Modeling Individual Cyclic Variation in Human Behavior

Cycles are fundamental to human health and behavior. However, modeling cycles in time series data is challenging because in most cases the cycles are not labeled or directly observed and need to be inferred from multidimensional measurements taken over time. Here, we present CyHMMs, a cyclic hidden Markov model method for detecting and modeling cycles in a collection of multidimensional heterogeneous time series data. In contrast to previous cycle modeling methods, CyHMMs deal with a number of challenges encountered in modeling real-world cycles: they can model multivariate data with discrete and continuous dimensions; they explicitly model and are robust to missing data; and they can share information across individuals to model variation both within and between individual time series. Experiments on synthetic and real-world health-tracking data demonstrate that CyHMMs infer cycle lengths more accurately than existing methods, with 58% lower error on simulated data and 63% lower error on real-world data compared to the best-performing baseline. CyHMMs can also perform functions which baselines cannot: they can model the progression of individual features/symptoms over the course of the cycle, identify the most variable features, and cluster individual time series into groups with distinct characteristics. Applying CyHMMs to two real-world health-tracking datasets -- of menstrual cycle symptoms and physical activity tracking data -- yields important insights including which symptoms to expect at each point during the cycle. We also find that people fall into several groups with distinct cycle patterns, and that these groups differ along dimensions not provided to the model. For example, by modeling missing data in the menstrual cycles dataset, we are able to discover a medically relevant group of birth control users even though information on birth control is not given to the model.Comment: Accepted at WWW 201

Discovering Clusters in Motion Time-Series Data

A new approach is proposed for clustering time-series data. The approach can be used to discover groupings of similar object motions that were observed in a video collection. A finite mixture of hidden Markov models (HMMs) is fitted to the motion data using the expectation-maximization (EM) framework. Previous approaches for HMM-based clustering employ a k-means formulation, where each sequence is assigned to only a single HMM. In contrast, the formulation presented in this paper allows each sequence to belong to more than a single HMM with some probability, and the hard decision about the sequence class membership can be deferred until a later time when such a decision is required. Experiments with simulated data demonstrate the benefit of using this EM-based approach when there is more "overlap" in the processes generating the data. Experiments with real data show the promising potential of HMM-based motion clustering in a number of applications.Office of Naval Research (N000140310108, N000140110444); National Science Foundation (IIS-0208876, CAREER Award 0133825

Deep convolutional and LSTM recurrent neural networks for multimodal wearable activity recognition

Human activity recognition (HAR) tasks have traditionally been solved using engineered features obtained by heuristic processes. Current research suggests that deep convolutional neural networks are suited to automate feature extraction from raw sensor inputs. However, human activities are made of complex sequences of motor movements, and capturing this temporal dynamics is fundamental for successful HAR. Based on the recent success of recurrent neural networks for time series domains, we propose a generic deep framework for activity recognition based on convolutional and LSTM recurrent units, which: (i) is suitable for multimodal wearable sensors; (ii) can perform sensor fusion naturally; (iii) does not require expert knowledge in designing features; and (iv) explicitly models the temporal dynamics of feature activations. We evaluate our framework on two datasets, one of which has been used in a public activity recognition challenge. Our results show that our framework outperforms competing deep non-recurrent networks on the challenge dataset by 4% on average; outperforming some of the previous reported results by up to 9%. Our results show that the framework can be applied to homogeneous sensor modalities, but can also fuse multimodal sensors to improve performance. We characterise key architectural hyperparameters’ influence on performance to provide insights about their optimisation

Learning models of plant behavior for anomaly detection and condition monitoring

Providing engineers and asset managers with a too] which can diagnose faults within transformers can greatly assist decision making on such issues as maintenance, performance and safety. However, the onus has always been on personnel to accurately decide how serious a problem is and how urgently maintenance is required. In dealing with the large volumes of data involved, it is possible that faults may not be noticed until serious damage has occurred. This paper proposes the integration of a newly developed anomaly detection technique with an existing diagnosis system. By learning a Hidden Markov Model of healthy transformer behavior, unexpected operation, such as when a fault develops, can be flagged for attention. Faults can then be diagnosed using the existing system and maintenance scheduled as required, all at a much earlier stage than would previously have been possible

Continuous Action Recognition Based on Sequence Alignment

Continuous action recognition is more challenging than isolated recognition because classification and segmentation must be simultaneously carried out. We build on the well known dynamic time warping (DTW) framework and devise a novel visual alignment technique, namely dynamic frame warping (DFW), which performs isolated recognition based on per-frame representation of videos, and on aligning a test sequence with a model sequence. Moreover, we propose two extensions which enable to perform recognition concomitant with segmentation, namely one-pass DFW and two-pass DFW. These two methods have their roots in the domain of continuous recognition of speech and, to the best of our knowledge, their extension to continuous visual action recognition has been overlooked. We test and illustrate the proposed techniques with a recently released dataset (RAVEL) and with two public-domain datasets widely used in action recognition (Hollywood-1 and Hollywood-2). We also compare the performances of the proposed isolated and continuous recognition algorithms with several recently published methods

Surveying human habit modeling and mining techniques in smart spaces

A smart space is an environment, mainly equipped with Internet-of-Things (IoT) technologies, able to provide services to humans, helping them to perform daily tasks by monitoring the space and autonomously executing actions, giving suggestions and sending alarms. Approaches suggested in the literature may differ in terms of required facilities, possible applications, amount of human intervention required, ability to support multiple users at the same time adapting to changing needs. In this paper, we propose a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) that classifies most influential approaches in the area of smart spaces according to a set of dimensions identified by answering a set of research questions. These dimensions allow to choose a specific method or approach according to available sensors, amount of labeled data, need for visual analysis, requirements in terms of enactment and decision-making on the environment. Additionally, the paper identifies a set of challenges to be addressed by future research in the field