Object Oriented (00) & Qualitative Modelling (QM) techniques. This involves the development of superior process models to capture process complexity and reuse any generic elements; To demonstrate advanced modelling and simulation techniques (e.g. Artificial Neural Networks(ANN), Rule-Based-Systems (RBS), and statistical modelling) on a number of complex manufacturing case studies; To gain a better understanding of the physics and process inter-relationships exhibited in a number of complex manufacturing processes (e.g. pultrusion, bioprocess, and logistics) using analysis and modelling. To these ends, both a novel Object Oriented Qualitative (Problem) Analysis (OOQA) methodology, and a novel Artificial Neural Network Process Modelling (ANNPM) methodology were developed and applied to a number of complex manufacturing case studies- thermoset and thermoplastic pultrusion, bioprocess reactor, and a logistics supply chain. It has been shown that these methodologies and the models developed support capture of complex process inter-relationships, enable reuse of generic elements, support effective variable selection for ANN models, and perform well as a predictor of process properties. In particular the ANN pultrusion models, using laboratory data from IKV, Aachen and Pera, Melton Mowbray, predicted product properties very well