60,767 research outputs found
Progress on Intelligent Guidance and Control for Wind Shear Encounter
Low altitude wind shear poses a serious threat to air safety. Avoiding severe wind shear challenges the ability of flight crews, as it involves assessing risk from uncertain evidence. A computerized intelligent cockpit aid can increase flight crew awareness of wind shear, improving avoidance decisions. The primary functions of a cockpit advisory expert system for wind shear avoidance are discussed. Also introduced are computational techniques being implemented to enable these primary functions
Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: The challenge of identifying input and structural errors
Meaningful quantification of data and structural uncertainties in conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling is a major scientific and engineering challenge. This paper focuses on the total predictive uncertainty and its decomposition into input and structural components under different inference scenarios. Several Bayesian inference schemes are investigated, differing in the treatment of rainfall and structural uncertainties, and in the precision of the priors describing rainfall uncertainty. Compared with traditional lumped additive error approaches, the quantification of the total predictive uncertainty in the runoff is improved when rainfall and/or structural errors are characterized explicitly. However, the decomposition of the total uncertainty into individual sources is more challenging. In particular, poor identifiability may arise when the inference scheme represents rainfall and structural errors using separate probabilistic models. The inference becomes illâposed unless sufficiently precise prior knowledge of data uncertainty is supplied; this illâposedness can often be detected from the behavior of the Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. Moreover, the priors on the data quality must also be sufficiently accurate if the inference is to be reliable and support meaningful uncertainty decomposition. Our findings highlight the inherent limitations of inferring inaccurate hydrologic models using rainfallârunoff data with large unknown errors. Bayesian total error analysis can overcome these problems using independent prior information. The need for deriving independent descriptions of the uncertainties in the input and output data is clearly demonstrated.Benjamin Renard, Dmitri Kavetski, George Kuczera, Mark Thyer, and Stewart W. Frank
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An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper
This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of Californiaâs California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014
RNA secondary structure prediction from multi-aligned sequences
It has been well accepted that the RNA secondary structures of most
functional non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) are closely related to their functions and
are conserved during evolution. Hence, prediction of conserved secondary
structures from evolutionarily related sequences is one important task in RNA
bioinformatics; the methods are useful not only to further functional analyses
of ncRNAs but also to improve the accuracy of secondary structure predictions
and to find novel functional RNAs from the genome. In this review, I focus on
common secondary structure prediction from a given aligned RNA sequence, in
which one secondary structure whose length is equal to that of the input
alignment is predicted. I systematically review and classify existing tools and
algorithms for the problem, by utilizing the information employed in the tools
and by adopting a unified viewpoint based on maximum expected gain (MEG)
estimators. I believe that this classification will allow a deeper
understanding of each tool and provide users with useful information for
selecting tools for common secondary structure predictions.Comment: A preprint of an invited review manuscript that will be published in
a chapter of the book `Methods in Molecular Biology'. Note that this version
of the manuscript may differ from the published versio
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