Applied Computational Intelligence for finance and economics

This article introduces some relevant research works on computational intelligence applied to finance and economics. The objective is to offer an appropriate context and a starting point for those who are new to computational intelligence in finance and economics and to give an overview of the most recent works. A classification with five different main areas is presented. Those areas are related with different applications of the most modern computational intelligence techniques showing a new perspective for approaching finance and economics problems. Each research area is described with several works and applications. Finally, a review of the research works selected for this special issue is given.Publicad

Automatic synthesis of fuzzy systems: An evolutionary overview with a genetic programming perspective

Studies in Evolutionary Fuzzy Systems (EFSs) began in the 90s and have experienced a fast development since then, with applications to areas such as pattern recognition, curve‐fitting and regression, forecasting and control. An EFS results from the combination of a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). This relationship can be established for multiple purposes: fine‐tuning of FIS's parameters, selection of fuzzy rules, learning a rule base or membership functions from scratch, and so forth. Each facet of this relationship creates a strand in the literature, as membership function fine‐tuning, fuzzy rule‐based learning, and so forth and the purpose here is to outline some of what has been done in each aspect. Special focus is given to Genetic Programming‐based EFSs by providing a taxonomy of the main architectures available, as well as by pointing out the gaps that still prevail in the literature. The concluding remarks address some further topics of current research and trends, such as interpretability analysis, multiobjective optimization, and synthesis of a FIS through Evolving methods

Self learning neuro-fuzzy modeling using hybrid genetic probabilistic approach for engine air/fuel ratio prediction

Machine Learning is concerned in constructing models which can learn and make predictions based on data. Rule extraction from real world data that are usually tainted with noise, ambiguity, and uncertainty, automatically requires feature selection. Neuro-Fuzzy system (NFS) which is known with its prediction performance has the difficulty in determining the proper number of rules and the number of membership functions for each rule. An enhanced hybrid Genetic Algorithm based Fuzzy Bayesian classifier (GA-FBC) was proposed to help the NFS in the rule extraction. Feature selection was performed in the rule level overcoming the problems of the FBC which depends on the frequency of the features leading to ignore the patterns of small classes. As dealing with a real world problem such as the Air/Fuel Ratio (AFR) prediction, a multi-objective problem is adopted. The GA-FBC uses mutual information entropy, which considers the relevance between feature attributes and class attributes. A fitness function is proposed to deal with multi-objective problem without weight using a new composition method. The model was compared to other learning algorithms for NFS such as Fuzzy c-means (FCM) and grid partition algorithm. Predictive accuracy and the complexity of the Fuzzy Rule Base System (FRBS) including number of rules and number of terms in each rule were taken as terms of evaluation. It was also compared to the original GA-FBC depending on the frequency not on Mutual Information (MI). Experimental results using Air/Fuel Ratio (AFR) data sets show that the new model participates in decreasing the average number of attributes in the rule and sometimes in increasing the average performance compared to other models. This work facilitates in achieving a self-generating FRBS from real data. The GA-FBC can be used as a new direction in machine learning research. This research contributes in controlling automobile emissions in helping the reduction of one of the most causes of pollution to produce greener environment

Big data analytics:Computational intelligence techniques and application areas

Big Data has significant impact in developing functional smart cities and supporting modern societies. In this paper, we investigate the importance of Big Data in modern life and economy, and discuss challenges arising from Big Data utilization. Different computational intelligence techniques have been considered as tools for Big Data analytics. We also explore the powerful combination of Big Data and Computational Intelligence (CI) and identify a number of areas, where novel applications in real world smart city problems can be developed by utilizing these powerful tools and techniques. We present a case study for intelligent transportation in the context of a smart city, and a novel data modelling methodology based on a biologically inspired universal generative modelling approach called Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal State Machine (HSTSM). We further discuss various implications of policy, protection, valuation and commercialization related to Big Data, its applications and deployment

A Spatial Agent-Based Model of N-Person Prisoner's Dilemma Cooperation in a Socio-Geographic Community

The purpose of this paper is to present a spatial agent-based model of N-person prisoner's dilemma that is designed to simulate the collective communication and cooperation within a socio-geographic community. Based on a tight coupling of REPAST and a vector Geographic Information System, the model simulates the emergence of cooperation from the mobility behaviors and interaction strategies of citizen agents. To approximate human behavior, the agents are set as stochastic learning automata with Pavlovian personalities and attitudes. A review of the theory of the standard prisoner's dilemma, the iterated prisoner's dilemma, and the N-person prisoner's dilemma is given as well as an overview of the generic architecture of the agent-based model. The capabilities of the spatial N-person prisoner's dilemma component are demonstrated with several scenario simulation runs for varied initial cooperation percentages and mobility dynamics. Experimental results revealed that agent mobility and context preservation bring qualitatively different effects to the evolution of cooperative behavior in an analyzed spatial environment.Agent Based Modeling, Cooperation, Prisoners Dilemma, Spatial Interaction Model, Spatially Structured Social Dilemma, Geographic Information Systems

A Multi-Agent Architecture for the Design of Hierarchical Interval Type-2 Beta Fuzzy System

This paper presents a new methodology for building and evolving hierarchical fuzzy systems. For the system design, a tree-based encoding method is adopted to hierarchically link low dimensional fuzzy systems. Such tree structural representation has by nature a flexible design offering more adjustable and modifiable structures. The proposed hierarchical structure employs a type-2 beta fuzzy system to cope with the faced uncertainties, and the resulting system is called the Hierarchical Interval Type-2 Beta Fuzzy System (HT2BFS). For the system optimization, two main tasks of structure learning and parameter tuning are applied. The structure learning phase aims to evolve and learn the structures of a population of HT2BFS in a multiobjective context taking into account the optimization of both the accuracy and the interpretability metrics. The parameter tuning phase is applied to refine and adjust the parameters of the system. To accomplish these two tasks in the most optimal and faster way, we further employ a multi-agent architecture to provide both a distributed and a cooperative management of the optimization tasks. Agents are divided into two different types based on their functions: a structure agent and a parameter agent. The main function of the structure agent is to perform a multi-objective evolutionary structure learning step by means of the Multi-Objective Immune Programming algorithm (MOIP). The parameter agents have the function of managing different hierarchical structures simultaneously to refine their parameters by means of the Hybrid Harmony Search algorithm (HHS). In this architecture, agents use cooperation and communication concepts to create high-performance HT2BFSs. The performance of the proposed system is evaluated by several comparisons with various state of art approaches on noise-free and noisy time series prediction data sets and regression problems. The results clearly demonstrate a great improvement in the accuracy rate, the convergence speed and the number of used rules as compared with other existing approaches