Inference with Constrained Hidden Markov Models in PRISM

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference. Defining HMMs with side-constraints in Constraint Logic Programming have advantages in terms of more compact expression and pruning opportunities during inference. We present a PRISM-based framework for extending HMMs with side-constraints and show how well-known constraints such as cardinality and all different are integrated. We experimentally validate our approach on the biologically motivated problem of global pairwise alignment

Quantum causal models, faithfulness and retrocausality

Wood and Spekkens (2015) argue that any causal model explaining the EPRB correlations and satisfying no-signalling must also violate the assumption that the model faithfully reproduces the statistical dependences and independences---a so-called "fine-tuning" of the causal parameters; this includes, in particular, retrocausal explanations of the EPRB correlations. I consider this analysis with a view to enumerating the possible responses an advocate of retrocausal explanations might propose. I focus on the response of N\"{a}ger (2015), who argues that the central ideas of causal explanations can be saved if one accepts the possibility of a stable fine-tuning of the causal parameters. I argue that, in light of this view, a violation of faithfulness does not necessarily rule out retrocausal explanations of the EPRB correlations, although it certainly constrains such explanations. I conclude by considering some possible consequences of this type of response for retrocausal explanations

Inference in Probabilistic Logic Programs with Continuous Random Variables

Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP), exemplified by Sato and Kameya's PRISM, Poole's ICL, Raedt et al's ProbLog and Vennekens et al's LPAD, is aimed at combining statistical and logical knowledge representation and inference. A key characteristic of PLP frameworks is that they are conservative extensions to non-probabilistic logic programs which have been widely used for knowledge representation. PLP frameworks extend traditional logic programming semantics to a distribution semantics, where the semantics of a probabilistic logic program is given in terms of a distribution over possible models of the program. However, the inference techniques used in these works rely on enumerating sets of explanations for a query answer. Consequently, these languages permit very limited use of random variables with continuous distributions. In this paper, we present a symbolic inference procedure that uses constraints and represents sets of explanations without enumeration. This permits us to reason over PLPs with Gaussian or Gamma-distributed random variables (in addition to discrete-valued random variables) and linear equality constraints over reals. We develop the inference procedure in the context of PRISM; however the procedure's core ideas can be easily applied to other PLP languages as well. An interesting aspect of our inference procedure is that PRISM's query evaluation process becomes a special case in the absence of any continuous random variables in the program. The symbolic inference procedure enables us to reason over complex probabilistic models such as Kalman filters and a large subclass of Hybrid Bayesian networks that were hitherto not possible in PLP frameworks. (To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming).Comment: 12 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1203.428

05051 Abstracts Collection -- Probabilistic, Logical and Relational Learning - Towards a Synthesis

From 30.01.05 to 04.02.05, the Dagstuhl Seminar 05051 ``Probabilistic, Logical and Relational Learning - Towards a Synthesis\u27\u27 was held in the International Conference and Research Center (IBFI), Schloss Dagstuhl. During the seminar, several participants presented their current research, and ongoing work and open problems were discussed. Abstracts of the presentations given during the seminar as well as abstracts of seminar results and ideas are put together in this paper. The first section describes the seminar topics and goals in general. Links to extended abstracts or full papers are provided, if available

Efficiency in ambiguity: two models of probabilistic semantics for natural language

This paper explores theoretical issues in constructing an adequate probabilistic semantics for natural language. Two approaches are contrasted. The first extends Montague Semantics with a probability distribution over models. It has nice theoretical properties, but does not account for the ubiquitous nature of ambiguity; moreover inference is NP hard. An alternative approach is described in which a sequence of pairs of sentences and truth values is generated randomly. By sacrificing some of the nice theoretical properties of the first approach it is possible to model ambiguity naturally; moreover inference now has polynomial time complexity. Both approaches provide a compositional semantics and account for the gradience of semantic judgements of belief and inference