18,180 research outputs found
Learning the structure of Bayesian Networks: A quantitative assessment of the effect of different algorithmic schemes
One of the most challenging tasks when adopting Bayesian Networks (BNs) is
the one of learning their structure from data. This task is complicated by the
huge search space of possible solutions, and by the fact that the problem is
NP-hard. Hence, full enumeration of all the possible solutions is not always
feasible and approximations are often required. However, to the best of our
knowledge, a quantitative analysis of the performance and characteristics of
the different heuristics to solve this problem has never been done before.
For this reason, in this work, we provide a detailed comparison of many
different state-of-the-arts methods for structural learning on simulated data
considering both BNs with discrete and continuous variables, and with different
rates of noise in the data. In particular, we investigate the performance of
different widespread scores and algorithmic approaches proposed for the
inference and the statistical pitfalls within them
Two Optimal Strategies for Active Learning of Causal Models from Interventional Data
From observational data alone, a causal DAG is only identifiable up to Markov
equivalence. Interventional data generally improves identifiability; however,
the gain of an intervention strongly depends on the intervention target, that
is, the intervened variables. We present active learning (that is, optimal
experimental design) strategies calculating optimal interventions for two
different learning goals. The first one is a greedy approach using
single-vertex interventions that maximizes the number of edges that can be
oriented after each intervention. The second one yields in polynomial time a
minimum set of targets of arbitrary size that guarantees full identifiability.
This second approach proves a conjecture of Eberhardt (2008) indicating the
number of unbounded intervention targets which is sufficient and in the worst
case necessary for full identifiability. In a simulation study, we compare our
two active learning approaches to random interventions and an existing
approach, and analyze the influence of estimation errors on the overall
performance of active learning
Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?
In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchment
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