Decision by sampling

We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an attribute’s subjective value is constructed from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons to a sample of attribute values drawn from memory and is its rank within the sample. We assume that the sample reflects both the immediate distribution of attribute values from the current decision’s context and also the background, real-world distribution of attribute values. DbS accounts for concave utility functions; losses looming larger than gains; hyperbolic temporal discounting; and the overestimation of small probabilities and the underestimation of large probabilities

Decision by sampling

We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an attribute's subjective value is constructed from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons to a sample of attribute values drawn from memory and is its rank within the sample. We assume that the sample reflects both the immediate distribution of attribute values from the current decision's context and also the background, real-world distribution of attribute values. DbS accounts for concave utility functions; losses looming larger than gains; hyperbolic temporal discounting; and the overestimation of small probabilities and the underestimation of large probabilities

Learning, Social Intelligence and the Turing Test - why an "out-of-the-box" Turing Machine will not pass the Turing Test

The Turing Test (TT) checks for human intelligence, rather than any putative general intelligence. It involves repeated interaction requiring learning in the form of adaption to the human conversation partner. It is a macro-level post-hoc test in contrast to the definition of a Turing Machine (TM), which is a prior micro-level definition. This raises the question of whether learning is just another computational process, i.e. can be implemented as a TM. Here we argue that learning or adaption is fundamentally different from computation, though it does involve processes that can be seen as computations. To illustrate this difference we compare (a) designing a TM and (b) learning a TM, defining them for the purpose of the argument. We show that there is a well-defined sequence of problems which are not effectively designable but are learnable, in the form of the bounded halting problem. Some characteristics of human intelligence are reviewed including it's: interactive nature, learning abilities, imitative tendencies, linguistic ability and context-dependency. A story that explains some of these is the Social Intelligence Hypothesis. If this is broadly correct, this points to the necessity of a considerable period of acculturation (social learning in context) if an artificial intelligence is to pass the TT. Whilst it is always possible to 'compile' the results of learning into a TM, this would not be a designed TM and would not be able to continually adapt (pass future TTs). We conclude three things, namely that: a purely "designed" TM will never pass the TT; that there is no such thing as a general intelligence since it necessary involves learning; and that learning/adaption and computation should be clearly distinguished.Comment: 10 pages, invited talk at Turing Centenary Conference CiE 2012, special session on "The Turing Test and Thinking Machines

Fast Incremental SVDD Learning Algorithm with the Gaussian Kernel

Support vector data description (SVDD) is a machine learning technique that is used for single-class classification and outlier detection. The idea of SVDD is to find a set of support vectors that defines a boundary around data. When dealing with online or large data, existing batch SVDD methods have to be rerun in each iteration. We propose an incremental learning algorithm for SVDD that uses the Gaussian kernel. This algorithm builds on the observation that all support vectors on the boundary have the same distance to the center of sphere in a higher-dimensional feature space as mapped by the Gaussian kernel function. Each iteration involves only the existing support vectors and the new data point. Moreover, the algorithm is based solely on matrix manipulations; the support vectors and their corresponding Lagrange multiplier $\alpha_i$'s are automatically selected and determined in each iteration. It can be seen that the complexity of our algorithm in each iteration is only $O(k^2)$, where $k$ is the number of support vectors. Experimental results on some real data sets indicate that FISVDD demonstrates significant gains in efficiency with almost no loss in either outlier detection accuracy or objective function value.Comment: 18 pages, 1 table, 4 figure

Encrypted statistical machine learning: new privacy preserving methods

We present two new statistical machine learning methods designed to learn on fully homomorphic encrypted (FHE) data. The introduction of FHE schemes following Gentry (2009) opens up the prospect of privacy preserving statistical machine learning analysis and modelling of encrypted data without compromising security constraints. We propose tailored algorithms for applying extremely random forests, involving a new cryptographic stochastic fraction estimator, and na\"{i}ve Bayes, involving a semi-parametric model for the class decision boundary, and show how they can be used to learn and predict from encrypted data. We demonstrate that these techniques perform competitively on a variety of classification data sets and provide detailed information about the computational practicalities of these and other FHE methods.Comment: 39 page

Probabilistic change detection and visualization methods for the assessment of temporal stability in biomedical data quality

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/DOI 10.1007/s10618-014-0378-6. Published online.Knowledge discovery on biomedical data can be based on on-line, data-stream analyses, or using retrospective, timestamped, off-line datasets. In both cases, changes in the processes that generate data or in their quality features through time may hinder either the knowledge discovery process or the generalization of past knowledge. These problems can be seen as a lack of data temporal stability. This work establishes the temporal stability as a data quality dimension and proposes new methods for its assessment based on a probabilistic framework. Concretely, methods are proposed for (1) monitoring changes, and (2) characterizing changes, trends and detecting temporal subgroups. First, a probabilistic change detection algorithm is proposed based on the Statistical Process Control of the posterior Beta distribution of the Jensen–Shannon distance, with a memoryless forgetting mechanism. This algorithm (PDF-SPC) classifies the degree of current change in three states: In-Control, Warning, and Out-of-Control. Second, a novel method is proposed to visualize and characterize the temporal changes of data based on the projection of a non-parametric information-geometric statistical manifold of time windows. This projection facilitates the exploration of temporal trends using the proposed IGT-plot and, by means of unsupervised learning methods, discovering conceptually-related temporal subgroups. Methods are evaluated using real and simulated data based on the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) dataset.The work by C Saez has been supported by an Erasmus Lifelong Learning Programme 2013 Grant. This work has been supported by own IBIME funds. 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Gaussian Artmap: A Neural Network for Fast Incremental Learning of Noisy Multidimensional Maps

A new neural network architecture for incremental supervised learning of analalog multidimensional maps is introduced. The architecture, called Gaussian ARTMAP, is a synthesis of a Gaussian classifier and an Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) neural network, achieved by defining the ART choice function as the discriminant function of a Gaussian classifer with separable distributions, and the ART match function as the same, but with the a priori probabilities of the distributions discounted. While Gaussian ARTMAP retains the attractive parallel computing and fast learning properties of fuzzy ARTMAP, it learns a more efficient internal representation of a mapping while being more resistant to noise than fuzzy ARTMAP on a number of benchmark databases. Several simulations are presented which demonstrate that Gaussian ARTMAP consistently obtains a better trade-off of classification rate to number of categories than fuzzy ARTMAP. Results on a vowel classiflcation problem are also presented which demonstrate that Gaussian ARTMAP outperforms many other classifiers.National Science Foundation (IRI 90-00530); Office of Naval Research (N00014-92-J-4015, 40014-91-J-4100