Social ski driver conditional autoregressive-based deep learning classifier for flight delay prediction

The importance of robust flight delay prediction has recently increased in the air transportation industry. This industry seeks alternative methods and technologies for more robust flight delay prediction because of its significance for all stakeholders. The most affected are airlines that suffer from monetary and passenger loyalty losses. Several studies have attempted to analysed and solve flight delay prediction problems using machine learning methods. This research proposes a novel alternative method, namely social ski driver conditional autoregressive-based (SSDCA-based) deep learning. Our proposed method combines the Social Ski Driver algorithm with Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles. We consider the most relevant instances from the training dataset, which are the delayed flights. We applied data transformation to stabilise the data variance using Yeo-Johnson. We then perform the training and testing of our data using deep recurrent neural network (DRNN) and SSDCA-based algorithms. The SSDCA-based optimisation algorithm helped us choose the right network architecture with better accuracy and less error than the existing literature. The results of our proposed SSDCA-based method and existing benchmark methods were compared. The efficiency and computational time of our proposed method are compared against the existing benchmark methods. The SSDCA-based DRNN provides a more accurate flight delay prediction with 0.9361 and 0.9252 accuracy rates on both dataset-1 and dataset-2, respectively. To show the reliability of our method, we compared it with other meta-heuristic approaches. The result is that the SSDCA-based DRNN outperformed all existing benchmark methods tested in our experiment

A Machine Learning Approach Towards Analyzing Impact of Surface Weather on Expect Departure Clearance Times in Aviation

Commercial air travel in the United States has grown significantly in the past decade. While the reasons for air traffic delays can vary, the weather is the largest cause of flight cancellations and delays in the United States. Air Traffic Control centers utilize Traffic Management Initiatives such as Ground Stops and Expect Departure Clearance Times (EDCT) to manage traffic into and out of affected airports. Airline dispatchers and pilots monitor EDCTs to adjust flight blocks and flight schedules to reduce the impact on the airline’s operating network. The use of time-series data mining can be used to assess and quantify the impact of surface weather variables on EDCTs. A major hub airport in the United States, Charlotte Douglas International Airport, was chosen for the model development and assessment, and Vector Autoregression and Recurrent Neural Network models were developed. While both models were assessed to have demonstrated acceptable performance for the assessment, the Vector Autoregression outperformed the Recurrent Neural Network model. Weather variables up to six hours before the prediction time period were used to develop the proposed lasso regularized Vector Autoregression equation. Precipitation values were assessed to be the most significant predictors for EDCT values by the Vector Autoregression and Recurrent Neural Network models

Data-driven Models for Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Aircraft Engines and Hard Disk Drives

Failure of physical devices can cause inconvenience, loss of money, and sometimes even deaths. To improve the reliability of these devices, we need to know the remaining useful life (RUL) of a device at a given point in time. Data-driven approaches use data from a physical device to build a model that can estimate the RUL. They have shown great performance and are often simpler than traditional model-based approaches. Typical statistical and machine learning approaches are often not suited for sequential data prediction. Recurrent Neural Networks are designed to work with sequential data but suffer from the vanishing gradient problem over time. Therefore, I explore the use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for RUL prediction. I perform two experiments. First, I train bidirectional LSTM networks on the Backblaze hard-disk drive dataset. I achieve an accuracy of 96.4\% on a 60 day time window, state-of-the-art performance. Additionally, I use a unique standardization method that standardizes each hard drive instance independently and explore the benefits and downsides of this approach. Finally, I train LSTM models on the NASA N-CMAPSS dataset to predict aircraft engine remaining useful life. I train models on each of the eight sub-datasets, achieving a RMSE of 6.304 on one of the sub-datasets, the second-best in the current literature. I also compare an LSTM network\u27s performance to the performance of a Random Forest and Temporal Convolutional Neural Network model, demonstrating the LSTM network\u27s superior performance. I find that LSTM networks are capable predictors for device remaining useful life and show a thorough model development process that can be reproduced to develop LSTM models for various RUL prediction tasks. These models will be able to improve the reliability of devices such as aircraft engines and hard-disk drives

Flight trajectory prediction for aeronautical communications.

The development of future technologies for the National Airspace System (NAS) will be reliant on a new communications infrastructure capable of managing a limited spectrum among aircraft and ground systems. Emerging approaches to this spectrum allocation task mostly consider machine learning techniques reliant on aircraft and Air Traffic Control (ATC) sector data. Much of this data, however, is not directly available. This thesis considers the development of two such data products: the 4D trajectory (latitude, longitude, altitude, and time) of aircraft, and the anticipated airspace utilization and communication demand within an ATC sector. Data predictions are treated as a time series forecast challenge and addressed via the development of deep learning models with some form of recurrence. For each data product, relevant datasets are explored and an architecture search is conducted to identify and optimize a deep learning model. To this end, current efforts have primarily addressed trajectory prediction. Flight and weather data for the 4D trajectory prediction have been identified and preprocessed; initial comparisons of weather data have been used to hypothesize useful combinations; and initial model architectures have been identified for comparative development. Future work seeks to finalize training efforts toward trajectory prediction and address the task of airspace demand prediction

A Deep Feedforward Neural Network and Shallow Architectures Effectiveness Comparison: Flight Delays Classification Perspective

Flight delays have negatively impacted the socio-economics state of passengers, airlines and airports, resulting in huge economic losses. Hence, it has become necessary to correctly predict their occurrences in decision-making because it is important for the effective management of the aviation industry. Developing accurate flight delays classification models depends mostly on the air transportation system complexity and the infrastructure available in airports, which may be a region-specific issue. However, no specific prediction or classification model can handle the individual characteristics of all airlines and airports at the same time. Hence, the need to further develop and compare predictive models for the aviation decision system of the future cannot be over-emphasised. In this research, flight on-time data records from the United State Bureau of Transportation Statistics was employed to evaluate the performances of Deep Feedforward Neural Network, Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine models on a binary classification problem. The research revealed that the models achieved different accuracies of flight delay classifications. The Support Vector Machine had the worst average accuracy than Neural Network and Deep Feedforward Neural Network in the initial experiment. The Deep Feedforward Neural Network outperformed Support Vector Machines and Neural Network with the best average percentage accuracies. Going further to investigate the Deep Feedforward Neural Network architecture on different parameters against itself suggest that training a Deep Feedforward Neural Network algorithm, regardless of data training size, the classification accuracy peaks. We examine which number of epochs works best in our flight delay classification settings for the Deep Feedforward Neural Network. Our experiment results demonstrate that having many epochs affects the convergence rate of the model; unlike when hidden layers are increased, it does not ensure better or higher accuracy in a binary classification of flight delays. Finally, we recommended further studies on the applicability of the Deep Feedforward Neural Network in flight delays prediction with specific case studies of either airlines or airports to check the impact on the model's performance

ADS-B Classification using Multivariate Long Short-term Memory–fully Convolutional Networks and Data Reduction Techniques

Researchers typically increase training data to improve neural net predictive capabilities, but this method is infeasible when data or compute resources are limited. This paper extends previous research that used long short-term memory–fully convolutional networks to identify aircraft engine types from publicly available automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) data. This research designs two experiments that vary the amount of training data samples and input features to determine the impact on the predictive power of the ADS-B classification model. The first experiment varies the number of training data observations from a limited feature set and results in 83.9% accuracy (within 10% of previous efforts with only 25% of the data). The findings show that feature selection and data quality lead to higher classification accuracy than data quantity. The second experiment accepted all ADS-B feature combinations and determined that airspeed, barometric pressure, and vertical speed had the most impact on aircraft engine type prediction

Neural Network Models for Generating Synthetic Flight Data

Flight test data is a valuable resource used in many aerospace applications. However, procuring a sufficiently large database of flight test data poses several challenges. Nominal flight tests can be expensive and time-consuming and require much post-processing depending on the availability of sensors and the quality of the sensor output. Flight test performed outside of nominal flight conditions, or flight tests in which failures are introduced, add to the inherent risk and danger associated with flight tests. The most popular alternative to flight test, numerical simulations, may fail to fully capture all non-linear behavior. While flight tests will always be required, a method for augmenting an existing database of flight test data with synthetically generated data could help alleviate some of the aforementioned challenges. Over the past few decades, generative machine learning has a emerged as a popular tool for data augmentation. In this thesis, several neural network architectures were investigated as methods of generating synthetic flight data that is consistent with the aircraft dynamics