A Stochastic Model of Plausibility in Live-Virtual-Constructive Environments

Distributed live-virtual-constructive simulation promises a number of benefits for the test and evaluation community, including reduced costs, access to simulations of limited availability assets, the ability to conduct large-scale multi-service test events, and recapitalization of existing simulation investments. However, geographically distributed systems are subject to fundamental state consistency limitations that make assessing the data quality of live-virtual-constructive experiments difficult. This research presents a data quality model based on the notion of plausible interaction outcomes. This model explicitly accounts for the lack of absolute state consistency in distributed real-time systems and offers system designers a means of estimating data quality and fitness for purpose. Experiments with World of Warcraft player trace data validate the plausibility model and exceedance probability estimates. Additional experiments with synthetic data illustrate the model\u27s use in ensuring fitness for purpose of live-virtual-constructive simulations and estimating the quality of data obtained from live-virtual-constructive experiments

A Design Methodology to Optimize Supply Chain Network Performance

Organizations are constantly looking for new ways to reduce costs while still providing high customer service levels to face stringent competitive environments and the ever- increasing market globalization. An alternative these organizations can pursue to respond to these challenges and to gain a competitive differentiation is to optimize their supply chain network (SCN). This research aims to develop an effective SCN design strategy to locate facilities (i.e., plants and distribution centers) and to balance the allocation of customers to these facilities to satisfy capacity limitations and customer demands with minimum total cost and maximum level of service. It is anticipated that the results of this research will improve the strategic decision making of a manufacturing firm when locating facilities or redesigning the SCN and allow decision makers to determine tradeoffs among the organization’s conflicting criteria

Design and Evaluation of a Traffic Safety System based on Vehicular Networks for the Next Generation of Intelligent Vehicles

La integración de las tecnologías de las telecomunicaciones en el sector del automóvil permitirá a los vehículos intercambiar información mediante Redes Vehiculares, ofreciendo numerosas posibilidades. Esta tesis se centra en la mejora de la seguridad vial y la reducción de la siniestralidad mediante Sistemas Inteligentes de Transporte (ITS). El primer paso consiste en obtener una difusión eficiente de los mensajes de advertencia sobre situaciones potencialmente peligrosas. Hemos desarrollado un marco para simular el intercambio de mensajes entre vehículos, utilizado para proponer esquemas eficientes de difusión. También demostramos que la disposición de las calles tiene gran influencia sobre la eficiencia del proceso. Nuestros algoritmos de difusión son parte de una arquitectura más amplia (e-NOTIFY) capaz de detectar accidentes de tráfico e informar a los servicios de emergencia. El desarrollo y evaluación de un prototipo demostró la viabilidad del sistema y cómo podría ayudar a reducir el número de víctimas en carretera

Metaheuristic Optimization Frameworks: a Survey and Benchmarking

This paper performs an unprecedented comparative study of Metaheuristic optimization frameworks. As criteria for comparison a set of 271 features grouped in 30 characteristics and 6 areas has been selected. These features include the different metaheuristic techniques covered, mechanisms for solution encoding, constraint handling, neighborhood specification, hybridization, parallel and distributed computation, software engineering best practices, documentation and user interface, etc. A metric has been defined for each feature so that the scores obtained by a framework are averaged within each group of features, leading to a final average score for each framework. Out of 33 frameworks ten have been selected from the literature using well-defined filtering criteria, and the results of the comparison are analyzed with the aim of identifying improvement areas and gaps in specific frameworks and the whole set. Generally speaking, a significant lack of support has been found for hyper-heuristics, and parallel and distributed computing capabilities. It is also desirable to have a wider implementation of some Software Engineering best practices. Finally, a wider support for some metaheuristics and hybridization capabilities is needed

Multiobjective genetic programming for financial portfolio management in dynamic environments

Multiobjective (MO) optimisation is a useful technique for evolving portfolio optimisation solutions that span a range from high-return/high-risk to low-return/low-risk. The resulting Pareto front would approximate the risk/reward Efficient Frontier [Mar52], and simplifies the choice of investment model for a given client’s attitude to risk. However, the financial market is continuously changing and it is essential to ensure that MO solutions are capturing true relationships between financial factors and not merely over fitting the training data. Research on evolutionary algorithms in dynamic environments has been directed towards adapting the algorithm to improve its suitability for retraining whenever a change is detected. Little research focused on how to assess and quantify the success of multiobjective solutions in unseen environments. The multiobjective nature of the problem adds a unique feature to be satisfied to judge robustness of solutions. That is, in addition to examining whether solutions remain optimal in the new environment, we need to ensure that the solutions’ relative positions previously identified on the Pareto front are not altered. This thesis investigates the performance of Multiobjective Genetic Programming (MOGP) in the dynamic real world problem of portfolio optimisation. The thesis provides new definitions and statistical metrics based on phenotypic cluster analysis to quantify robustness of both the solutions and the Pareto front. Focusing on the critical period between an environment change and when retraining occurs, four techniques to improve the robustness of solutions are examined. Namely, the use of a validation data set; diversity preservation; a novel variation on mating restriction; and a combination of both diversity enhancement and mating restriction. In addition, preliminary investigation of using the robustness metrics to quantify the severity of change for optimum tracking in a dynamic portfolio optimisation problem is carried out. Results show that the techniques used offer statistically significant improvement on the solutions’ robustness, although not on all the robustness criteria simultaneously. Combining the mating restriction with diversity enhancement provided the best robustness results while also greatly enhancing the quality of solutions

Adaptive and Scalable Controller Placement in Software-Defined Networking

Software-defined networking (SDN) revolutionizes network control by externalizing and centralizing the control plane. A critical aspect of SDN is Controller Placement (CP), which involves identifying the ideal number and location of controllers in a network to fulfill diverse objectives such as latency constraints (node-to-controller and controller-controller delay), fault tolerance, and controller load. Existing optimization techniques like Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimisation (MOPSO), Adapted Non-Dominating Sorting Genetic Algorithm-III (ANSGA-III), and Non-Dominating Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) struggle with scalability (except ANSGA-III), computational complexity, and inability to predict the required number of controllers. This thesis proposes two novel approaches to address these challenges. First, an enhanced version of NSGA-III with a repair operator-based approach (referred to as ANSGA-III) is introduced, enabling efficient CP in SD-WAN by optimizing multiple conflicting objectives simultaneously. Second, a Stochastic Computational Graph Model with Ensemble Learning (SCGMEL) is developed, overcoming scalability and computational inefficiency associated with existing methods. SCGMEL employs stochastic gradient descent with momentum, a learning rate decay, a computational graph model, a weighted sum approach, and the XGBoost algorithm for optimization and machine learning. The XGBoost predicts the number of controllers needed and a supervised classification algorithm called Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) is used to predict the optimal locations of controllers. Additionally, this research introduces the Improved Switch Migration Decision Algorithm (ISMDA) as part of the holistic contribution. ISMDA is implemented on each controller to ensure even load distribution throughout the controllers. It functions as a plug-and-play module, periodically checking if the load surpasses a certain limit. ISMDA improves controller throughput by approximately 7.4% over CAMD and roughly 1.1% over DALB. ISMDA also outperforms DALB and CAMD with a decrease of 5.7% and 1%, respectively, in terms of controller response time. Additionally, ISMDA outperforms DALB and CAMD with a decrease of 1.7% and 5.6%, respectively, in terms of the average frequency of migrations. The established framework results in fewer switch migrations during controller load imbalance. Finally, ISMDA proves more efficient than DALB and CAMD, with an estimated 1% and 6.4% lower average packet loss, respectively. This efficiency is a result of the proposed migration efficiency strategy, allowing ISMDA to handle higher loads and reject fewer packets. Real-world experiments were conducted using the Internet Zoo topology dataset to evaluate the proposed solutions. Six objective functions, including worst-case switch-to-controller delay, load balancing, reliability, average controller-to-controller latency, maximum controller-to-controller delay, and average switch-to-controller delay, were utilized for performance evaluation. Results demonstrated that ANSGA-III outperforms existing algorithms in terms of hypervolume indicator, execution time, convergence, diversity, and scalability. SCGMEL exhibited exceptional computational efficiency, surpassing ANSGA-III, NSGA-II, and MOPSO by 99.983%, 99.985%, and 99.446% respectively. The XGBoost regression model performed significantly better in predicting the number of controllers with a mean absolute error of 1.855751 compared to 3.829268, 3.729883, and 1.883536 for KNN, linear regression, and random forest, respectively. The proposed LVQ-based classification method achieved a test accuracy of 84% and accurately predicted six of the seven controller locations. To culminate, this study presents a refined and intelligent framework designed to optimize Controller Placement (CP) within the context of SD-WAN. The proposed solutions effectively tackle the shortcomings associated with existing algorithms, addressing challenges of scalability, intelligence (including the prediction of optimal controller numbers), and computational efficiency in the pursuit of simultaneous optimization of multiple conflicting objectives. The outcomes underscore the supremacy of the suggested methodologies and underscore their potential transformative influence on SDN deployments. Notably, the findings validate the efficacy of the proposed strategies, ANSGA-III and SCGMEL, in enhancing the optimization of controller placement within SD-WAN setups. The integration of the XGBoost regression model and LVQ-based classification technique yields precise predictions for both optimal controller quantities and their respective positions. Additionally, the ISMDA algorithm emerges as a pivotal enhancement, enhancing controller throughput, mitigating packet losses, and reducing switch migration frequency—collectively contributing to elevated standards in SDN deployments

Dynamic multi-objective optimization using evolutionary algorithms

Dynamic Multi-objective Optimization Problems (DMOPs) offer an opportunity to examine and solve challenging real world scenarios where trade-off solutions between conflicting objectives change over time. Definition of benchmark problems allows modelling of industry scenarios across transport, power and communications networks, manufacturing and logistics. Recently, significant progress has been made in the variety and complexity of DMOP benchmarks and the incorporation of realistic dynamic characteristics. However, significant gaps still exist in standardised methodology for DMOPs, specific problem domain examples and in the understanding of the impacts and explanations of dynamic characteristics. This thesis provides major contributions on these three topics within evolutionary dynamic multi-objective optimization. Firstly, experimental protocols for DMOPs are varied. This limits the applicability and relevance of results produced and conclusions made in the field. A major source of the inconsistency lies in the parameters used to define specific problem instances being examined. The uninformed selection of these has historically held back understanding of their impacts and standardisation in experimental approach to these parameters in the multi-objective problem domain. Using the frequency and severity (or magnitude) of change events, a more informed approach to DMOP experimentation is conceptualized, implemented and evaluated. Establishment of a baseline performance expectation across a comprehensive range of dynamic instances for well-studied DMOP benchmarks is analyzed. To maximize relevance, these profiles are composed from the performance of evolutionary algorithms commonly used for baseline comparisons and those with simple dynamic responses. Comparison and contrast with the coverage of parameter combinations in the sampled literature highlights the importance of these contributions. Secondly, the provision of useful and realistic DMOPs in the combinatorial domain is limited in previous literature. A novel dynamic benchmark problem is presented by the extension of the Travelling Thief Problem (TTP) to include a variety of realistic and contextually justified dynamic changes. Investigation of problem information exploitation and it's potential application as a dynamic response is a key output of these results and context is provided through comparison to results obtained by adapting existing TTP heuristics. Observation driven iterative development prompted the investigation of multi-population island model strategies, together with improvements in the approaches to accurately describe and compare the performance of algorithm models for DMOPs, a contribution which is applicable beyond the dynamic TTP. Thirdly, the purpose of DMOPs is to reconstruct realistic scenarios, or features from them, to allow for experimentation and development of better optimization algorithms. However, numerous important characteristics from real systems still require implementation and will drive research and development of algorithms and mechanisms to handle these industrially relevant problem classes. The novel challenges associated with these implementations are significant and diverse, even for a simple development such as consideration of DMOPs with multiple time dependencies. Real world systems with dynamics are likely to contain multiple temporally changing aspects, particularly in energy and transport domains. Problems with more than one dynamic problem component allow for asynchronous changes and a differing severity between components that leads to an explosion in the size of the possible dynamic instance space. Both continuous and combinatorial problem domains require structured investigation into the best practices for experimental design, algorithm application and performance measurement, comparison and visualization. Highlighting the challenges, the key requirements for effective progress and recommendations on experimentation are explored here

Planning and operating energy storage for maximum technical and financial benefits in electricity distribution networks

PhD ThesisThe transmission and distribution networks are facing changes in the way they will be planned, operated and maintained as a result of the rise in the deployment of Low Carbon Technologies (LCTs) on the power grid. These LCTs provide the benefits of a decarbonised grid and reduce reliance on fossil fuels and large centralised generation. As LCTs are close to the demand centres, a significant amount will be deployed in distribution networks. The distribution networks face challenges in enabling a wide deployment of LCTs because they were traditionally built for centralised generation and most are operated passively as demand patterns are well understood and power flows are unidirectional to load centres. The opposite will be the case for distribution networks with LCTs. Utilities that own and operate distribution networks such as the DNOs in the UK will face a host of problems, such as voltage and thermal excursions and power quality issues on their networks. Traditional reinforcement methods will be expensive for DNOs, so they are considering innovative solutions that provide multiple benefits; this is where Energy Storage Systems (ESS) could play a role to provide multiple technical and economic benefits across the grid from voltage and power flow management to upgrade deferral of network assets. This is due to the multifunctional nature of ESS allowing it to act as generation, transmission, demand or demand response based on requirements at any specific time based on the requirements of the stakeholder involved with the asset. ESS is technically capable of providing benefits to DNOs and other stakeholders on the electricity grid but the business case is not proven. Unless multiple benefits are aggregated, investment in ESS is challenging as they have a substantial capital cost and some components will require more frequent replacement than traditional network assets which typically last between 20 – 40+ years. As a result there is a reluctance to include them in future distribution network planning arrangements. IV Furthermore, the electricity regulatory and market design, which was set up in the time of traditional centralised generation and networks, limits investment in ESS by regulated bodies such as DNOs. The regulations and market structures also affects revenue streams and the resulting business case for ESS. This thesis investigates the feasibility of ESS in distribution networks by first studying the effect of current electricity regulatory and market practices on ESS deployment, investigating how ESS can be used under the present rules, and establishing whether there are limitations that can be reduced or removed. Secondly, short and medium term planning is carried out on model Medium Voltage distribution networks (6.6 kV) provided by the IEEE and Electricity North West Limited to establish the technical and financial viability of investing in ESS over conventional reinforcement methods by: Assessing the impact of the proliferation of LCTs in distribution networks using both deterministic and stochastic methods under different scenarios based on current developments and government policies in the UK. This stochastic evaluation considers both spatial and temporal aspects of LCTs in distribution networks with datasets obtained from real distribution network customers; Developing and applying ESS voltage and power flow management, and market control algorithms to resolve distribution network issues resulting from growing LCTs and allowing ESS to participate in the electricity spot market over a planning period up to the year 2030; Providing a framework for assessing the business case of ESS under a DNO or third-party ownership structure where technical and commercial benefits from network asset upgrade deferral, energy arbitrage, balancing market and ancillary services (frequency response and short term operating reserves), distribution and transmission system use of system benefits are evaluated; V Optimising the operation of ESS considering multiple technical and commercial objectives to establish the technical benefits and revenues that can be obtained from an ESS deployment and the trade-off of benefits that applies for differing ownership types. The simulation results show that, under the scenarios investigated, ESS can be used as a technical solution for DNOs. They show that the ESS capital costs can be offset by aggregating benefits from both technical and commercial applications in distribution networks if regulatory and market changes are made. The conclusions offer a perspective to DNOs and third parties’ considering investing in ESS on the electricity grid as it evolves towards a more active, decarbonised system.Electricity North West Limited and Scottish Power Energy Networks sponsored my stud

A multi-agent optimisation model for solving supply network configuration problems

Supply chain literature highlights the increasing importance of effective supply network configuration decisions that take into account such realities as market turbulence and demand volatility, as well as ever-expanding global production networks. These realities have been extensively discussed in the supply network literature under the structural (i.e., physical characteristics), spatial (i.e., geographical positions), and temporal (i.e., changing supply network conditions) dimensions. Supply network configuration decisions that account for these contingencies are expected to meet the evolving needs of consumers while delivering better outcomes for all parties involved and enhancing supply network performance against the key metrics of efficiency, speed and responsiveness. However, making supply network configuration decisions in the situations described above is an ongoing challenge. Taking a systems perspective, supply networks are typically viewed as socio-technical systems where SN entities (e.g., suppliers, manufacturers) are autonomous individuals with distinct goals, practices and policies, physically inter-connected transferring goods (e.g., raw materials, finished products), as well as socially connected with formal and informal interactions and information sharing. Since the structure and behaviour of such social and technical sub-systems of a supply network, as well as the interactions between those subsystems, determine the overall behaviour of the supply network, both systems should be considered in analysing the overall system

Antecipação na tomada de decisão com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza

Orientador: Fernando José Von ZubenTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: A presença de incerteza em resultados futuros pode levar a indecisões em processos de escolha, especialmente ao elicitar as importâncias relativas de múltiplos critérios de decisão e de desempenhos de curto vs. longo prazo. Algumas decisões, no entanto, devem ser tomadas sob informação incompleta, o que pode resultar em ações precipitadas com consequências imprevisíveis. Quando uma solução deve ser selecionada sob vários pontos de vista conflitantes para operar em ambientes ruidosos e variantes no tempo, implementar alternativas provisórias flexíveis pode ser fundamental para contornar a falta de informação completa, mantendo opções futuras em aberto. A engenharia antecipatória pode então ser considerada como a estratégia de conceber soluções flexíveis as quais permitem aos tomadores de decisão responder de forma robusta a cenários imprevisíveis. Essa estratégia pode, assim, mitigar os riscos de, sem intenção, se comprometer fortemente a alternativas incertas, ao mesmo tempo em que aumenta a adaptabilidade às mudanças futuras. Nesta tese, os papéis da antecipação e da flexibilidade na automação de processos de tomada de decisão sequencial com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza é investigado. O dilema de atribuir importâncias relativas aos critérios de decisão e a recompensas imediatas sob informação incompleta é então tratado pela antecipação autônoma de decisões flexíveis capazes de preservar ao máximo a diversidade de escolhas futuras. Uma metodologia de aprendizagem antecipatória on-line é então proposta para melhorar a variedade e qualidade dos conjuntos futuros de soluções de trade-off. Esse objetivo é alcançado por meio da previsão de conjuntos de máximo hipervolume esperado, para a qual as capacidades de antecipação de metaheurísticas multi-objetivo são incrementadas com rastreamento bayesiano em ambos os espaços de busca e dos objetivos. A metodologia foi aplicada para a obtenção de decisões de investimento, as quais levaram a melhoras significativas do hipervolume futuro de conjuntos de carteiras financeiras de trade-off avaliadas com dados de ações fora da amostra de treino, quando comparada a uma estratégia míope. Além disso, a tomada de decisões flexíveis para o rebalanceamento de carteiras foi confirmada como uma estratégia significativamente melhor do que a de escolher aleatoriamente uma decisão de investimento a partir da fronteira estocástica eficiente evoluída, em todos os mercados artificiais e reais testados. Finalmente, os resultados sugerem que a antecipação de opções flexíveis levou a composições de carteiras que se mostraram significativamente correlacionadas com as melhorias observadas no hipervolume futuro esperado, avaliado com dados fora das amostras de treinoAbstract: The presence of uncertainty in future outcomes can lead to indecision in choice processes, especially when eliciting the relative importances of multiple decision criteria and of long-term vs. near-term performance. Some decisions, however, must be taken under incomplete information, what may result in precipitated actions with unforeseen consequences. When a solution must be selected under multiple conflicting views for operating in time-varying and noisy environments, implementing flexible provisional alternatives can be critical to circumvent the lack of complete information by keeping future options open. Anticipatory engineering can be then regarded as the strategy of designing flexible solutions that enable decision makers to respond robustly to unpredictable scenarios. This strategy can thus mitigate the risks of strong unintended commitments to uncertain alternatives, while increasing adaptability to future changes. In this thesis, the roles of anticipation and of flexibility on automating sequential multiple criteria decision-making processes under uncertainty are investigated. The dilemma of assigning relative importances to decision criteria and to immediate rewards under incomplete information is then handled by autonomously anticipating flexible decisions predicted to maximally preserve diversity of future choices. An online anticipatory learning methodology is then proposed for improving the range and quality of future trade-off solution sets. This goal is achieved by predicting maximal expected hypervolume sets, for which the anticipation capabilities of multi-objective metaheuristics are augmented with Bayesian tracking in both the objective and search spaces. The methodology has been applied for obtaining investment decisions that are shown to significantly improve the future hypervolume of trade-off financial portfolios for out-of-sample stock data, when compared to a myopic strategy. Moreover, implementing flexible portfolio rebalancing decisions was confirmed as a significantly better strategy than to randomly choosing an investment decision from the evolved stochastic efficient frontier in all tested artificial and real-world markets. Finally, the results suggest that anticipating flexible choices has lead to portfolio compositions that are significantly correlated with the observed improvements in out-of-sample future expected hypervolumeDoutoradoEngenharia de ComputaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétric