Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease

A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, whenand to whom to apply an intervention.We develop a framework for using data to informthese decisionsin realtime.We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, oneper treatment period, that map up-to-date information on the spread of an infectious diseaseto a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategyoptimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographicfootprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategyfor an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interferencebetween locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number oflocations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak.We derive a Bayesian on-line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combinessimulation–optimization with Thompson sampling.The estimator proposed performs favourablyin simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread ofwhite nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations inNorth America

Reinforcement learning in ophthalmology: potential applications and challenges to implementation

Reinforcement learning is a subtype of machine learning in which a virtual agent, functioning within a set of predefined rules, aims to maximise a specified outcome or reward. This agent can consider multiple variables and many parallel actions at once to optimise its reward, thereby solving complex, sequential problems. Clinical decision making requires physicians to optimise patient outcomes within a set practice framework and, thus, presents considerable opportunity for the implementation of reinforcement learning-driven solutions. We provide an overview of reinforcement learning, and focus on potential applications within ophthalmology. We also explore the challenges associated with development and implementation of reinforcement learning solutions and discuss possible approaches to address them

Causal Reinforcement Learning: A Survey

Reinforcement learning is an essential paradigm for solving sequential decision problems under uncertainty. Despite many remarkable achievements in recent decades, applying reinforcement learning methods in the real world remains challenging. One of the main obstacles is that reinforcement learning agents lack a fundamental understanding of the world and must therefore learn from scratch through numerous trial-and-error interactions. They may also face challenges in providing explanations for their decisions and generalizing the acquired knowledge. Causality, however, offers a notable advantage as it can formalize knowledge in a systematic manner and leverage invariance for effective knowledge transfer. This has led to the emergence of causal reinforcement learning, a subfield of reinforcement learning that seeks to enhance existing algorithms by incorporating causal relationships into the learning process. In this survey, we comprehensively review the literature on causal reinforcement learning. We first introduce the basic concepts of causality and reinforcement learning, and then explain how causality can address core challenges in non-causal reinforcement learning. We categorize and systematically review existing causal reinforcement learning approaches based on their target problems and methodologies. Finally, we outline open issues and future directions in this emerging field.Comment: 48 pages, 10 figure

Reinforcement learning in large, structured action spaces: A simulation study of decision support for spinal cord injury rehabilitation

Reinforcement learning (RL) has helped improve decision-making in several applications. However, applying traditional RL is challenging in some applications, such as rehabilitation of people with a spinal cord injury (SCI). Among other factors, using RL in this domain is difficult because there are many possible treatments (i.e., large action space) and few patients (i.e., limited training data). Treatments for SCIs have natural groupings, so we propose two approaches to grouping treatments so that an RL agent can learn effectively from limited data. One relies on domain knowledge of SCI rehabilitation and the other learns similarities among treatments using an embedding technique. We then use Fitted Q Iteration to train an agent that learns optimal treatments. Through a simulation study designed to reflect the properties of SCI rehabilitation, we find that both methods can help improve the treatment decisions of physiotherapists, but the approach based on domain knowledge offers better performance. Our findings provide a "proof of concept" that RL can be used to help improve the treatment of those with an SCI and indicates that continued efforts to gather data and apply RL to this domain are worthwhile.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figure

A reinforcement learning model to inform optimal decision paths for HIV elimination

The \u27Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE)\u27 national plan aims to reduce annual HIV incidence in the United States from 38,000 in 2015 to 9300 by 2025 and 3300 by 2030. Diagnosis and treatment are two most effective interventions, and thus, identifying corresponding optimal combinations of testing and retention-in-care rates would help inform implementation of relevant programs. Considering the dynamic and stochastic complexity of the disease and the time dynamics of decision-making, solving for optimal combinations using commonly used methods of parametric optimization or exhaustive evaluation of pre-selected options are infeasible. Reinforcement learning (RL), an artificial intelligence method, is ideal; however, training RL algorithms and ensuring convergence to optimality are computationally challenging for large-scale stochastic problems. We evaluate its feasibility in the context of the EHE goal. We trained an RL algorithm to identify a \u27sequence\u27 of combinations of HIV-testing and retention-in-care rates at 5-year intervals over 2015-2070 that optimally leads towards HIV elimination. We defined optimality as a sequence that maximizes quality-adjusted-life-years lived and minimizes HIV-testing and care-and-treatment costs. We show that solving for testing and retention-in-care rates through appropriate reformulation using proxy decision-metrics overcomes the computational challenges of RL. We used a stochastic agent-based simulation to train the RL algorithm. As there is variability in support-programs needed to address barriers to care-access, we evaluated the sensitivity of optimal decisions to three cost-functions. The model suggests to scale-up retention-in-care programs to achieve and maintain high annual retention-rates while initiating with a high testing-frequency but relaxing it over a 10-year period as incidence decreases. Results were mainly robust to the uncertainty in costs. However, testing and retention-in-care alone did not achieve the 2030 EHE targets, suggesting the need for additional interventions. The results from the model demonstrated convergence. RL is suitable for evaluating phased public health decisions for infectious disease control