6,298 research outputs found
Stochastic Prediction of Multi-Agent Interactions from Partial Observations
We present a method that learns to integrate temporal information, from a
learned dynamics model, with ambiguous visual information, from a learned
vision model, in the context of interacting agents. Our method is based on a
graph-structured variational recurrent neural network (Graph-VRNN), which is
trained end-to-end to infer the current state of the (partially observed)
world, as well as to forecast future states. We show that our method
outperforms various baselines on two sports datasets, one based on real
basketball trajectories, and one generated by a soccer game engine.Comment: ICLR 2019 camera read
Probabilistic models of individual and collective animal behavior
Recent developments in automated tracking allow uninterrupted,
high-resolution recording of animal trajectories, sometimes coupled with the
identification of stereotyped changes of body pose or other behaviors of
interest. Analysis and interpretation of such data represents a challenge: the
timing of animal behaviors may be stochastic and modulated by kinematic
variables, by the interaction with the environment or with the conspecifics
within the animal group, and dependent on internal cognitive or behavioral
state of the individual. Existing models for collective motion typically fail
to incorporate the discrete, stochastic, and internal-state-dependent aspects
of behavior, while models focusing on individual animal behavior typically
ignore the spatial aspects of the problem. Here we propose a probabilistic
modeling framework to address this gap. Each animal can switch stochastically
between different behavioral states, with each state resulting in a possibly
different law of motion through space. Switching rates for behavioral
transitions can depend in a very general way, which we seek to identify from
data, on the effects of the environment as well as the interaction between the
animals. We represent the switching dynamics as a Generalized Linear Model and
show that: (i) forward simulation of multiple interacting animals is possible
using a variant of the Gillespie's Stochastic Simulation Algorithm; (ii)
formulated properly, the maximum likelihood inference of switching rate
functions is tractably solvable by gradient descent; (iii) model selection can
be used to identify factors that modulate behavioral state switching and to
appropriately adjust model complexity to data. To illustrate our framework, we
apply it to two synthetic models of animal motion and to real zebrafish
tracking data.Comment: 26 pages, 11 figure
Multi-locus analysis of genomic time series data from experimental evolution.
Genomic time series data generated by evolve-and-resequence (E&R) experiments offer a powerful window into the mechanisms that drive evolution. However, standard population genetic inference procedures do not account for sampling serially over time, and new methods are needed to make full use of modern experimental evolution data. To address this problem, we develop a Gaussian process approximation to the multi-locus Wright-Fisher process with selection over a time course of tens of generations. The mean and covariance structure of the Gaussian process are obtained by computing the corresponding moments in discrete-time Wright-Fisher models conditioned on the presence of a linked selected site. This enables our method to account for the effects of linkage and selection, both along the genome and across sampled time points, in an approximate but principled manner. We first use simulated data to demonstrate the power of our method to correctly detect, locate and estimate the fitness of a selected allele from among several linked sites. We study how this power changes for different values of selection strength, initial haplotypic diversity, population size, sampling frequency, experimental duration, number of replicates, and sequencing coverage depth. In addition to providing quantitative estimates of selection parameters from experimental evolution data, our model can be used by practitioners to design E&R experiments with requisite power. We also explore how our likelihood-based approach can be used to infer other model parameters, including effective population size and recombination rate. Then, we apply our method to analyze genome-wide data from a real E&R experiment designed to study the adaptation of D. melanogaster to a new laboratory environment with alternating cold and hot temperatures
- …