Forecasting foreign exchange rates with adaptive neural networks using radial basis functions and particle swarm optimization

The motivation for this paper is to introduce a hybrid Neural Network architecture of Particle Swarm Optimization and Adaptive Radial Basis Function (ARBF-PSO), a time varying leverage trading strategy based on Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (GJR) volatility forecasts and a Neural Network fitness function for financial forecasting purposes. This is done by benchmarking the ARBF-PSO results with those of three different Neural Networks architectures, a Nearest Neighbors algorithm (k-NN), an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA), a moving average convergence/divergence model (MACD) plus a naïve strategy. More specifically, the trading and statistical performance of all models is investigated in a forecast simulation of the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY ECB exchange rate fixing time series over the period January 1999 to March 2011 using the last two years for out-of-sample testing

Artificial Neural Network and its Applications in the Energy Sector – An Overview

In order to realize the goal of optimal use of energy sources and cleaner environment at a minimal cost, researchers; field professionals; and industrialists have identified the expediency of harnessing the computational benefits provided by artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. This article provides an overview of AI, chronological blueprints of the emergence of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and some of its applications in the energy sector. This short survey reveals that despite the initial hiccups at the developmental stages of ANNs, ANN has tremendously evolved, is still evolving and have been found to be effective in handling highly complex problems even in the areas of modeling, control, and optimization, to mention a few

Computational intelligence approaches for energy load forecasting in smart energy management grids: state of the art, future challenges, and research directions and Research Directions

Energy management systems are designed to monitor, optimize, and control the smart grid energy market. Demand-side management, considered as an essential part of the energy management system, can enable utility market operators to make better management decisions for energy trading between consumers and the operator. In this system, a priori knowledge about the energy load pattern can help reshape the load and cut the energy demand curve, thus allowing a better management and distribution of the energy in smart grid energy systems. Designing a computationally intelligent load forecasting (ILF) system is often a primary goal of energy demand management. This study explores the state of the art of computationally intelligent (i.e., machine learning) methods that are applied in load forecasting in terms of their classification and evaluation for sustainable operation of the overall energy management system. More than 50 research papers related to the subject identified in existing literature are classified into two categories: namely the single and the hybrid computational intelligence (CI)-based load forecasting technique. The advantages and disadvantages of each individual techniques also discussed to encapsulate them into the perspective into the energy management research. The identified methods have been further investigated by a qualitative analysis based on the accuracy of the prediction, which confirms the dominance of hybrid forecasting methods, which are often applied as metaheurstic algorithms considering the different optimization techniques over single model approaches. Based on extensive surveys, the review paper predicts a continuous future expansion of such literature on different CI approaches and their optimizations with both heuristic and metaheuristic methods used for energy load forecasting and their potential utilization in real-time smart energy management grids to address future challenges in energy demand managemen

Nature-inspired algorithms for solving some hard numerical problems

Optimisation is a branch of mathematics that was developed to find the optimal solutions, among all the possible ones, for a given problem. Applications of optimisation techniques are currently employed in engineering, computing, and industrial problems. Therefore, optimisation is a very active research area, leading to the publication of a large number of methods to solve specific problems to its optimality. This dissertation focuses on the adaptation of two nature inspired algorithms that, based on optimisation techniques, are able to compute approximations for zeros of polynomials and roots of non-linear equations and systems of non-linear equations. Although many iterative methods for finding all the roots of a given function already exist, they usually require: (a) repeated deflations, that can lead to very inaccurate results due to the problem of accumulating rounding errors, (b) good initial approximations to the roots for the algorithm converge, or (c) the computation of first or second order derivatives, which besides being computationally intensive, it is not always possible. The drawbacks previously mentioned served as motivation for the use of Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for root-finding, since they are known, respectively, for their ability to explore high-dimensional spaces (not requiring good initial approximations) and for their capability to model complex problems. Besides that, both methods do not need repeated deflations, nor derivative information. The algorithms were described throughout this document and tested using a test suite of hard numerical problems in science and engineering. Results, in turn, were compared with several results available on the literature and with the well-known Durand–Kerner method, depicting that both algorithms are effective to solve the numerical problems considered.A Optimização é um ramo da matemática desenvolvido para encontrar as soluções óptimas, de entre todas as possíveis, para um determinado problema. Actualmente, são várias as técnicas de optimização aplicadas a problemas de engenharia, de informática e da indústria. Dada a grande panóplia de aplicações, existem inúmeros trabalhos publicados que propõem métodos para resolver, de forma óptima, problemas específicos. Esta dissertação foca-se na adaptação de dois algoritmos inspirados na natureza que, tendo como base técnicas de optimização, são capazes de calcular aproximações para zeros de polinómios e raízes de equações não lineares e sistemas de equações não lineares. Embora já existam muitos métodos iterativos para encontrar todas as raízes ou zeros de uma função, eles usualmente exigem: (a) deflações repetidas, que podem levar a resultados muito inexactos, devido ao problema da acumulação de erros de arredondamento a cada iteração; (b) boas aproximações iniciais para as raízes para o algoritmo convergir, ou (c) o cálculo de derivadas de primeira ou de segunda ordem que, além de ser computacionalmente intensivo, para muitas funções é impossível de se calcular. Estas desvantagens motivaram o uso da Optimização por Enxame de Partículas (PSO) e de Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNAs) para o cálculo de raízes. Estas técnicas são conhecidas, respectivamente, pela sua capacidade de explorar espaços de dimensão superior (não exigindo boas aproximações iniciais) e pela sua capacidade de modelar problemas complexos. Além disto, tais técnicas não necessitam de deflações repetidas, nem do cálculo de derivadas. Ao longo deste documento, os algoritmos são descritos e testados, usando um conjunto de problemas numéricos com aplicações nas ciências e na engenharia. Os resultados foram comparados com outros disponíveis na literatura e com o método de Durand–Kerner, e sugerem que ambos os algoritmos são capazes de resolver os problemas numéricos considerados

Financial Forecasting Using Evolutionary Computational Techniques

Financial forecasting or specially stock market prediction is one of the hottest field of research lately due to its commercial applications owing to high stakes and the kinds of attractive benefits that it has to offer. In this project we have analyzed various evolutionary computation algorithms for forecasting of financial data. The financial data has been taken from a large database and has been based on the stock prices in leading stock exchanges .We have based our models on data taken from Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), S&P500 (Standard and Poor’s) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We have designed three models and compared those using historical data from the three stock exchanges. The models used were based on: 1. Radial Basis Function parameters updated by Particle swarm optimization. 2. Radial Basis Function parameters updated by Least Mean Square Algorithm. 3. FLANN parameters updated by Particle Swarm optimization. The raw input for the experiment is the historical daily open, close, high, low and volume of the concerned index. However the actual input to the model was the parameters derived from these data. The results of the experiment have been depicted with the aid of suitable curves where a comparative analysis of the various models is done on the basis on various parameters including error convergence and the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE). Key Words: Radial Basis Functions, FLANN, PSO, LM

English character recognition algorithm by improving the weights of MLP neural network with dragonfly algorithm

Character Recognition (CR) is taken into consideration for years. Meanwhile, the neural network plays an important role in recognizing handwritten characters. Many character identification reports have been publishing in English, but still the minimum training timing and high accuracy of handwriting English symbols and characters by utilizing a method of neural networks are represents as open problems. Therefore, creating a character recognition system manually and automatically is very important. In this research, an attempt has been done to incubate an automatic symbols and character system for recognition for English with minimum training and a very high recognition accuracy and classification timing. In the proposed idea for improving the weights of the MLP neural network method in the process of teaching and learning character recognition, the dragonfly optimization algorithm has been used. The innovation of the proposed detection system is that with a combination of dragonfly optimization technique and MLP neural networks, the precisions of the system are recovered, and the computing time is minimized. The approach which was used in this study to identify English characters has high accuracy and minimum training time