Symbolic Exact Inference for Discrete Probabilistic Programs

The computational burden of probabilistic inference remains a hurdle for applying probabilistic programming languages to practical problems of interest. In this work, we provide a semantic and algorithmic foundation for efficient exact inference on discrete-valued finite-domain imperative probabilistic programs. We leverage and generalize efficient inference procedures for Bayesian networks, which exploit the structure of the network to decompose the inference task, thereby avoiding full path enumeration. To do this, we first compile probabilistic programs to a symbolic representation. Then we adapt techniques from the probabilistic logic programming and artificial intelligence communities in order to perform inference on the symbolic representation. We formalize our approach, prove it sound, and experimentally validate it against existing exact and approximate inference techniques. We show that our inference approach is competitive with inference procedures specialized for Bayesian networks, thereby expanding the class of probabilistic programs that can be practically analyzed

Cutset Sampling for Bayesian Networks

The paper presents a new sampling methodology for Bayesian networks that samples only a subset of variables and applies exact inference to the rest. Cutset sampling is a network structure-exploiting application of the Rao-Blackwellisation principle to sampling in Bayesian networks. It improves convergence by exploiting memory-based inference algorithms. It can also be viewed as an anytime approximation of the exact cutset-conditioning algorithm developed by Pearl. Cutset sampling can be implemented efficiently when the sampled variables constitute a loop-cutset of the Bayesian network and, more generally, when the induced width of the networks graph conditioned on the observed sampled variables is bounded by a constant w. We demonstrate empirically the benefit of this scheme on a range of benchmarks

Workload-Aware Materialization of Junction Trees

Bayesian networks are popular probabilistic models that capture the conditional dependencies among a set of variables. Inference in Bayesian networks is a fundamental task for answering probabilistic queries over a subset of variables in the data. However, exact inference in Bayesian networks is NP-hard, which has prompted the development of many practical inference methods. In this paper, we focus on improving the performance of the junction-tree algorithm, a well-known method for exact inference in Bayesian networks. In particular, we seek to leverage information in the workload of probabilistic queries to obtain an optimal workload-aware materialization of junction trees, with the aim to accelerate the processing of inference queries. We devise an optimal pseudo-polynomial algorithm to tackle this problem and discuss approximation schemes. Compared to state-of-the-art approaches for efficient processing of inference queries via junction trees, our methods are the first to exploit the information provided in query workloads. Our experimentation on several real-world Bayesian networks confirms the effectiveness of our techniques in speeding-up query processing.Peer reviewe