Incident prediction: a statistical approach to dynamic probability estimation : application to a test site in Barcelona

DR 2002/08 Departament d'EIO - Research Supported by PRIME European ProjectReal-time models for estimating incident probabilities (EIP models) are innovative methods for predicting the potential occurrence of incidents and improving the effectiveness of incident management policies devoted to increasing road safety. EIP models imbedded in traffic management systems can lead to the development of control strategies for reducing the likelihood of incidents before they occur. This paper presents and discusses the design, implementation and off-line testing of an EIP model in the PRIME (Prediction of Congestion and Incidents in Real Time for Intelligent Incident Management and Emergency Traffic Management) Project of the “Information Societies Technology Programme” of the EU. A statistically-oriented approach based on Generalized Linear Regression models with polytomous responses is developed: geometry, traffic and weather conditions are taken as explanatory variables at a road section level and a binary variable related to incident occurrence or otherwise for the prevailing conditions is taken as a response variable on the first level of decision. Once the probability of a generic incident has been predicted, the lower level models in the selected hierarchical approach will predict the probabilities of incidents in a set of categories defined at a design level. The EIP model has been incorporated in the AIMSUN microscopic simulation environment (developed by TSS ). AIMSUN is able to emulate a traffic management system, since it simulates traffic evolution including the replication of observed incidents and incorporates different modules of incident and traffic management in such a way that the impact of traffic management strategies can be evaluated by simulation. A test site in Barcelona, located in a 15-km portion of the Ronda de Dalt ring road provided the data for calibrating and testing the EIP module. The selected site is equipped with 12 CCTV cameras for traffic monitoring, 18 local controllers, 12 detection stations, 10 variable message panels and 13 variable speed signals. Detection stations provide measures of different traffic variables in lane detail every minute.Preprin

Analyzing Benefits of Connected Vehicle Technologies During Incidents on Freeways and Diversion Strategies Implementation: A Microsimulation-Based Case Study of Florida\u27s Turnpike

The full utilization of connected vehicles (CVs) is highly anticipated to become a reality soon. As CVs become increasingly prevalent in our roadway network, connected technologies have enormous potential to improve safety. This study conducted a microscopic simulation to quantify the benefits of CVs in improving freeway safety along a 7.8-mile section on Florida’s Turnpike (SR-91) system. The simulation incorporated driver compliance behavior in a CV environment. The simulation was implemented via an existing VISSIM network model partially developed by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). In addition, the study analyzed how CVs would assist in detour operations as a strategy for congestion management during traffic incidents on freeways. The Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM) software was used to evaluate the benefits of CVs based on time-to-collision (TTC) as the performance measure. The TTC was evaluated at various CV market penetration rates (MPRs) of 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%. The results showed a decreasing trend of conflicts for morning and evening peak hours, especially from 25% to 100% CV MPRs. The benefits were statistically significant at a 95% confidence level for high CV MPR (above 25%). Upon an incident on the freeway, at higher CV MPRs simulations, the detour strategy seemed to reduce travel time on the freeway. Besides, the detour strategy was more helpful when the incident clearance duration lasted more than 30 minutes. Findings from this study may help the incident management process prepare for detour strategies based on the severity of the incident at hand and could explain the importance of CVs in supporting warning and management strategies for drivers to improve safety on freeways. Keywords: Conflicts, Connected Vehicles, Driver Compliance Rate, Detour, Incident Modeling, Safety Surrogate Measure

Network Modeling of Hurricane Evacuation Using Data-Driven Demand and Incident-Induced Capacity Loss Models

The development of a hurricane evacuation simulation model is a crucial task in emergency management and planning. Two major issues affect the reliability of an evacuation model: one is estimations of evacuation traffic based on socioeconomic characteristics, and the other is capacity change and its influence on evacuation outcome due to traffic incidents in the context of hurricanes. Both issues can impact the effectiveness of emergency planning in terms of evacuation order issuance, and evacuation route planning. The proposed research aims to investigate the demand and supply modeling in the context of hurricane evacuations. This methodology created three scenarios for the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area, including one base and two evacuation scenarios with different levels of traffic demand and capacity uncertainty. Observed volume data prior to Hurricane Sandy is collected to model the response curve of the model, and the empirical incident data under actual evacuation conditions are analyzed and modeled. Then, the modeled incidents are incorporated into the planning model modified for evacuation. Simulation results are sampled and compared with observed sensor-based travel times as well as O-D-based trip times of NYC taxi data. The results show that the introduction of incident frequency and duration models can significantly improve the performance of the evacuation model. The results of this approach imply the importance of traffic incident consideration for hurricane evacuation simulation

The Efficacy of Simulation as a Pedagogy in Facilitating Pre-Service Teachers’ Learning About Emotional Self-Regulation and its Relevance to the Teaching Profession

This study was undertaken in response to the imperative of teacher education courses incorporating National Professional Standards for Teachers, in particular Standard 7, which deals with the professional engagement of teachers (AITSL, 2011). It aimed to evaluate the efficacy of simulation and active recall as a learner-centred pedagogy in facilitating pre-service teachers’ learning about their capacity to self-regulate emotionally and its relevance to the profession. A simulated ‘critical incident’ was used in a lecture to guide students (n=106) to analyse and understand their emotional responses to an altercation between the lecturer and a colleague. The evaluation involved both quantitative and qualitative data collection. The study generated six useful insights associated with the efficacy of simulation pedagogy and revealed convincingly that this pedagogy can engage students actively in learning about the importance of emotional self-regulation in relation to their professional role as a teacher

Large emergency-response exercises: qualitative characteristics - a survey

Exercises, drills, or simulations are widely used, by governments, agencies and commercial organizations, to simulate serious incidents and train staff how to respond to them. International cooperation has led to increasingly large-scale exercises, often involving hundreds or even thousands of participants in many locations. The difference between ‘large’ and ‘small’ exercises is more than one of size: (a) Large exercises are more ‘experiential’ and more likely to undermine any model of reality that single organizations may create; (b) they create a ‘play space’ in which organizations and individuals act out their own needs and identifications, and a ritual with strong social implications; (c) group-analytic psychotherapy suggests that the emotions aroused in a large group may be stronger and more difficult to control. Feelings are an unacknowledged major factor in the success or failure of exercises; (d) successful large exercises help improve the nature of trust between individuals and the organizations they represent, changing it from a situational trust to a personal trust; (e) it is more difficult to learn from large exercises or to apply the lessons identified; (f) however, large exercises can help develop organizations and individuals. Exercises (and simulation in general) need to be approached from a broader multidisciplinary direction if their full potential is to be realized

Variable speed limits: conceptual design for Queensland practice

Variable Speed Limits (VSL) is an Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) control tool which can enhance traffic safety and which has the potential to contribute to traffic efficiency. Queensland's motorways experience a large volume of commuter traffic in peak periods, leading to heavy recurrent congestion and a high frequency of incidents. Consequently, Queensland's Department of Transport and Main Roads have considered deploying VSL to improve safety and efficiency. This paper identifies three types of VSL and three applicable conditions for activating VSL on for Queensland motorways: high flow, queuing and adverse weather. The design objectives and methodology for each condition are analysed, and micro-simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of VSL