Expanding Social Network Modeling Software and Agent Models for Diffusion Processes

In an increasingly digitally interconnected world, the study of social networks and their dynamics is burgeoning. Anthropologically, the ubiquity of online social networks has had striking implications for the condition of large portions of humanity. This technology has facilitated content creation of virtually all sorts, information sharing on an unprecedented scale, and connections and communities among people with similar interests and skills. The first part of my research is a social network evolution and visualization engine. Built on top of existing technologies, my software is designed to provide abstractions from the underlying libraries, drive real-time network evolution based on user-defined parameters, and optionally visualize that evolution at each step of the process. My software provides a low maintenance interface for the creation of networks and update schemes for a wide array of experimental contexts, an engine to drive network evolution, and a visualization platform to provide real-time feedback about different aspects of the network to the researcher, as well as fine-grained debugging tools. We conducted investigations into the opinion dynamics of networks when multiple agent “archetypes” interact together with this platform. We modeled agents’ archetypes with respect to two attributes: their preference over their friends’ opinion profiles, and their tendency to change their opinion over time. We extended the current state of agent modeling in opinion diffusion by providing a unified 2D trajectory/preference space for agents that incorporates most common models in the literature. We investigated six agent archetypes from this space, and examined the behavior of the network as a whole and the individual agents in a variety of contexts. In another branch of work using our software, we developed a network of agents who must carry out both economic and social activities during a pandemic. Agents’ decisions about what actions to take (self-protective measures like masking, social distancing, or waiting to run errands) are based on several factors, including perception of risk (obtained from news reports, social connections, etc.) and economic need. We show with preliminary testing that this platform is able to execute standard pandemic models successfully with the incorporation of the economic and social dimensions, and that this paradigm may provide useful insight into effective agent-level response policies that can be used in concert with other top-down approaches that comprise most of the recent pandemic response research. We have investigated the implications of varying behavior profiles within a network of agents, and how those behavioral compositions affect the overall climate of the network in return, and this software will continue to facilitate similar research into the future

Network Model Selection for Task-Focused Attributed Network Inference

Networks are models representing relationships between entities. Often these relationships are explicitly given, or we must learn a representation which generalizes and predicts observed behavior in underlying individual data (e.g. attributes or labels). Whether given or inferred, choosing the best representation affects subsequent tasks and questions on the network. This work focuses on model selection to evaluate network representations from data, focusing on fundamental predictive tasks on networks. We present a modular methodology using general, interpretable network models, task neighborhood functions found across domains, and several criteria for robust model selection. We demonstrate our methodology on three online user activity datasets and show that network model selection for the appropriate network task vs. an alternate task increases performance by an order of magnitude in our experiments

A Relational Hyperlink Analysis of an Online Social Movement

In this paper we propose relational hyperlink analysis (RHA) as a distinct approach for empirical social science research into hyperlink networks on the World Wide Web. We demonstrate this approach, which employs the ideas and techniques of social network analysis (in particular, exponential random graph modeling), in a study of the hyperlinking behaviors of Australian asylum advocacy groups. We show that compared with the commonly-used hyperlink counts regression approach, relational hyperlink analysis can lead to fundamentally different conclusions about the social processes underpinning hyperlinking behavior. In particular, in trying to understand why social ties are formed, counts regressions may over-estimate the role of actor attributes in the formation of hyperlinks when endogenous, purely structural network effects are not taken into account. Our analysis involves an innovative joint use of two software programs: VOSON, for the automated retrieval and processing of considerable quantities of hyperlink data, and LPNet, for the statistical modeling of social network data. Together, VOSON and LPNet enable new and unique research into social networks in the online world, and our paper highlights the importance of complementary research tools for social science research into the web

Exploring personality-targeted UI design in online social participation systems

We present a theoretical foundation and empirical findings demonstrating the effectiveness of personality-targeted design. Much like a medical treatment applied to a person based on his specific genetic profile, we argue that theory-driven, personality-targeted UI design can be more effective than design applied to the entire population. The empirical exploration focused on two settings, two populations and two personality traits: Study 1 shows that users' extroversion level moderates the relationship between the UI cue of audience size and users' contribution. Study 2 demonstrates that the effectiveness of social anchors in encouraging online contributions depends on users' level of emotional stability. Taken together, the findings demonstrate the potential and robustness of the interactionist approach to UI design. The findings contribute to the HCI community, and in particular to designers of social systems, by providing guidelines to targeted design that can increase online participation. Copyright © 2013 ACM

How Algorithmic Confounding in Recommendation Systems Increases Homogeneity and Decreases Utility

Recommendation systems are ubiquitous and impact many domains; they have the potential to influence product consumption, individuals' perceptions of the world, and life-altering decisions. These systems are often evaluated or trained with data from users already exposed to algorithmic recommendations; this creates a pernicious feedback loop. Using simulations, we demonstrate how using data confounded in this way homogenizes user behavior without increasing utility

Modeling Paying Behavior in Game Social Networks

Online gaming is one of the largest industries on the Internet, generating tens of billions of dollars in revenues annually. One core problem in online game is to find and convert free users into paying customers, which is of great importance for the sustainable development of almost all online games. Although much research has been conducted, there are still several challenges that remain largely unsolved: What are the fundamental factors that trigger the users to pay? How does users? paying behavior influence each other in the game social network? How to design a prediction model to recognize those potential users who are likely to pay? In this paper, employing two large online games as the basis, we study how a user becomes a new paying user in the games. In particular, we examine how users' paying behavior influences each other in the game social network. We study this problem from various sociological perspectives including strong/weak ties, social structural diversity and social influence. Based on the discovered patterns, we propose a learning framework to predict potential new payers. The framework can learn a model using features associated with users and then use the social relationships between users to refine the learned model. We test the proposed framework using nearly 50 billion user activities from two real games. Our experiments show that the proposed framework significantly improves the prediction accuracy by up to 3-11% compared to several alternative methods. The study also unveils several intriguing social phenomena from the data. For example, influence indeed exists among users for the paying behavior. The likelihood of a user becoming a new paying user is 5 times higher than chance when he has 5 paying neighbors of strong tie. We have deployed the proposed algorithm into the game, and the Lift_Ratio has been improved up to 196% compared to the prior strategy

Toward a Model for Fisheries Social Impact Assessment

This paper presents a model for Fisheries Social Impact Assessment (SIA) that lays the groundwork for development of fisheries-focused, quantitative social assessments with a clear conceptual model. The usefulness of current fisheries SIA’s has been called into question by some as incompatible with approaches taken by fisheries biologists and economists when assessing potential effects of management actions. Our model’s approach is closer to the economists’ and biologists’ assessments and is therefore more useful for Fishery Management Council members. The paper was developed by anthropologists initially brought together in 2004 for an SIA Modeling Workshop by the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. Opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policy of the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA