Circulant singular spectrum analysis to monitor the state of the economy in real time

Real-time monitoring of the economy is based on activity indicators that show regular patterns such as trends, seasonality and business cycles. However, parametric and non-parametric methods for signal extraction produce revisions at the end of the sample, and the arrival of new data makes it difficult to assess the state of the economy. In this paper, we compare two signal extraction procedures: Circulant Singular Spectral Analysis, CiSSA, a non-parametric technique in which we can extract components associated with desired frequencies, and a parametric method based on ARIMA modelling. Through a set of simulations, we show that the magnitude of the revisions produced by CiSSA converges to zero quicker, and it is smaller than that of the alternative procedure.This research was funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, grant numbers PID2019-107161GB-C32 and PID2019-108079GB-C22/AIE/10.13039/501100011033

Circulant singular spectrum analysis: A new automated procedure for signal extraction

Sometimes, it is of interest to single out the fluctuations associated to a given frequency. We propose a new variant of SSA, Circulant SSA (CiSSA), that allows to extract the signal associated to any frequency specified beforehand. This is a novelty when compared with other SSA procedures that need to identify ex-post the frequencies associated to the extracted signals. We prove that CiSSA is asymptotically equivalent to these alternative procedures although with the advantage of avoiding the need of the subsequent frequency identification. We check its good performance and compare it to alternative SSA methods through several simulations for linear and nonlinear time series. We also prove its validity in the nonstationary case. We apply CiSSA in two different fields to show how it works with real data and find that it behaves successfully in both applications. Finally, we compare the performance of CiSSA with other state of the art techniques used for nonlinear and nonstationary signals with amplitude and frequency varying in timeFinancial support from the Spanish government, contract grants MINECO/FEDER ECO2015-70331-C2-1-R, ECO2015-66593-P, ECO2016-76818-C3-3-P, PID2019-107161GB-C32 and PID2019-108079GB-C22 is acknowledge

Circulant singular spectrum analysis: a new automated procedure for signal extraction

Sometimes, it is of interest to single out the fluctuations associated to a given frequency. We propose a new variant of SSA, Circulant SSA (CiSSA), that allows to extract the signal associated to any frequency specified beforehand. This is a novelty when compared with other SSA procedures that need to iden- tify ex-post the frequencies associated to the extracted signals. We prove that CiSSA is asymptotically equivalent to these alternative procedures although with the advantage of avoiding the need of the subse- quent frequency identification. We check its good performance and compare it to alternative SSA methods through several simulations for linear and nonlinear time series. We also prove its validity in the nonsta- tionary case. We apply CiSSA in two different fields to show how it works with real data and find that it behaves successfully in both applications. Finally, we compare the performance of CiSSA with other state of the art techniques used for nonlinear and nonstationary signals with amplitude and frequency varying in time.MINECO/FEDE