Modeling Taxi Drivers' Behaviour for the Next Destination Prediction

In this paper, we study how to model taxi drivers' behaviour and geographical information for an interesting and challenging task: the next destination prediction in a taxi journey. Predicting the next location is a well studied problem in human mobility, which finds several applications in real-world scenarios, from optimizing the efficiency of electronic dispatching systems to predicting and reducing the traffic jam. This task is normally modeled as a multiclass classification problem, where the goal is to select, among a set of already known locations, the next taxi destination. We present a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) approach that models the taxi drivers' behaviour and encodes the semantics of visited locations by using geographical information from Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs). In particular, RNNs are trained to predict the exact coordinates of the next destination, overcoming the problem of producing, in output, a limited set of locations, seen during the training phase. The proposed approach was tested on the ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge 2015 dataset - based on the city of Porto -, obtaining better results with respect to the competition winner, whilst using less information, and on Manhattan and San Francisco datasets.Comment: preprint version of a paper submitted to IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System

Exploring universal patterns in human home-work commuting from mobile phone data

Home-work commuting has always attracted significant research attention because of its impact on human mobility. One of the key assumptions in this domain of study is the universal uniformity of commute times. However, a true comparison of commute patterns has often been hindered by the intrinsic differences in data collection methods, which make observation from different countries potentially biased and unreliable. In the present work, we approach this problem through the use of mobile phone call detail records (CDRs), which offers a consistent method for investigating mobility patterns in wholly different parts of the world. We apply our analysis to a broad range of datasets, at both the country and city scale. Additionally, we compare these results with those obtained from vehicle GPS traces in Milan. While different regions have some unique commute time characteristics, we show that the home-work time distributions and average values within a single region are indeed largely independent of commute distance or country (Portugal, Ivory Coast, and Boston)--despite substantial spatial and infrastructural differences. Furthermore, a comparative analysis demonstrates that such distance-independence holds true only if we consider multimodal commute behaviors--as consistent with previous studies. In car-only (Milan GPS traces) and car-heavy (Saudi Arabia) commute datasets, we see that commute time is indeed influenced by commute distance

CT-Mapper: Mapping Sparse Multimodal Cellular Trajectories using a Multilayer Transportation Network

Mobile phone data have recently become an attractive source of information about mobility behavior. Since cell phone data can be captured in a passive way for a large user population, they can be harnessed to collect well-sampled mobility information. In this paper, we propose CT-Mapper, an unsupervised algorithm that enables the mapping of mobile phone traces over a multimodal transport network. One of the main strengths of CT-Mapper is its capability to map noisy sparse cellular multimodal trajectories over a multilayer transportation network where the layers have different physical properties and not only to map trajectories associated with a single layer. Such a network is modeled by a large multilayer graph in which the nodes correspond to metro/train stations or road intersections and edges correspond to connections between them. The mapping problem is modeled by an unsupervised HMM where the observations correspond to sparse user mobile trajectories and the hidden states to the multilayer graph nodes. The HMM is unsupervised as the transition and emission probabilities are inferred using respectively the physical transportation properties and the information on the spatial coverage of antenna base stations. To evaluate CT-Mapper we collected cellular traces with their corresponding GPS trajectories for a group of volunteer users in Paris and vicinity (France). We show that CT-Mapper is able to accurately retrieve the real cell phone user paths despite the sparsity of the observed trace trajectories. Furthermore our transition probability model is up to 20% more accurate than other naive models.Comment: Under revision in Computer Communication Journa

Inferring accurate bus trajectories from noisy estimated arrival time records

National Research Foundation (NRF) Singapore under its International Research Centres in Singapore Funding Initiativ