24,578 research outputs found
Causal inference for social network data
We describe semiparametric estimation and inference for causal effects using
observational data from a single social network. Our asymptotic result is the
first to allow for dependence of each observation on a growing number of other
units as sample size increases. While previous methods have generally
implicitly focused on one of two possible sources of dependence among social
network observations, we allow for both dependence due to transmission of
information across network ties, and for dependence due to latent similarities
among nodes sharing ties. We describe estimation and inference for new causal
effects that are specifically of interest in social network settings, such as
interventions on network ties and network structure. Using our methods to
reanalyze the Framingham Heart Study data used in one of the most influential
and controversial causal analyses of social network data, we find that after
accounting for network structure there is no evidence for the causal effects
claimed in the original paper
Non-Parametric Causality Detection: An Application to Social Media and Financial Data
According to behavioral finance, stock market returns are influenced by
emotional, social and psychological factors. Several recent works support this
theory by providing evidence of correlation between stock market prices and
collective sentiment indexes measured using social media data. However, a pure
correlation analysis is not sufficient to prove that stock market returns are
influenced by such emotional factors since both stock market prices and
collective sentiment may be driven by a third unmeasured factor. Controlling
for factors that could influence the study by applying multivariate regression
models is challenging given the complexity of stock market data. False
assumptions about the linearity or non-linearity of the model and inaccuracies
on model specification may result in misleading conclusions.
In this work, we propose a novel framework for causal inference that does not
require any assumption about the statistical relationships among the variables
of the study and can effectively control a large number of factors. We apply
our method in order to estimate the causal impact that information posted in
social media may have on stock market returns of four big companies. Our
results indicate that social media data not only correlate with stock market
returns but also influence them.Comment: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 201
The power of A/B testing under interference
In this paper, we address the fundamental statistical question: how can you
assess the power of an A/B test when the units in the study are exposed to
interference? This question is germane to many scientific and industrial
practitioners that rely on A/B testing in environments where control over
interference is limited. We begin by proving that interference has a measurable
effect on its sensitivity, or power. We quantify the power of an A/B test of
equality of means as a function of the number of exposed individuals under any
interference mechanism. We further derive a central limit theorem for the
number of exposed individuals under a simple Bernoulli switching interference
mechanism. Based on these results, we develop a strategy to estimate the power
of an A/B test when actors experience interference according to an observed
network model. We demonstrate how to leverage this theory to estimate the power
of an A/B test on units sharing any network relationship, and highlight the
utility of our method on two applications - a Facebook friendship network as
well as a large Twitter follower network. These results yield, for the first
time, the capacity to understand how to design an A/B test to detect, with a
specified confidence, a fixed measurable treatment effect when the A/B test is
conducted under interference driven by networks.Comment: 14 page
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