The effects of climate change on Baltic salmon : Framing the problem in collaboration with expert stakeholders

In the Baltic Sea region, salmon are valued for the ecological, economic, and cultural benefits they provide. However, these fish are threatened due to historical overfishing, disease, and reduced access to spawning rivers. Climate change may pose another challenge for salmon management. Therefore, we conducted a problem-framing study to explore the effects climate change may have on salmon and the socio-ecological system they are embedded within. Addressing this emerging issue will require the cooperation of diverse stakeholders and the integration of their knowledge and values in a contentious management context. Therefore, we conducted this problem framing as a participatory process with stakeholders, whose mental models and questionnaire responses form the basis of this study. By framing the climate change problem in this way, we aim to provide a holistic understanding of the problem and incorporate stakeholder perspectives into the management process from an early stage to better address their concerns and establish common ground. We conclude that considering climate change is relevant for Baltic salmon management, although it may not be the most pressing threat facing these fish. Stakeholders disagree about whether climate change will harm or benefit salmon, when it will become a relevant issue in the Baltic context, and whether or not management efforts can mitigate any negative impacts climate change may have on salmon and their fishery. Nevertheless, by synthesizing the stakeholders' influence diagrams, we found 15 themes exemplifying: (1) how climate change may affect salmon, (2) goals for salmon management considering climate change, and (3) strategies for achieving those goals. Further, the stakeholders tended to focus on the riverine environment and the salmon life stages occurring therein, potentially indicating the perceived vulnerability of these life stages to climate change. Interestingly, however, the stakeholders tended to focus on traditional fishery management measures, like catch quotas, to meet their goals for these fish considering climate change. Further, social variables, like “politics,” “international cooperation,” and “employment” comprised a large proportion of the stakeholders' diagrams, demonstrating the importance of these factors for salmon management.Peer reviewe

Catching the future : Applying Bayesian belief networks to exploratory scenario storylines to assess long‐term changes in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras, Clupeidae) and salmon (Salmo salar, Salmonidae) fisheries

Fisheries management aims to ensure that the fishing activities are environmentally sustainable in the long term, while also achieving the economic, social and food security related management objectives. To facilitate this, both the ecological and human dimensions of sustainability need to be included in fisheries assessment. In addition, assessing long-term sustainability calls for taking into account plausible changes in the surrounding societal conditions that shape the characteristics of the fisheries governance system, as well as the ecological conditions. The paper uses a combination of qualitative exploratory scenario storylines (ESS) and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to integrate the environmental, economic, social and food security dimensions in an interdisciplinary assessment of the future sustainability of Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras, Clupeidae) and salmon (Salmo salar, Salmonidae) fisheries. First, four alternative ESS were created based on plausible changes in societal drivers. The ESS were then formulated into a BBN to (a) visualize the assumed causalities, and (b) examine quantitatively how changes in the societal drivers affect the social-ecological fisheries system and ultimately the fisheries management objectives. This type of probabilistic scenario synthesis can help in thinking qualitative scenarios in a quantitative way. Moreover, it can increase understanding on the causal links between societal driving forces and the complex fisheries system and on how the management objectives can be achieved, thereby providing valuable information for strategic decision-making under uncertainty.Peer reviewe

Children balance theories and evidence in exploration, explanation, and learning

We look at the effect of evidence and prior beliefs on exploration, explanation and learning. In Experiment 1, we tested children both with and without differential prior beliefs about balance relationships (Center Theorists, mean: 82 months; Mass Theorists, mean: 89 months; No Theory children, mean: 62 months). Center and Mass Theory children who observed identical evidence explored the block differently depending on their beliefs. When the block was balanced at its geometric center (belief-violating to a Mass Theorist, but belief-consistent to a Center Theorist), Mass Theory children explored the block more, and Center Theory children showed the standard novelty preference; when the block was balanced at the center of mass, the pattern of results reversed. The No Theory children showed a novelty preference regardless of evidence. In Experiments 2 and 3, we follow-up on these findings, showing that both Mass and Center Theorists selectively and differentially appeal to auxiliary variables (e.g., a magnet) to explain evidence only when their beliefs are violated. We also show that children use the data to revise their predictions in the absence of the explanatory auxiliary variable but not in its presence. Taken together, these results suggest that children’s learning is at once conservative and flexible; children integrate evidence, prior beliefs, and competing causal hypotheses in their exploration, explanation, and learning.American Psychological Foundation (Elizabeth Munsterberg Koppitz Fellowship)James S. McDonnell Foundation (Collaborative Interdisciplinary Grant on Causal Reasoning)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF Faculty Early Career Development Award)Templeton Foundation (Award

Multi-criteria decision analysis in Bayesian networks-Diagnosing ecosystem service trade-offs in a hydropower regulated river

The paper demonstrates the use of Bayesian networks in multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of environmental design alternatives for environmental flows (eflows) and physical habitat remediation measures in the Mandalselva River in Norway. We demonstrate how MCDA using multi-attribute value functions can be implemented in a Bayesian network with decision and utility nodes. An object-oriented Bayesian network is used to integrate impacts computed in quantitative sub-models of hydropower revenues and Atlantic salmon smolt production and qualitative judgement models of mesohabitat fishability and riverscape aesthetics. We show how conditional probability tables are useful for modelling uncertainty in value scaling functions, and variance in criteria weights due to different stakeholder preferences. While the paper demonstrates the technical feasibility of MCDA in a BN, we also discuss the challenge

Development of a scenario-based approach for responding to change in fishery systems: a case study in the small-scale fisheries of South Africa's Southern Cape

Small-scale fishers and the communities they support face a range of challenges brought on by change in their marine social-ecological systems (SES). The resulting complexity and uncertainty hamper their ability to achieve sustainability while holding implications for decision-making at various scales: fishers need to respond proactively to change at smaller scales of operation while managers need to apply the principles of ecosystem-based management approaches such as an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAF) at larger scales. Using the small-scale fishing communities of South Africa’s southern Cape as a case study, this thesis explores how structured decision-making tools (specifically causal mapping, Bayesian belief networks and scenario planning) can be applied in an interactive and iterative scenario-based approach with disenfranchised fishers in support of decision-making at multiple scales. Specifically, this thesis aims to (1) determine and describe major stressors in the fishery system of the southern Cape using the perspectives from the crew component of its line fishery; (2) establish what interactions and feedback loops (drivers of change) exist and interact at various scales; (3) use Bayesian belief network modelling in an iterative participatory process to establish the prominent drivers of change within the fishery system (from the crew perspective); (4) develop, together with fishers, four stories of what the future may hold for one of the towns using an iterative participatory scenario planning exercise, based on some of the principles of transformative scenario planning approaches; (5) evaluate the contextual suitability of the application of the various tools used throughout the research process and recommend next steps in a larger scenario planning process; and (6) create an opportunity for fishers to engage in a process that could enhance their understanding of possible change response strategies through learning, thereby increasing adaptive capacity in the support of the implementation of an EAF in South Africa. As a start, drivers of change were established and documented, complementing earlier research. This was done to ensure that all user groups’ views were represented in an initial causal map showing the drivers of change in the fishery system. In the causal mapping process, stakeholders from towns across the research area mapped out drivers of change in an iterative process. The causal maps not only helped to frame the system but also revealed important hidden drivers of change as well as feedback loops. The Bayesian belief network and scenario story development took place in the town of Melkhoutfontein. Bayesian belief networks provided insights into system uncertainty while serving as a problem reframing tool. The outputs of both the causal maps and Bayesian networks were then used to construct four scenario stories depicting possible futures in 30 years, based on inputs obtained from research participants in a visioning workshop. These scenarios not only provided examples of plausible futures under certain conditions but also promoted new ways of thinking about the drivers of change and their likely effects, highlighting the interconnectedness in the system. Implementing the overarching approach has provided marginalised fishers with an opportunity to freely air their views while engaging with new tools. The process does not only benefit fishers and their communities (at the small scale) but also provide valuables insights into how fishers view and experience the marine SES of the southern Cape. Moreover, the approach has identified ways in which challenges presented by scale in SES can be better addressed to ensure more effective decision-making in the pursuit of sustainability. This understanding and insight are integral for moving closer to the implementation of the EAF in South Africa, where the integration of the social dimensions of marine social-ecological systems into coherent evaluation and planning continues to be problematic

The Power of Perspectives : Developing and Implementing Inter and Transdisciplinary Methods to Address Wicked Socio-Environmental Problems

Today, the wicked socio-ecological problems facing the world, like climate change and food security, are far too large-scale and complex for any single institution or academic discipline to address alone. Further, these often-contentious issues affect various stakeholders. Therefore, progress requires socially sensitive solutions that take all relevant parties' knowledge and values into account. Hence, participatory problem-solving approaches, like inter and transdisciplinary science, which invite diverse perspectives into the problem-solving process, are attractive options for combatting wicked problems. By integrating diverse knowledge bases and modes of thinking, these approaches can produce more creative, credible, democratically accountable, and socially acceptable solutions. However, despite the benefits they provide, these approaches must be developed further to ensure they reach their full potential. As such, chapters I and II of this thesis aim to promote the incremental advancement of inter and transdisciplinary science on two dimensions: First, chapter I aims to draw attention to the critical process of strengthening communication via cognitive integration. Cognitive integration "bridges the gaps" in understanding between members of diverse problem-solving teams, which eases communication and promotes collaborative work. Chapter I uses a paired structural topic modeling and interview analysis approach to identify and describe different perspectives about "risk," a key concept for the operational interdisciplinary team studied. Within this team, diverse perspectives about ideas as fundamental as the definition of risk and potential conflict areas were found, like the idea of quantitative risk analysis. Transparently revealing and describing the differences in perspectives within diverse teams in this way at the beginning of their collaborative work could help facilitate cognitive integration and direct conflict resolution efforts, thereby enabling inter and transdisciplinary teams to begin their work more smoothly and effectively. The second area for development this thesis aims to address is the lack of peer-reviewed methods in inter and transdisciplinary research. Specifically, chapter II describes the development of a new method for mental model elicitation, which is a popular tool within transdisciplinary research. Mental model elicitation is intended to document a participant's causal understanding of a problem system. However, the academic literature rarely discusses the elicitation process, and those approaches it does describe, direct and indirect elicitation, are likely to either oversimplify the participants' ideas or introduce facilitator bias, respectively. Chapter II describes the Rich Elicitation Approach (REA), which combines both approaches in a single framework to maintain the benefits of each while compensating for their shortcomings. Unlike chapters I and II, the final chapter of this thesis, chapter III, focuses on a real-world transdisciplinary problem-solving effort. Specifically, chapter III reports the outcomes of a problem framing study to understand how climate change may affect salmon and their fishery in the Baltic Sea region and direct fishery management accordingly. Chapter III makes use of the REA developed in chapter II, as stakeholders' mental models form the basis of this study. By analyzing these models, 15 themes describing the problem, goals for the salmon management considering climate change, and strategies to help achieve those goals were found. Additionally, chapter III identified potentially conflicting values and ideas that salmon management may need to address moving forward. Problem framing is only the first step toward addressing the climate change issue for salmon management. Continuing efforts will require the cooperation of diverse problem-solving teams in a contentious management context, which could be facilitated by transparently acknowledging and describing perspective differences, as was done in chapter I.Monet maailmanlaajuiset ongelmat, kuten ilmastonmuutos tai ruokavarmuuden turvaaminen tulevaisuudessa, ovat hyvin laaja-alaisia ja monimutkaisia. Tällaisia ongelmia luonnehtii tulkinnanvaraisuus, jopa kiistanalaisuus, ja niiden tutkimukseen liittyy epävarmuuksia. Päätöksenteko siitä, miten tällaisia ongelmia tulisi hallita, on vaikeaa. Hallinnan tavoitteiden saavuttaminen myös edellyttää, että sidosryhmät hyväksyvät päätökset ja sitoutuvat niihin. Päätöksenteon tueksi tarvitaan tietoa. Monimutkaisia ongelmia ei kuitenkaan pystytä ratkaisemaan yksittäisen tieteenalan tai asiantuntijatahon tuottaman tiedon pohjalta. Tarvitaan tieteidenvälistä (interdisiplinaarista) ja akateemista ja ei-akateemista tietoa yhdistävää (transdisiplinaarista) monialaista tutkimusta. Tieteidenvälisellä tutkimuksella tarkoitetaan yhteistyötä eri tieteenaloja edustavien tutkijoiden välillä. Transdisiplinaarinen tutkimus sitä vastoin perustuu eri alojen tutkijoiden ja tieteenalojen ulkopuolisten asiantuntijoiden tai sidosryhmien väliseen yhteistyöhön. Molemmissa tutkimustavoissa ”lyödään viisaat päät yhteen”. Ajatuksena on siis, että monimutkaisten ongelmien ratkaisemiseen tarvitaan monenlaisten asiantuntijoiden monipuolista tietoa, taitoja ja yhteistyötä. Monialaiseen ja –tieteiseen yhteistyöhön perustuva tiedon tuottaminen ja ongelmanratkaisu voi olla tehokasta, mutta myös vaikeaa. Jotta tällainen tutkimus voi tuottaa todellisia vaikuttavia tuloksia, tutkimusmenetelmiä pitää kehittää. Tämän väitöskirjan tavoitteena on 1) kehittää uusia menetelmiä yhteistoiminnallisen ongelmanratkaisun helpottamiseksi, ja 2) soveltaa näitä menetelmiä Itämeren lohikantojen hallintaan liittyvässä tapaustutkimuksessa. Luvussa I kehitimme menetelmän, jonka avulla voidaan nostaa esiin ja tarkastella tutkimusryhmän sisällä vallitsevia erilaisia näkökulmia tutkimukseen liittyvään keskeiseen aiheeseen tai käsitteeseen, ja käsityksiä tällaisesta aiheesta tai käsitteestä. Loimme menetelmän ja testasimme sitä monitieteisessä ryhmässä, jossa tarkastelun kohteena oli ryhmän jäsenten ymmärrys käsitteestä ’riski’. Havaitsimme, että eri tutkijoiden näkökulmat jopa riskin kaltaiseen peruskäsitteeseen voivat vaihdella hyvin paljon ja että käsite voidaan ymmärtää monin eri tavoin. Tutkijoiden välillä vaihteleva ymmärrys keskeisestä käsitteestä voi helposti johtaa ideologisiin tai muihin ristiriitoihin heidän välillään, ja siten hidastaa tai hankaloittaa tutkimusta. Näkökulmien avaaminen ja jakaminen ja niiden välisten erojen kuvaaminen puolestaan vahvistaa tutkijoiden välistä kommunikaatiota tieteidenvälisessä ja monialaisessa ryhmässä, ja johtaa jaettuun ymmärrykseen siitä, miten tietty käsite hahmotetaan. Samalla se mahdollistaa sujuvamman ja tehokkaamman yhteistyön tutkimusprosessin alusta alkaen. Luvussa II kehitimme menetelmän asiantuntijoiden ja sidosryhmiin kuuluvien ihmisten ajatusmallien hahmottamiseen, dokumentointiin ja analysointiin. Ajatusmalleja käytetään transdisiplinaarisessa tutkimuksessa kuvaamaan, miten ihmiset ymmärtävät ympärillään olevaa maailmaa ja sen toimintaa. Usein ajatusmallit dokumentoidaan visuaalisesti kausaalisuhteiden (syy-seuraus) avulla. Menetelmät eivät kuitenkaan aina onnistu esittämään ajatusmalleja kokonaisuuksina tai riittävän tarkasti, mikä voi vääristää tuloksia. Loimme menetelmän, jota kutsumme nimellä Rich Elicitation Approach (REA), täydentämään näitä puutteita. Menetelmän avulla asiantuntijoiden tai sidosryhmiin kuuluvien ihmisten tieto voidaan hahmottaa, dokumentoida ja analysoida tarkemmin ihmisen ajatusmallia noudattaen. Luvussa III käytimme REA-menetelmää transdisiplinaarisessa tapaustutkimuksessa tarkastelemaan ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia Itämeren lohikantoihin sekä niiden kalastukseen ja kalastuksen hallintaan. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli hahmottaa, dokumentoida ja analysoida, miten eri asiantuntijat ja sidosryhmien edustajat ymmärtävät ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset lohikantoihin, millaisia tavoitteita he pitävät tärkeinä lohikantojen ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset huomioon ottavassa hallinnassa, ja millaisia strategioita tavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi heidän käsityksensä mukaan tarvitaan. Analyysi tuotti 15 ongelmaa kuvaavaa teemaa, erilaisia tavoitteita lohikantojen hallintaan, ja monia strategioita näiden tavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi. Lisäksi tunnistettiin arvoja ja käsityksiä, jotka voivat olla ristiriidassa keskenään ja jotka tulisi ottaa huomioon lohikantojen hallinnassa. Tämä tutkimus on ensimmäinen systemaattinen tarkastelu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksista Itämeren lohikantoihin ja niiden hallintaan. Jotta lohikantojen kestävyys voidaan turvata, tarvitaan monipuoliseen asiantuntijuuteen perustuvaa jatkotutkimusta päätöksenteon tueksi. Yhteistyö eri aloja edustavien asiantuntijoiden ja tutkijoiden välillä on tehokkaampaa, jos näkökulmien erot tiedostetaan, tunnistetaan ja kuvataan luvussa I kuvatun menetelmän avulla

Causal learning across culture and socioeconomic status

Extensive research has explored the ability of young children to learn about the causal structure of the world from patterns of evidence. These studies, however, have been conducted with middle-class samples from North America and Europe. In the present study, low-income Peruvian 4- and 5-year-olds and adults, low-income U.S. 4- and 5-year-olds in Head Start programs, and middle-class children from the United States participated in a causal learning task (N = 435). Consistent with previous studies, children learned both specific causal relations and more abstract causal principles across culture and socioeconomic status (SES). The Peruvian children and adults generally performed like middle-class U.S. children and adults, but the low-SES U.S. children showed some differences