INDIVISIBLE LABOR, LOTTERIES AND IDIOSYNCRATIC PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS

This paper extends the indivisible-labor model by Hansen (1985) and Rogerson (1988) to include multiple consumers who differ in initial wealth and whose labor productivities are subject to idiosyncratic shocks. In the presence of idiosyncratic uncertainty, the optimal allocations for the individual employment probabilities are at corners: agents work with probability one (zero) when their productivities are high (low). As in Hansen (1985), each agent in our indivisible-labor economy behaves as if her labor choice was divisible and her utility function was linear in hours worked. However, the quasi-linearity of the social preferences, established in Hansen (1985) for the homogeneous-agent case, does not survive after the introduction of idiosyncratic shocks.indivisible labor, lotteries, idiosyncratic shocks, neoclassical growth model

On the aggregate labor supply

Labor supply

Costly capital reallocation and energy use

In time series data, energy use does not change much with energy price changes. However, energy use is responsive to international differences in energy prices in cross-section data across countries. In this paper we consider a model of energy use in which production takes place at individual plants and capital can be used either to directly produce output or to reduce the energy required to run the planto We assume that reallocating capital from one use to another is costly. This turns out to be crucial for the quantitative properties of the model to be in conformity with the low short-mn and high long-run elasticities of energy use seen in data. Furthermore, our model displays variations in capacity utilization that are in line with those observed during the period of major oil price increases.Energy price, Energy use, Costly capital reallocation, Number of plants.

Implementing the 35 Hour Workweek by Means of Overtime Taxation

In this paper we study the implications of taxing overtime work in order to reduce the workweek. To this purpose we study the roles played by team work, commuting costs and idiosyncratic output risk in determining the choice of the workweek. In order to obtain reliable estimates of the consequences of our policy experiment, we calibrate our model economy to the substitutability between overtime and employment using business cycle information. We find that a tax-rate of 12% of overtime wages implements the desired reduction of the workweek from 40 to 35 hours (12.5%). We also find that this tax change increases employment by 7% and reduces output and productivity by 10.2% and 4.2%, respectively. We also study a model economy with cross-sectional variations in the workweek that arise from plant-specific output risk and we find that in this model economy the tax-rates needed to achieve the same workweek reduction are significantly larger. Finally, we find that taxing overtime dampens business cycle fluctuations and that its welfare costs seem to be very largeWorkweek, Overtime, 35 Hours week, Labour Policy

Modeling inventories over the business cycle

We evaluate two leading models of aggregate fluctuations with inventories in general equilibrium: the (S,s) model and the stockout avoidance model. Each is judged by its ability to explain the observed magnitude of inventories in the U.S. economy, alongside other empirical regularities such as the procyclicality of inventory investment and its positive correlation with sales. We find that the (S,s) model is far more consistent with the behavior of aggregate inventories in the postwar U.S. when aggregate fluctuations arise from technology, rather than preference, shocks. The converse holds for the stockout avoidance model. The (S,s) model performs well with respect to the inventory facts and other business cycle regularities. By contrast, the essential risk motive in the stockout avoidance model is insufficient to generate inventory holdings near the data without destroying the model's performance elsewhere, suggesting a fundamental problem in using reduced-form inventory models with stocks rationalized by this motive.Inventories ; Business cycles

Can a Representative-Agent Model Represent a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy?

Accounting for observed fluctuations in aggregate employment, consumption, and real wage using the optimality conditions of a representative household often requires preferences that are incompatible with economic priors (e.g., Mankiw, Rotemberg, and Summers 1985). This discrepancy between the equilibrium model and the aggregate data is often viewed as evidence of the failure of labor-market clearing. We argue that such a conclusion is premature. We construct a model economy where all prices are flexible and all markets clear at all times but household decisions are not readily aggregated because of incomplete capital markets and the indivisible nature of the labor supply. We demonstrate that if we were to explain the model-generated aggregate time series using decisions of a fictitious" stand-in household, such a household is likely to have a non-concave or unstable utility. Our analysis suggests that the representative-agent model often fails to represent an equilibrium outcome of a heterogeneous-agent economy.Representative-agent model, Aggregation, Heterogeneity, Incomplete Markets, Indivisible Labor, GMM Estimation

Can a Representative-Agent Model Represent a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy?

Accounting for observed fluctuations in aggregate employment, consumption, and real wage using the optimality conditions of a representative household requires preferences that are incompatible with economic priors. In order to reconcile theory with data, we construct a model with heterogeneous agents whose decisions are difficult to aggregate because of incomplete capital markets and the indivisible nature of labor supply. If we were to explain the model-generated aggregate time series using decisions of a stand-in household, such a household must have a non-concave or unstable utility as is often found with the aggregate U.S. data.Representative-Agent Model, Heterogeneous Agent, Macroeconomics

Plant level irreversible investment and equilibrium business cycles

This paper evaluates the importance of microeconomic irreversibilities for aggregate dynamics using a general equilibrium approach. To this end a real business cycle model of establishment level dynamics is formulated and analyzed. Investments decisions are subject to irreversibility constraints and consequently, are of the (S,s) variety. This complicates the analysis since the state of the economy is described by an endogenous distribution of agents. The paper develops a computational strategy that makes this class of (S,s) economies fully tractable. Contrary to what the previous literature has suggested, investment irreversibilities are found to have no effects on aggregate business cycle dynamics.Business cycles ; Investments

Aggregate Implications of Indivisible Labor, Incomplete Markets, and Labor Market Frictions

This paper analyzes a model that features frictions, an operative labor supply margin, and incomplete markets. We first provide analytic solutions to a benchmark model that includes indivisible labor and incomplete markets in the absence of trading frictions. We show that the steady state levels of aggregate hours and aggregate capital stock are identical to those obtained in the economy with employment lotteries, while individual employment and asset dynamics can be different. Second, we introduce labor market frictions to the benchmark model. We find that the effect of the frictions on the response of aggregate hours to a permanent tax change is highly non-linear. We also find that there is considerable scope for substitution between "voluntary" and "frictional" nonemployment in some situations.

Interpreting Labor Supply Regressions in a Model of Full and Part-Time Work

We construct a family model of labor supply that features adjustment along both the intensive and extensive margin. Intensive margin adjustment is restricted to two values: full time work and part-time work. Using simulated data from the steady state of the calibrated model, we examine whether standard labor supply regressions can uncover the true value of the intertemporal elasticity of labor supply parameter. We find positive estimated elasticities that are larger for women and that are highly significant, but they bear virtually no relationship to the underlying preference parameters.