Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration for Survivability

Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration for Survivability is a system design and analysis methodology that incorporates survivability considerations into the tradespace exploration process (i.e., a solution-generating and decision-making framework that applies decision theory to model-based design). During the concept generation phase of tradespace exploration, the methodology applies seventeen empirically validated survivability design principles spanning susceptibility reduction, vulnerability reduction, and resilience enhancement. During subsequent concept evaluation, the methodology adds value-based survivability metrics to traditional architectural evaluation criteria of mission utility and lifecycle cost. Applied to a satellite radar mission, the methodology allowed operational survivability to be statistically evaluated across representative distributions of naturally occurring disturbances in the space environment and for survivability to be incorporated as a decision factor earlier in the design process. Constellations in the illustrative example are shown to be the most survivable, mitigating disturbances architecturally, rather than through additive features.Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative (SEAri))Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program on Emerging Technologie

Multi-attributes tradespace exploration for survivability: Application to satellite radar

Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE) for Survivability is introduced as a general methodology for survivability analysis and demonstrated through an application to a satellite radar system. MATE for Survivability applies decision theory to the parametric modeling of thousands of design alternatives across representative distributions of disturbance environments. Survivability considerations are incorporated into the existing MATE process (i.e., a solution-generating and decision-making framework that applies decision theory to model-based design) by applying empirically-validated survivability design principles and value-based survivability metrics to concept generation and concept evaluation activities, respectively. MATE for Survivability consists of eight iterative phases: (1) define system value proposition, (2) generate concepts, (3) specify disturbances, (4) apply survivability principles, (5) model baseline system performance, (6) model impact of disturbances on dynamic system performance, (7) apply survivability metrics, and (8) select designs for further analysis. The application of MATE for Survivability to satellite radar demonstrates the importance of incorporating survivability considerations into conceptual design for identifying inherently survivable architectures that efficiently balance competing performance metrics of lifecycle cost, mission utility, and operational survivability

Security analysis and modelling framework for critical infrastructure systems

The provision and delivery of many of the services that modern society enjoys are the result of ubiquitous critical infrastructure systems that permeate across many sectors of the Australian community. Moreover, the integration of technological enhancements and networking interconnections between critical infrastructure systems has heightened system interdependence, availability and resilience, including the efficient delivery of services to consumers within Australia\u27s industrialised society. This research delivers a system security analysis and system modelling framework tool based on an associated conceptual methodology as the basis for assessing security and conceptually modelling a critical infrastructure system incident. The intent to identify potential system security issues and gain operational insights that will contribute to improving system resilience, contingency planning development applicable to disaster recovery and ameliorating incident management responses for Australian critical infrastructure system incidents.<br /

Optimizing Engagement Simulations Through the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM) Software

The ability to effectively model and simulate military missions holds the potential to save lives, money, and resources for the United States. The Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM) software is a tool used to rapidly simulate and model new technologies and mission level scenarios. In this thesis, our objective is to integrate a closed loop optimization routine with AFSIM to identify an effective objective function to assess optimal inputs for engagement scenarios. Given the many factors which impact a mission level engagement, we developed a tool which interfaces with AFSIM to observe the effects from multiple inputs in an engagement scenario. Our tool operates under the assumption that simulation results have met an acceptable convergence threshold. The objective function evaluates the effectiveness and associated cost with a scenario using a genetic algorithm and a particle swarm optimization algorithm. From this, a statistical analysis was performed to assess risk from the distribution of effectiveness and cost at each point. The method allows an optimal set of inputs to be selected for a desired result from the selected engagement scenario.No embargoAcademic Major: Mechanical Engineerin

TRADEOFF ANALYSIS OF BACKUP POWER GENERATION SOLUTIONS FOR MILITARY BASES

Energy security is becoming increasingly important as the DOD relies on energy to build and project combat power from military installations. Installation energy managers currently ensure uninterrupted power to mission-critical facilities through emergency stand-alone diesel generators. Research has recently indicated that networks of smaller diesel generators offer greater energy security benefits than a network of a few large diesel generators. However, existing research has not compared or analyzed the cost and resilience between the two strategies. This capstone examines the cost and resilience of centralized and decentralized power architectures by developing a general methodology to capture comprehensive life-cycle costs and metrics. It examines resilience for various configurations of networked diesel generators. Installation power managers can apply this method to quantitatively compare life-cycle cost and resilience of emergency diesel generator solutions to improve energy security within the unique constraints of an installation. The capstone then applied this methodology to the aging diesel generator power plant at Naval Station, Rota, Spain, which demonstrated that decentralized architecture was the most cost-effective strategy for resilience. Finally, the capstone presents these findings and general methodology for future application.Navy Shore Energy Technology Transition and Integration (NSETTI), Naval Facilities (NAVFAC) Engineering and Expeditionary Warfare Center (EXWC), Port Hueneme, CA, 93043Captain, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyCaptain, United States ArmyCaptain, United States ArmyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

SPS phase control system performance via analytical simulation

A solar power satellite transmission system which incorporates automatic beam forming, steering, and phase control is discussed. The phase control concept centers around the notation of an active retrodirective phased array as a means of pointing the beam to the appropriate spot on Earth. The transmitting antenna (spacetenna) directs the high power beam so that it focuses on the ground-based receiving antenna (rectenna). A combination of analysis and computerized simulation was conducted to determine the far field performance of the reference distribution system, and the beam forming and microwave power generating systems

Susceptibility Modeling and Mission Flight Route Optimization in a Low Threat, Combat Environment

Movement and transportation systems are a primary topic in the study of humans and their relationship with the environment. Only a few modes of transportation allow for nearly full freedom of movement that is unconstrained by rigid nodes and networks. Individual human travel (walking, climbing, swimming, etc.) is one example while rotorcraft travel is another. Although other criteria constrain movement, independence from a network allows for a unique examination of human spatial decision-making and choice behavior. This research analyzes helicopter flight route planning in a low threat combat environment with respect to geography. The particular problem addressed, which ultimately concerns the quantitative representation and mapping of helicopter susceptibility in a low threat, combat environment, is assisted by a Geographic Information System (GIS). Prior susceptibility research on helicopters is combined with the spatial analytical functions of a GIS to cartographically model three dimensional flight corridors and routes across four separate areas. GIS optimized flight routing plans that minimize helicopter susceptibility (maximize capability to avoid threats) are then compared to the conventional routes produced by human flight route planners using existing techniques. Findings indicate that although the GIS routes reduce susceptibility costs, they concomitantly decrease route diversity. There was no significant evidence that experience, expertise, landscape familiarity, age, or the amount of time taken to plan had any effect on the spatial character of the routes. Several spatial similarities between conventionally planned routes and GIS optimized routes were revealed that expose potential perceptual limitations imposed by the conventional flight planning paradigm. Implementation of geospatial technology could help eliminate these restrictions

Revisiting the Question: Are Systems of Systems just (traditional) Systems or are they a new class of Systems?

This paper revisits a question asked and debated widely over the past decade: are Systems of Systems (SoS) just traditional systems or are they a new class of systems? Many have argued that SoS are a new class of systems, but little research has been available to provide evidence of this. In this paper we share highlights of recent research to show SoS not only have a different structure than systems and thus need to be engineered differently, but also may possess different attributes for beyond first use properties (the “illities”) such as flexibility and adaptability as compared to systems. By examining historical examples and by using a maritime security SoS as a research test bed, this paper shows that the “ility” called survivability had some design strategies that were directly mapped from systems and also allowed new strategies that only made sense for a SoS (e.g. vigilance). The paper also shows that some design strategies have a different implementation and meaning (e.g. margin) at the level of a system compared to SoS level. We conclude the answer to the question “Are SoS’s just systems?” is both yes and no. They are manifestly systems but possess properties not found in traditional systems. This is shown to true of the meta-property of survivability as applied against a directed SoS

Design for Support in the Initial Design of Naval Combatants

The decline of defence budgets coupled with the escalation of warship procurement costs have significantly contributed to fleet downsizing in most major western navies despite little reduction in overall commitments, resulting in extra capability and reliability required per ship. Moreover, the tendency of governments to focus on short-term strategies and expenditure has meant that those aspects of naval ship design that may be difficult to quantify, such as supportability, are often treated as secondary issues and allocated insufficient attention in Early Stage Design. To tackle this, innovation in both the design process and the development of individual ship designs is necessary, especially at the crucial early design stages. Novelty can be achieved thanks to major developments in computer technology and in adopting an architecturally-orientated approach to early stage ship design. The existing technical solutions aimed at addressing supportability largely depend on highly detailed ship design information, thus fail to enable rational supportability assessments in the Concept Phase. This research therefore aimed at addressing the lack of a quantitative supportability evaluation approach applicable to early stage naval ship design. Utilising Decision Analysis, Effectiveness Analysis, and Analytic Hierarchy Process, the proposed approach tackled the difficulty of quantifying certain aspects of supportability in initial ship design and provided a framework to address the issue of inconsistent and often conflicting preferences of decision makers. Since the ship’s supportability is considered to be significantly affected by its configuration, the proposed approach utilised the advantages of an architecturally-orientated early stage ship design approach and a new concept design tool developed at University College London. The new tool was used to develop concept level designs of a frigate-sized combatant and a number of variations of it, namely configurational rearrangement with enhancement of certain supportably features, and an alternative ship design style. The design cases were then used to demonstrate the proposed evaluation approach. The overall aim of proposing a quantitative supportability evaluation approach applicable to concept naval ship design was achieved, although several issues and limitations emerged during both the development as well as the implementation of the approach. Through identification of the research limitations, areas for future work aimed at improving the proposal have been proposed