Network hierarchy evolution and system vulnerability in power grids

(c) 2016 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.The seldom addressed network hierarchy property and its relationship with vulnerability analysis for power transmission grids from a complex-systems point of view are given in this paper. We analyze and compare the evolution of network hierarchy for the dynamic vulnerability evaluation of four different power transmission grids of real cases. Several meaningful results suggest that the vulnerability of power grids can be assessed by means of a network hierarchy evolution analysis. First, the network hierarchy evolution may be used as a novel measurement to quantify the robustness of power grids. Second, an antipyramidal structure appears in the most robust network when quantifying cascading failures by the proposed hierarchy metric. Furthermore, the analysis results are also validated and proved by empirical reliability data. We show that our proposed hierarchy evolution analysis methodology could be used to assess the vulnerability of power grids or even other networks from a complex-systems point of view.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Methods and techniques for analyzing human factors facets on drivers

Mención Internacional en el título de doctorWith millions of cars moving daily, driving is the most performed activity worldwide. Unfortunately, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), every year, around 1.35 million people worldwide die from road traffic accidents and, in addition, between 20 and 50 million people are injured, placing road traffic accidents as the second leading cause of death among people between the ages of 5 and 29. According to WHO, human errors, such as speeding, driving under the influence of drugs, fatigue, or distractions at the wheel, are the underlying cause of most road accidents. Global reports on road safety such as "Road safety in the European Union. Trends, statistics, and main challenges" prepared by the European Commission in 2018 presented a statistical analysis that related road accident mortality rates and periods segmented by hours and days of the week. This report revealed that the highest incidence of mortality occurs regularly in the afternoons during working days, coinciding with the period when the volume of traffic increases and when any human error is much more likely to cause a traffic accident. Accordingly, mitigating human errors in driving is a challenge, and there is currently a growing trend in the proposal for technological solutions intended to integrate driver information into advanced driving systems to improve driver performance and ergonomics. The study of human factors in the field of driving is a multidisciplinary field in which several areas of knowledge converge, among which stand out psychology, physiology, instrumentation, signal treatment, machine learning, the integration of information and communication technologies (ICTs), and the design of human-machine communication interfaces. The main objective of this thesis is to exploit knowledge related to the different facets of human factors in the field of driving. Specific objectives include identifying tasks related to driving, the detection of unfavorable cognitive states in the driver, such as stress, and, transversely, the proposal for an architecture for the integration and coordination of driver monitoring systems with other active safety systems. It should be noted that the specific objectives address the critical aspects in each of the issues to be addressed. Identifying driving-related tasks is one of the primary aspects of the conceptual framework of driver modeling. Identifying maneuvers that a driver performs requires training beforehand a model with examples of each maneuver to be identified. To this end, a methodology was established to form a data set in which a relationship is established between the handling of the driving controls (steering wheel, pedals, gear lever, and turn indicators) and a series of adequately identified maneuvers. This methodology consisted of designing different driving scenarios in a realistic driving simulator for each type of maneuver, including stop, overtaking, turns, and specific maneuvers such as U-turn and three-point turn. From the perspective of detecting unfavorable cognitive states in the driver, stress can damage cognitive faculties, causing failures in the decision-making process. Physiological signals such as measurements derived from the heart rhythm or the change of electrical properties of the skin are reliable indicators when assessing whether a person is going through an episode of acute stress. However, the detection of stress patterns is still an open problem. Despite advances in sensor design for the non-invasive collection of physiological signals, certain factors prevent reaching models capable of detecting stress patterns in any subject. This thesis addresses two aspects of stress detection: the collection of physiological values during stress elicitation through laboratory techniques such as the Stroop effect and driving tests; and the detection of stress by designing a process flow based on unsupervised learning techniques, delving into the problems associated with the variability of intra- and inter-individual physiological measures that prevent the achievement of generalist models. Finally, in addition to developing models that address the different aspects of monitoring, the orchestration of monitoring systems and active safety systems is a transversal and essential aspect in improving safety, ergonomics, and driving experience. Both from the perspective of integration into test platforms and integration into final systems, the problem of deploying multiple active safety systems lies in the adoption of monolithic models where the system-specific functionality is run in isolation, without considering aspects such as cooperation and interoperability with other safety systems. This thesis addresses the problem of the development of more complex systems where monitoring systems condition the operability of multiple active safety systems. To this end, a mediation architecture is proposed to coordinate the reception and delivery of data flows generated by the various systems involved, including external sensors (lasers, external cameras), cabin sensors (cameras, smartwatches), detection models, deliberative models, delivery systems and machine-human communication interfaces. Ontology-based data modeling plays a crucial role in structuring all this information and consolidating the semantic representation of the driving scene, thus allowing the development of models based on data fusion.I would like to thank the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for granting me the predoctoral fellowship BES-2016-078143 corresponding to the project TRA2015-63708-R, which provided me the opportunity of conducting all my Ph. D activities, including completing an international internship.Programa de Doctorado en Ciencia y Tecnología Informática por la Universidad Carlos III de MadridPresidente: José María Armingol Moreno.- Secretario: Felipe Jiménez Alonso.- Vocal: Luis Mart

A Comprehensive Survey on Rare Event Prediction

Rare event prediction involves identifying and forecasting events with a low probability using machine learning and data analysis. Due to the imbalanced data distributions, where the frequency of common events vastly outweighs that of rare events, it requires using specialized methods within each step of the machine learning pipeline, i.e., from data processing to algorithms to evaluation protocols. Predicting the occurrences of rare events is important for real-world applications, such as Industry 4.0, and is an active research area in statistical and machine learning. This paper comprehensively reviews the current approaches for rare event prediction along four dimensions: rare event data, data processing, algorithmic approaches, and evaluation approaches. Specifically, we consider 73 datasets from different modalities (i.e., numerical, image, text, and audio), four major categories of data processing, five major algorithmic groupings, and two broader evaluation approaches. This paper aims to identify gaps in the current literature and highlight the challenges of predicting rare events. It also suggests potential research directions, which can help guide practitioners and researchers.Comment: 44 page

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science

Artificial intelligence for digital twins in energy systems and turbomachinery: development of machine learning frameworks for design, optimization and maintenance

The expression Industry4.0 identifies a new industrial paradigm that includes the development of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) and Digital Twins promoting the use of Big-Data, Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools. Digital Twins aims to build a dynamic environment in which, with the help of vertical, horizontal and end-to-end integration among industrial processes, smart technologies can communicate and exchange data to analyze and solve production problems, increase productivity and provide cost, time and energy savings. Specifically in the energy systems field, the introduction of AI technologies can lead to significant improvements in both machine design and optimization and maintenance procedures. Over the past decade, data from engineering processes have grown in scale. In fact, the use of more technologically sophisticated sensors and the increase in available computing power have enabled both experimental measurements and highresolution numerical simulations, making available an enormous amount of data on the performance of energy systems. Therefore, to build a Digital Twin model capable of exploring these unorganized data pools collected from massive and heterogeneous resources, new Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning strategies need to be developed. In light of the exponential growth in the use of smart technologies in manufacturing processes, this thesis aims at enhancing traditional approaches to the design, analysis, and optimization phases of turbomachinery and energy systems, which today are still predominantly based on empirical procedures or computationally intensive CFD-based optimizations. This improvement is made possible by the implementation of Digital Twins models, which, being based primarily on the use of Machine Learning that exploits performance Big-Data collected from energy systems, are acknowledged as crucial technologies to remain competitive in the dynamic energy production landscape. The introduction of Digital Twin models changes the overall structure of design and maintenance approaches and results in modern support tools that facilitate real-time informed decision making. In addition, the introduction of supervised learning algorithms facilitates the exploration of the design space by providing easy-to-run analytical models, which can also be used as cost functions in multi-objective optimization problems, avoiding the need for time-consuming numerical simulations or experimental campaings. Unsupervised learning methods can be applied, for example, to extract new insights from turbomachinery performance data and improve designers’ understanding of blade-flow interaction. Alternatively, Artificial Intelligence frameworks can be developed for Condition-Based Maintenance, allowing the transition from preventive to predictive maintenance. This thesis can be conceptually divided into two parts. The first reviews the state of the art of Cyber-Physical Systems and Digital Twins, highlighting the crucial role of Artificial Intelligence in supporting informed decision making during the design, optimization, and maintenance phases of energy systems. The second part covers the development of Machine Learning strategies to improve the classical approach to turbomachinery design and maintenance strategies for energy systems by exploiting data from numerical simulations, experimental campaigns, and sensor datasets (SCADA). The different Machine Learning approaches adopted include clustering algorithms, regression algorithms and dimensionality reduction techniques: Autoencoder and Principal Component Analysis. A first work shows the potential of unsupervised learning approaches (clustering algorithms) in exploring a Design of Experiment of 76 numerical simulations for turbomachinery design purposes. The second work takes advantage of a nonsequential experimental dataset, measured on a rotating turbine rig characterized by 48 blades divided into 7 sectors that share the same baseline rotor geometry but have different tip designs, to infer and dissect the causal relationship among different tip geometries and unsteady aero-thermodynamic performance via a novel Machine-Learning procedure based on dimensionality reduction techniques. The last application proposes a new anomaly detection framework for gensets in DH networks, based on SCADA data that exploits and compares the performance of regression algorithms such as XGBoost and Multi-layer Perceptron