ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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Scaling Limits for Minimal and Random Spanning Trees in Two Dimensions

A general formulation is presented for continuum scaling limits of stochastic spanning trees. A spanning tree is expressed in this limit through a consistent collection of subtrees, which includes a tree for every finite set of endpoints in $\R^d$. Tightness of the distribution, as $\delta \to 0$, is established for the following two-dimensional examples: the uniformly random spanning tree on $\delta \Z^2$, the minimal spanning tree on $\delta \Z^2$ (with random edge lengths), and the Euclidean minimal spanning tree on a Poisson process of points in $\R^2$ with density $\delta^{-2}$. In each case, sample trees are proven to have the following properties, with probability one with respect to any of the limiting measures: i) there is a single route to infinity (as was known for $\delta > 0$), ii) the tree branches are given by curves which are regular in the sense of H\"older continuity, iii) the branches are also rough, in the sense that their Hausdorff dimension exceeds one, iv) there is a random dense subset of $\R^2$, of dimension strictly between one and two, on the complement of which (and only there) the spanning subtrees are unique with continuous dependence on the endpoints, v) branching occurs at countably many points in $\R^2$, and vi) the branching numbers are uniformly bounded. The results include tightness for the loop erased random walk (LERW) in two dimensions. The proofs proceed through the derivation of scale-invariant power bounds on the probabilities of repeated crossings of annuli.Comment: Revised; 54 pages, 6 figures (LaTex

Conjugate Projective Limits

We characterize conjugate nonparametric Bayesian models as projective limits of conjugate, finite-dimensional Bayesian models. In particular, we identify a large class of nonparametric models representable as infinite-dimensional analogues of exponential family distributions and their canonical conjugate priors. This class contains most models studied in the literature, including Dirichlet processes and Gaussian process regression models. To derive these results, we introduce a representation of infinite-dimensional Bayesian models by projective limits of regular conditional probabilities. We show under which conditions the nonparametric model itself, its sufficient statistics, and -- if they exist -- conjugate updates of the posterior are projective limits of their respective finite-dimensional counterparts. We illustrate our results both by application to existing nonparametric models and by construction of a model on infinite permutations.Comment: 49 pages; improved version: revised proof of theorem 3 (results unchanged), discussion added, exposition revise

The Set Structure of Precision: Coherent Probabilities on Pre-Dynkin-Systems

In literature on imprecise probability little attention is paid to the fact that imprecise probabilities are precise on some events. We call these sets system of precision. We show that, under mild assumptions, the system of precision of a lower and upper probability form a so-called (pre-)Dynkin-system. Interestingly, there are several settings, ranging from machine learning on partial data over frequential probability theory to quantum probability theory and decision making under uncertainty, in which a priori the probabilities are only desired to be precise on a specific underlying set system. At the core of all of these settings lies the observation that precise beliefs, probabilities or frequencies on two events do not necessarily imply this precision to hold for the intersection of those events. Here, (pre-)Dynkin-systems have been adopted as systems of precision, too. We show that, under extendability conditions, those pre-Dynkin-systems equipped with probabilities can be embedded into algebras of sets. Surprisingly, the extendability conditions elaborated in a strand of work in quantum physics are equivalent to coherence in the sense of Walley (1991, Statistical reasoning with imprecise probabilities, p. 84). Thus, literature on probabilities on pre-Dynkin-systems gets linked to the literature on imprecise probability. Finally, we spell out a lattice duality which rigorously relates the system of precision to credal sets of probabilities. In particular, we provide a hitherto undescribed, parametrized family of coherent imprecise probabilities