Game-Theoretic and Machine-Learning Techniques for Cyber-Physical Security and Resilience in Smart Grid

The smart grid is the next-generation electrical infrastructure utilizing Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), whose architecture is evolving from a utility-centric structure to a distributed Cyber-Physical System (CPS) integrated with a large-scale of renewable energy resources. However, meeting reliability objectives in the smart grid becomes increasingly challenging owing to the high penetration of renewable resources and changing weather conditions. Moreover, the cyber-physical attack targeted at the smart grid has become a major threat because millions of electronic devices interconnected via communication networks expose unprecedented vulnerabilities, thereby increasing the potential attack surface. This dissertation is aimed at developing novel game-theoretic and machine-learning techniques for addressing the reliability and security issues residing at multiple layers of the smart grid, including power distribution system reliability forecasting, risk assessment of cyber-physical attacks targeted at the grid, and cyber attack detection in the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and renewable resources. This dissertation first comprehensively investigates the combined effect of various weather parameters on the reliability performance of the smart grid, and proposes a multilayer perceptron (MLP)-based framework to forecast the daily number of power interruptions in the distribution system using time series of common weather data. Regarding evaluating the risk of cyber-physical attacks faced by the smart grid, a stochastic budget allocation game is proposed to analyze the strategic interactions between a malicious attacker and the grid defender. A reinforcement learning algorithm is developed to enable the two players to reach a game equilibrium, where the optimal budget allocation strategies of the two players, in terms of attacking/protecting the critical elements of the grid, can be obtained. In addition, the risk of the cyber-physical attack can be derived based on the successful attack probability to various grid elements. Furthermore, this dissertation develops a multimodal data-driven framework for the cyber attack detection in the power distribution system integrated with renewable resources. This approach introduces the spare feature learning into an ensemble classifier for improving the detection efficiency, and implements the spatiotemporal correlation analysis for differentiating the attacked renewable energy measurements from fault scenarios. Numerical results based on the IEEE 34-bus system show that the proposed framework achieves the most accurate detection of cyber attacks reported in the literature. To address the electricity theft in the AMI, a Distributed Intelligent Framework for Electricity Theft Detection (DIFETD) is proposed, which is equipped with Benford’s analysis for initial diagnostics on large smart meter data. A Stackelberg game between utility and multiple electricity thieves is then formulated to model the electricity theft actions. Finally, a Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) is utilized to detect potentially fraudulent meters

Applied Metaheuristic Computing

For decades, Applied Metaheuristic Computing (AMC) has been a prevailing optimization technique for tackling perplexing engineering and business problems, such as scheduling, routing, ordering, bin packing, assignment, facility layout planning, among others. This is partly because the classic exact methods are constrained with prior assumptions, and partly due to the heuristics being problem-dependent and lacking generalization. AMC, on the contrary, guides the course of low-level heuristics to search beyond the local optimality, which impairs the capability of traditional computation methods. This topic series has collected quality papers proposing cutting-edge methodology and innovative applications which drive the advances of AMC

Advanced Occupancy Measurement Using Sensor Fusion

With roughly about half of the energy used in buildings attributed to Heating, Ventilation, and Air conditioning (HVAC) systems, there is clearly great potential for energy saving through improved building operations. Accurate knowledge of localised and real-time occupancy numbers can have compelling control applications for HVAC systems. However, existing technologies applied for building occupancy measurements are limited, such that a precise and reliable occupant count is difficult to obtain. For example, passive infrared (PIR) sensors commonly used for occupancy sensing in lighting control applications cannot differentiate between occupants grouped together, video sensing is often limited by privacy concerns, atmospheric gas sensors (such as CO2 sensors) may be affected by the presence of electromagnetic (EMI) interference, and may not show clear links between occupancy and sensor values. Past studies have indicated the need for a heterogeneous multi-sensory fusion approach for occupancy detection to address the short-comings of existing occupancy detection systems. The aim of this research is to develop an advanced instrumentation strategy to monitor occupancy levels in non-domestic buildings, whilst facilitating the lowering of energy use and also maintaining an acceptable indoor climate. Accordingly, a novel multi-sensor based approach for occupancy detection in open-plan office spaces is proposed. The approach combined information from various low-cost and non-intrusive indoor environmental sensors, with the aim to merge advantages of various sensors, whilst minimising their weaknesses. The proposed approach offered the potential for explicit information indicating occupancy levels to be captured. The proposed occupancy monitoring strategy has two main components; hardware system implementation and data processing. The hardware system implementation included a custom made sound sensor and refinement of CO2 sensors for EMI mitigation. Two test beds were designed and implemented for supporting the research studies, including proof-of-concept, and experimental studies. Data processing was carried out in several stages with the ultimate goal being to detect occupancy levels. Firstly, interested features were extracted from all sensory data collected, and then a symmetrical uncertainty analysis was applied to determine the predictive strength of individual sensor features. Thirdly, a candidate features subset was determined using a genetic based search. Finally, a back-propagation neural network model was adopted to fuse candidate multi-sensory features for estimation of occupancy levels. Several test cases were implemented to demonstrate and evaluate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed occupancy detection approach. Results have shown the potential of the proposed heterogeneous multi-sensor fusion based approach as an advanced strategy for the development of reliable occupancy detection systems in open-plan office buildings, which can be capable of facilitating improved control of building services. In summary, the proposed approach has the potential to: (1) Detect occupancy levels with an accuracy reaching 84.59% during occupied instances (2) capable of maintaining average occupancy detection accuracy of 61.01%, in the event of sensor failure or drop-off (such as CO2 sensors drop-off), (3) capable of utilising just sound and motion sensors for occupancy levels monitoring in a naturally ventilated space, (4) capable of facilitating potential daily energy savings reaching 53%, if implemented for occupancy-driven ventilation control

Tracking moving objects in surveillance video

The thesis looks at approaches to the detection and tracking of potential objects of interest in surveillance video. The aim was to investigate and develop methods that might be suitable for eventual application through embedded software, running on a fixed-point processor, in analytics capable cameras. The work considers common approaches to object detection and representation, seeking out those that offer the necessary computational economy and the potential to be able to cope with constraints such as low frame rate due to possible limited processor time, or weak chromatic content that can occur in some typical surveillance contexts. The aim is for probabilistic tracking of objects rather than simple concatenation of frame by frame detections. This involves using recursive Bayesian estimation. The particle filter is a technique for implementing such a recursion and so it is examined in the context of both single target and combined multi-target tracking. A detailed examination of the operation of the single target tracking particle filter shows that objects can be tracked successfully using a relatively simple structured grey-scale histogram representation. It is shown that basic components of the particle filter can be simplified without loss in tracking quality. An analysis brings out the relationships between commonly used target representation distance measures and shows that in the context of the particle filter there is little to choose between them. With the correct choice of parameters, the simplest and computationally economic distance measure performs well. The work shows how to make that correct choice. Similarly, it is shown that a simple measurement likelihood function can be used in place of the more ubiquitous Gaussian. The important step of target state estimation is examined. The standard weighted mean approach is rejected, a recently proposed maximum a posteriori approach is shown to be not suitable in the context of the work, and a practical alternative is developed. Two methods are presented for tracker initialization. One of them is a simplification of an existing published method, the other is a novel approach. The aim is to detect trackable objects as they enter the scene, extract trackable features, then actively follow those features through subsequent frames. The multi-target tracking problem is then posed as one of management of multiple independent trackers

Applied Methuerstic computing

For decades, Applied Metaheuristic Computing (AMC) has been a prevailing optimization technique for tackling perplexing engineering and business problems, such as scheduling, routing, ordering, bin packing, assignment, facility layout planning, among others. This is partly because the classic exact methods are constrained with prior assumptions, and partly due to the heuristics being problem-dependent and lacking generalization. AMC, on the contrary, guides the course of low-level heuristics to search beyond the local optimality, which impairs the capability of traditional computation methods. This topic series has collected quality papers proposing cutting-edge methodology and innovative applications which drive the advances of AMC

Predictive Modelling Approach to Data-Driven Computational Preventive Medicine

This thesis contributes novel predictive modelling approaches to data-driven computational preventive medicine and offers an alternative framework to statistical analysis in preventive medicine research. In the early parts of this research, this thesis presents research by proposing a synergy of machine learning methods for detecting patterns and developing inexpensive predictive models from healthcare data to classify the potential occurrence of adverse health events. In particular, the data-driven methodology is founded upon a heuristic-systematic assessment of several machine-learning methods, data preprocessing techniques, models’ training estimation and optimisation, and performance evaluation, yielding a novel computational data-driven framework, Octopus. Midway through this research, this thesis advances research in preventive medicine and data mining by proposing several new extensions in data preparation and preprocessing. It offers new recommendations for data quality assessment checks, a novel multimethod imputation (MMI) process for missing data mitigation, a novel imbalanced resampling approach, and minority pattern reconstruction (MPR) led by information theory. This thesis also extends the area of model performance evaluation with a novel classification performance ranking metric called XDistance. In particular, the experimental results show that building predictive models with the methods guided by our new framework (Octopus) yields domain experts' approval of the new reliable models’ performance. Also, performing the data quality checks and applying the MMI process led healthcare practitioners to outweigh predictive reliability over interpretability. The application of MPR and its hybrid resampling strategies led to better performances in line with experts' success criteria than the traditional imbalanced data resampling techniques. Finally, the use of the XDistance performance ranking metric was found to be more effective in ranking several classifiers' performances while offering an indication of class bias, unlike existing performance metrics The overall contributions of this thesis can be summarised as follow. First, several data mining techniques were thoroughly assessed to formulate the new Octopus framework to produce new reliable classifiers. In addition, we offer a further understanding of the impact of newly engineered features, the physical activity index (PAI) and biological effective dose (BED). Second, the newly developed methods within the new framework. Finally, the newly accepted developed predictive models help detect adverse health events, namely, visceral fat-associated diseases and advanced breast cancer radiotherapy toxicity side effects. These contributions could be used to guide future theories, experiments and healthcare interventions in preventive medicine and data mining