Learning Occupational Task-Shares Dynamics for the Future of Work

The recent wave of AI and automation has been argued to differ from previous General Purpose Technologies (GPTs), in that it may lead to rapid change in occupations' underlying task requirements and persistent technological unemployment. In this paper, we apply a novel methodology of dynamic task shares to a large dataset of online job postings to explore how exactly occupational task demands have changed over the past decade of AI innovation, especially across high, mid and low wage occupations. Notably, big data and AI have risen significantly among high wage occupations since 2012 and 2016, respectively. We built an ARIMA model to predict future occupational task demands and showcase several relevant examples in Healthcare, Administration, and IT. Such task demands predictions across occupations will play a pivotal role in retraining the workforce of the future.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables, Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society (AIES), 202

LOCAL LABOR MARKETS EXPOSURE TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

As more evidence builds that artificial intelligence (AI) is a new general-purpose technology driving a fourth industrial revolution, scholars have begun to consider its potential impact on labor markets. The current debate among researchers is centered on whether AI will ultimately produce net new job gains or losses and what type of workers will benefit or be displaced. While no consensus has developed yet within the literature on AI’s predicted net employment impact, a majority of studies are forecasting that a skill-biased technological change will occur. This exploratory study contributes to the current literature by operationalizing Webb’s objective patent-based AI Exposure Index at a local labor market level. The study leveraged longitudinal data analysis to measure the effect of AI exposure on changes to employment at an occupational level from 2010-2019 in San Diego County, California. By applying this exploratory methodology, the study yielded several noteworthy findings. First, the analysis showed an overall positive association between employment totals and AI exposure across all levels of Webb\u27s AI Exposure Index. Second, preliminary evidence of potential skill-bias change was noted with non-high-skill occupations exhibiting slower employment growth compared to high-skill occupations at similar levels of AI exposure. Lastly, specific occupational groups and occupations displayed potential early indications of employment loss attributable to AI exposure. For example, the occupation titled “Pickers and Packagers, Hand” within the material movers and transportation occupational group demonstrated both high levels of AI exposure and reductions in employment totals during the period analyzed. However, it is critical to emphasize that large standard errors limit the precision of model estimates. This study has implications for local labor market leaders by providing insights into AI exposure and employment trends. This exploratory methodological approach has potential for application to other local labor markets and offers opportunities for further scholarly research. Finally, this study makes a novel contribution to the labor literature with its localized focus, objective methodology and preliminary occupational-level employment change findings

Artificial Superintelligence: Coordination & Strategy

Attention in the AI safety community has increasingly started to include strategic considerations of coordination between relevant actors in the field of AI and AI safety, in addition to the steadily growing work on the technical considerations of building safe AI systems. This shift has several reasons: Multiplier effects, pragmatism, and urgency. Given the benefits of coordination between those working towards safe superintelligence, this book surveys promising research in this emerging field regarding AI safety. On a meta-level, the hope is that this book can serve as a map to inform those working in the field of AI coordination about other promising efforts. While this book focuses on AI safety coordination, coordination is important to most other known existential risks (e.g., biotechnology risks), and future, human-made existential risks. Thus, while most coordination strategies in this book are specific to superintelligence, we hope that some insights yield “collateral benefits” for the reduction of other existential risks, by creating an overall civilizational framework that increases robustness, resiliency, and antifragility

Virtual software in reality

Software visualisation is an important weapon in the program comprehension armoury. It is a technique that can, when designed and used effectively, aid in understanding existing program code. It can achieve this by displaying information in new and different forms, which may make obvious something missed in reading the code. It can also be used to present many aspects of the data at once. Software, despite many software engineering advances in requirements, design and implementation techniques, continues to be complex and large and if anything seems to be growing in these respects. This means that techniques that failed to aid comprehension and maintenance are certainly not going to be able to deal with the current software. Therefore this area requires research to be able to suggest solutions to deal with the information overload that is sure to occur. There are several issues that this thesis addresses; all of them related to the creation of software visualisation systems that are capable of being used and useful well into the next generation of software systems. The scale and complexity of software are pressing issues, as is the associated information overload problem that this brings. In an attempt to address this problem the following are considered to be important: abstractions, representations, mappings, metaphors, and visualisations. These areas are interrelated and the first four enable the final one, visualisations. These problems are not the only ones that face software visualisation systems. There are many that are based on the general theory of the applicability of the technique to such tasks as program comprehension, rather than the detail of how a particular code fragment is shown. These problems are also related to the enabling technology of three- dimensional visualisations; virtual reality. In summary the areas of interest are: automation, evolution, scalability, navigation and interaction, correlation, and visual complexity. This thesis provides an exploration of these identified areas in the context of software visualisation. Relationships that describe, and distinguish between, existing and future software visualisations are presented, with examples based on recent software visualisation research. Two real world metaphors (and their associated mappings and representations) are defined for the purpose of visualising software as an aid to program comprehension. These metaphors also provide a vehicle for the exploration of the areas identified above. Finally, an evaluation of the visualisations is presented using a framework developed for the comparative evaluation of three-dimensional, comprehension oriented, software visualisations. This thesis has shown the viability of using three-dimensional software visualisations. The important issues of automation, evolution, scalability, and navigation have been presented and discussed, and their relationship to real world metaphors examined. This has been done in conjunction with an investigation into the use of such real world metaphors for software visualisation. The thesis as a whole has provided an important examination of many of the issues related to these types of visualisation in the context of software and is therefore a valuable basis for future work in this area

Process Mining Handbook

This is an open access book. This book comprises all the single courses given as part of the First Summer School on Process Mining, PMSS 2022, which was held in Aachen, Germany, during July 4-8, 2022. This volume contains 17 chapters organized into the following topical sections: Introduction; process discovery; conformance checking; data preprocessing; process enhancement and monitoring; assorted process mining topics; industrial perspective and applications; and closing

Advanced Automation for Space Missions

The feasibility of using machine intelligence, including automation and robotics, in future space missions was studied

Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Workshop of the Psychology of Programming Interest Group

This is the Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Workshop of the Psychology of Programming Interest Group (PPIG). This was the first PPIG to be held physically since 2019, following the two online-only PPIGs in 2020 and 2021, both during the Covid pandemic. It was also the first PPIG conference to be designed specifically for hybrid attendance. Reflecting the theme, it was hosted by Music Computing Lab at the Open University in Milton Keynes