16,566 research outputs found
Local Causal States and Discrete Coherent Structures
Coherent structures form spontaneously in nonlinear spatiotemporal systems
and are found at all spatial scales in natural phenomena from laboratory
hydrodynamic flows and chemical reactions to ocean, atmosphere, and planetary
climate dynamics. Phenomenologically, they appear as key components that
organize the macroscopic behaviors in such systems. Despite a century of
effort, they have eluded rigorous analysis and empirical prediction, with
progress being made only recently. As a step in this, we present a formal
theory of coherent structures in fully-discrete dynamical field theories. It
builds on the notion of structure introduced by computational mechanics,
generalizing it to a local spatiotemporal setting. The analysis' main tool
employs the \localstates, which are used to uncover a system's hidden
spatiotemporal symmetries and which identify coherent structures as
spatially-localized deviations from those symmetries. The approach is
behavior-driven in the sense that it does not rely on directly analyzing
spatiotemporal equations of motion, rather it considers only the spatiotemporal
fields a system generates. As such, it offers an unsupervised approach to
discover and describe coherent structures. We illustrate the approach by
analyzing coherent structures generated by elementary cellular automata,
comparing the results with an earlier, dynamic-invariant-set approach that
decomposes fields into domains, particles, and particle interactions.Comment: 27 pages, 10 figures;
http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/dcs.ht
Are you going to the party: depends, who else is coming? [Learning hidden group dynamics via conditional latent tree models]
Scalable probabilistic modeling and prediction in high dimensional
multivariate time-series is a challenging problem, particularly for systems
with hidden sources of dependence and/or homogeneity. Examples of such problems
include dynamic social networks with co-evolving nodes and edges and dynamic
student learning in online courses. Here, we address these problems through the
discovery of hierarchical latent groups. We introduce a family of Conditional
Latent Tree Models (CLTM), in which tree-structured latent variables
incorporate the unknown groups. The latent tree itself is conditioned on
observed covariates such as seasonality, historical activity, and node
attributes. We propose a statistically efficient framework for learning both
the hierarchical tree structure and the parameters of the CLTM. We demonstrate
competitive performance in multiple real world datasets from different domains.
These include a dataset on students' attempts at answering questions in a
psychology MOOC, Twitter users participating in an emergency management
discussion and interacting with one another, and windsurfers interacting on a
beach in Southern California. In addition, our modeling framework provides
valuable and interpretable information about the hidden group structures and
their effect on the evolution of the time series
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