Methods and practice of detecting selection in human cancers

Cancer development and progression is an evolutionary process, understanding these evolutionary dynamics is important for treatment and diagnosis as how a cancer evolves determines its future prognosis. This thesis focuses on elucidating selective evolutionary pressures in cancers and somatic tissues using population genetics models and cancer genomics data. First a model for the expected diversity in the absence of selection was developed. This neutral model of evolution predicts that under neutrality the frequency of subclonal mutations is expected to follow a power law distribution. Surprisingly more than 30% of cancer across multiple cohorts fitted this model. The next part of the thesis develops models to explore the effects of selection given these should be observable as deviations from the neutral prediction. For this I developed two approaches. The first approach investigated selection at the level of individual samples and showed that a characteristic pattern of clusters of mutations is observed in deep sequencing experiments. Using a mathematical model, information encoded within these clusters can be used to measure the relative fitness of subclones and the time they emerge during tumour evolution. With this I observed strikingly high fitness advantages for subclones of above 20%. The second approach enables measuring recurrent patterns of selection in cohorts of sequenced cancers using dN/dS, the ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous mutations, a method originally developed for molecular species evolution. This approach demonstrates how selection coefficients can be extracted by combining measurements of dN/dS with the size of mutational lineages. With this approach selection coefficients were again observed to be strikingly high. Finally I looked at population dynamics in normal colonic tissue given that many mutations accumulate in physiologically normal tissue. I found that the current view of stem cell dynamics was unable to explain sequencing data from individual colonic crypts. Some new models were proposed that introduce a longer time scale evolution that suppresses the accumulation of mutations which appear consistent with the data

Cancer evolution: mathematical models and computational inference.

Cancer is a somatic evolutionary process characterized by the accumulation of mutations, which contribute to tumor growth, clinical progression, immune escape, and drug resistance development. Evolutionary theory can be used to analyze the dynamics of tumor cell populations and to make inference about the evolutionary history of a tumor from molecular data. We review recent approaches to modeling the evolution of cancer, including population dynamics models of tumor initiation and progression, phylogenetic methods to model the evolutionary relationship between tumor subclones, and probabilistic graphical models to describe dependencies among mutations. Evolutionary modeling helps to understand how tumors arise and will also play an increasingly important prognostic role in predicting disease progression and the outcome of medical interventions, such as targeted therapy.FM would like to acknowledge the support of The University of Cambridge, Cancer Research UK and Hutchison Whampoa Limited.This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://sysbio.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/10/07/sysbio.syu081.short?rss=1

Measuring single cell divisions in human tissues from multi-region sequencing data

Both normal tissue development and cancer growth are driven by a branching process of cell division and mutation accumulation that leads to intra-tissue genetic heterogeneity. However, quantifying somatic evolution in humans remains challenging. Here, we show that multi-sample genomic data from a single time point of normal and cancer tissues contains information on single-cell divisions. We present a new theoretical framework that, applied to whole-genome sequencing data of healthy tissue and cancer, allows inferring the mutation rate and the cell survival/death rate per division. On average, we found that cells accumulate 1.14 mutations per cell division in healthy haematopoiesis and 1.37 mutations per division in brain development. In both tissues, cell survival was maximal during early development. Analysis of 131 biopsies from 16 tumours showed 4 to 100 times increased mutation rates compared to healthy development and substantial inter-patient variation of cell survival/death rates