Diagnosis and Improvement of Cryosphere Shortwave Radiation Biases in Global Climate Models.

Faithful representation of cryospheric change is critical for accurate climate modeling, but there are complicating issues in representing snow extent and reflectance in physically realistic ways. This thesis is a collection of diagnostics and improvements of cryospheric shortwave radiation in climate models. Firstly, we incorporate a diagnostic called the cryosphere radiative effect (CrRE), the instantaneous influence of surface snow and sea ice on the top-of-model solar energy budget, into two released versions of the Community Earth System Model. CrRE offers a more climatically relevant metric of the cryospheric state than snow and sea ice extent and is influenced by factors such as the seasonal cycle of insolation, cloud masking, and vegetation cover. We evaluate CrRE during the late 20th century and over the 21st century, specifically diagnosing the CrRE contributions from terrestrial and marine sources. Present-day boreal CrRE compares well with observationally derived estimates. Similar present-day CrRE in the two model versions results from compensating differences in cloud masking and sea ice extent. Radiative forcing in future warming scenarios reduces boreal and austral sea ice cover, and boreal snow cover, which each contribute roughly 1 W/m-2 to enhancing global absorbed shortwave radiation. Similar global cryospheric albedo feedbacks between 0.41-0.45 W/m2/K indicate the models exhibit similar temperature-normalized CrRE change. Secondly, we incorporated a modified canopy scheme into the Community Land Model with snow interception as a prognostic variable and snow unloading tuned to in-situ measurements. The canopy radiation scheme has been updated from a direct temperature dependence of optical parameters to a dependence on the prognostic snow storage. With these improvements, boreal forest zones show large, significant albedo error reductions relative to MODIS observations. 13% gridcell RMSE reduction during spring results from a more gradual seasonal transition in albedo, while 27% reduction in winter is from a lower albedo. Over all North Hemisphere land area, error was also reduced. Thirdly, we assess the impacts of the snow canopy vegetation treatment in coupled model warming scenarios. Little change in global albedo feedback or climate sensitivity were shown, but significant alterations resulted that varied both regionally and temporally.PhDApplied PhysicsUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113453/1/perketj_1.pd

Evaluation of the atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice interface processes in the Regional Arctic System Model version 1 (RASM1) using local and globally gridded observations

The Regional Arctic System Model version 1 (RASM1) has been developed to provide high-resolution simulations of the Arctic atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–land system. Here, we provide a baseline for the capability of RASM to simulate interface processes by comparing retrospective simulations from RASM1 for 1990–2014 with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and the spread across three recent reanalyses. Evaluations of surface and 2 m air temperature, surface radiative and turbulent fluxes, precipitation, and snow depth in the various models and reanalyses are performed using global and regional datasets and a variety of in situ datasets, including flux towers over land, ship cruises over oceans, and a field experiment over sea ice. These evaluations reveal that RASM1 simulates precipitation that is similar to CESM1, reanalyses, and satellite gauge combined precipitation datasets over all river basins within the RASM domain. Snow depth in RASM is closer to upscaled surface observations over a flatter region than in more mountainous terrain in Alaska. The sea ice–atmosphere interface is well simulated in regards to radiation fluxes, which generally fall within observational uncertainty. RASM1 monthly mean surface temperature and radiation biases are shown to be due to biases in the simulated mean diurnal cycle. At some locations, a minimal monthly mean bias is shown to be due to the compensation of roughly equal but opposite biases between daytime and nighttime, whereas this is not the case at locations where the monthly mean bias is higher in magnitude. These biases are derived from errors in the diurnal cycle of the energy balance (radiative and turbulent flux) components. Therefore, the key to advancing the simulation of SAT and the surface energy budget would be to improve the representation of the diurnal cycle of radiative and turbulent fluxes. The development of RASM2 aims to address these biases. Still, an advantage of RASM1 is that it captures the interannual and interdecadal variability in the climate of the Arctic region, which global models like CESM cannot do

The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Overview and Evaluation at Standard Resolution

This work documents the first version of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) new Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). We focus on the standard resolution of the fully coupled physical model designed to address DOE mission-relevant water cycle questions. Its components include atmosphere and land (110-km grid spacing), ocean and sea ice (60 km in the midlatitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles), and river transport (55 km) models. This base configuration will also serve as a foundation for additional configurations exploring higher horizontal resolution as well as augmented capabilities in the form of biogeochemistry and cryosphere configurations. The performance of E3SMv1 is evaluated by means of a standard set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations consisting of a long preindustrial control, historical simulations (ensembles of fully coupled and prescribed SSTs) as well as idealized CO2 forcing simulations. The model performs well overall with biases typical of other CMIP-class models, although the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weaker than many CMIP-class models. While the E3SMv1 historical ensemble captures the bulk of the observed warming between preindustrial (1850) and present day, the trajectory of the warming diverges from observations in the second half of the twentieth century with a period of delayed warming followed by an excessive warming trend. Using a two-layer energy balance model, we attribute this divergence to the model’s strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (ERFari+aci = -1.65 W/m2) and high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS = 5.3 K).Plain Language SummaryThe U.S. Department of Energy funded the development of a new state-of-the-art Earth system model for research and applications relevant to its mission. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) consists of five interacting components for the global atmosphere, land surface, ocean, sea ice, and rivers. Three of these components (ocean, sea ice, and river) are new and have not been coupled into an Earth system model previously. The atmosphere and land surface components were created by extending existing components part of the Community Earth System Model, Version 1. E3SMv1’s capabilities are demonstrated by performing a set of standardized simulation experiments described by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima protocol at standard horizontal spatial resolution of approximately 1° latitude and longitude. The model reproduces global and regional climate features well compared to observations. Simulated warming between 1850 and 2015 matches observations, but the model is too cold by about 0.5 °C between 1960 and 1990 and later warms at a rate greater than observed. A thermodynamic analysis of the model’s response to greenhouse gas and aerosol radiative affects may explain the reasons for the discrepancy.Key PointsThis work documents E3SMv1, the first version of the U.S. DOE Energy Exascale Earth System ModelThe performance of E3SMv1 is documented with a set of standard CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations comprising nearly 3,000 yearsE3SMv1 has a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (5.3 K) and strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (-1.65 W/m2)Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151288/1/jame20860_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151288/2/jame20860.pd

Stratospheric Dynamical Response and Ozone Feedbacks in the Presence of SO_2 Injections

Injections of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere are among several proposed methods of solar radiation management. Such injections could cool the Earth's climate. However, they would significantly alter the dynamics of the stratosphere. We explore here the stratospheric dynamical response to sulfur dioxide injections ∼5 km above the tropopause at multiple latitudes (equator, 15°S, 15°N, 30°S and 30°N) using a fully coupled Earth system model, Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component (CESM1(WACCM)). We find that in all simulations, the tropical lower stratosphere warms primarily between 30°S and 30°N, regardless of injection latitude. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the tropical zonal wind is altered by the various sulfur dioxide injections. In a simulation with a 12 Tg yr^(−1) equatorial injection, and with fully interactive chemistry, the QBO period lengthens to ∼3.5 years but never completely disappears. However, in a simulation with specified (or noninteractive) chemical fields, including O_3 and prescribed aerosols taken from the interactive simulation, the oscillation is virtually lost. In addition, we find that geoengineering does not always lengthen the QBO. We further demonstrate that the QBO period changes from 24 to 12–17 months in simulations with sulfur dioxide injections placed poleward of the equator. Our study points to the importance of understanding and verifying of the complex interactions between aerosols, atmospheric dynamics, and atmospheric chemistry as well as understanding the effects of sulfur dioxide injections placed away from the Equator on the QBO

A New Ocean State After Nuclear War

Nuclear war would produce dire global consequences for humans and our environment. We simulated climate impacts of US-Russia and India-Pakistan nuclear wars in an Earth System Model, here, we report on the ocean impacts. Like volcanic eruptions and large forest fires, firestorms from nuclear war would transport light-blocking aerosols to the stratosphere, resulting in global cooling. The ocean responds over two timescales: a rapid cooling event and a long recovery, indicating a hysteresis response of the ocean to global cooling. Surface cooling drives sea ice expansion, enhanced meridional overturning, and intensified ocean vertical mixing that is expanded, deeper, and longer lasting. Phytoplankton production and community structure are highly modified by perturbations to light, temperature, and nutrients, resulting in initial decimation of production, especially at high latitudes. A new physical and biogeochemical ocean state results, characterized by shallower pycnoclines, thermoclines, and nutriclines, ventilated deep water masses, and thicker Arctic sea ice. Persistent changes in nutrient limitation drive a shift in phytoplankton community structure, resulting in increased diatom populations, which in turn increase iron scavenging and iron limitation, especially at high latitudes. In the largest US-Russia scenario (150 Tg), ocean recovery is likely on the order of decades at the surface and hundreds of years at depth, while changes to Arctic sea-ice will likely last thousands of years, effectively a “Nuclear Little Ice Age.” Marine ecosystems would be highly disrupted by both the initial perturbation and in the new ocean state, resulting in long-term, global impacts to ecosystem services such as fisheries.publishedVersio

Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

We present an overview of state-of-The-Art chemistry-climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI-1 recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain intermodel differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI-1 simulations with the aim of informing CCMI data users.This work has been supported by NIWA as part of its government-funded, core research. Olaf Morgenstern acknowledges support from the Royal Society Marsden Fund, grant 12-NIW-006, and under the Deep South National Science Challenge. The authors wish to acknowledge the contribution of NeSI high-performance computing facilities to the results of this research. New Zealand’s national facilities are provided by the New Zealand eScience Infrastructure (NeSI) and funded jointly by NeSI’s collaborator institutions and through the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment’s Research Infrastructure programme (https://www.nesi.org.nz). The SOCOL team acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation under grant agreement CRSII2_147659 (FUPSOL II). CCSRNIES’s research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1303) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and computations were performed on NEC-SX9/A(ECO) computers at the CGER, NIES. Wuhu Feng (NCAS) provided support for the TOMCAT simulations. Neal Butchart, Steven C. Hardiman, and Fiona M. O’Connor and the development of HadGEM3-ES were supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Neal Butchart and Steven C. Hardiman also acknowledge additional support from the European Project 603557-STRATOCLIM under the FP7-ENV.2013.6.1-2 programme. Fiona M. O’Connor acknowledges additional support from the Horizon 2020 European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation CRESCENDO project under grant agreement no. 641816. Slimane Bekki acknowledges support from the European Project 603557-STRATOCLIM under the FP7-ENV.2013.6.1-2 programme and from the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES, France) within the SOLSPEC project. Kane Stone and Robyn Schofield acknowledge funding from the Australian Government’s Australian Antarctic science grant program (FoRCES 4012), the Australian Research Council’s Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028), the Commonwealth Department of the Environment (grant 2011/16853), and computational support from National computational infrastructure INCMAS project q90. The CNRM-CM chemistry–climate people acknowledge the support from Météo-France, CNRS, and CERFACS, and in particular the work of the entire team in charge of the CNRM/CERFACS climate model

description and performance

We developed a coupled regional climate system model based on the CCLM regional climate model. Within this model system, using OASIS3-MCT as a coupler, CCLM can be coupled to two land surface models (the Community Land Model (CLM) and VEG3D), the NEMO-MED12 regional ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea, two ocean models for the North and Baltic seas (NEMO-NORDIC and TRIMNP+CICE) and the MPI-ESM Earth system model. We first present the different model components and the unified OASIS3-MCT interface which handles all couplings in a consistent way, minimising the model source code modifications and defining the physical and numerical aspects of the couplings. We also address specific coupling issues like the handling of different domains, multiple usage of the MCT library and exchange of 3-D fields. We analyse and compare the computational performance of the different couplings based on real-case simulations over Europe. The usage of the LUCIA tool implemented in OASIS3-MCT enables the quantification of the contributions of the coupled components to the overall coupling cost. These individual contributions are (1) cost of the model(s) coupled, (2) direct cost of coupling including horizontal interpolation and communication between the components, (3) load imbalance, (4) cost of different usage of processors by CCLM in coupled and stand-alone mode and (5) residual cost including i.a. CCLM additional computations. Finally a procedure for finding an optimum processor configuration for each of the couplings was developed considering the time to solution, computing cost and parallel efficiency of the simulation. The optimum configurations are presented for sequential, concurrent and mixed (sequential+concurrent) coupling layouts. The procedure applied can be regarded as independent of the specific coupling layout and coupling details. We found that the direct cost of coupling, i.e. communications and horizontal interpolation, in OASIS3-MCT remains below 7 % of the CCLM stand-alone cost for all couplings investigated. This is in particular true for the exchange of 450 2-D fields between CCLM and MPI-ESM. We identified remaining limitations in the coupling strategies and discuss possible future improvements of the computational efficiency

Sensitivity of Aerosol Distribution and Climate Response to Stratospheric SO_2 Injection Locations

Injection of SO_2 into the stratosphere has been proposed as a method to, in part, counteract anthropogenic climate change. So far, most studies investigated injections at the equator or in a region in the tropics. Here we use Community Earth System Model version 1 Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1(WACCM)) to explore the impact of continuous single grid point SO_2 injections at seven different latitudes and two altitudes in the stratosphere on aerosol distribution and climate. For each of the 14 locations, 3 different constant SO_2 emission rates were tested to identify linearity in aerosol burden, aerosol optical depth, and climate effects. We found that injections at 15°N and 15°S and at 25 km altitude have equal or greater effect on radiation and surface temperature than injections at the equator. Nonequatorial injections transport SO_2 and sulfate aerosols more efficiently into middle and high latitudes and result in particles of smaller effective radius and larger aerosol burden in middle and high latitudes. Injections at 15°S produce the largest increase in global average aerosol optical depth and increase the change in radiative forcing per Tg SO_2/yr by about 15% compared to equatorial injections. High-altitude injections at 15°N produce the largest reduction in global average temperature of 0.2° per Tg S/yr for the last 7 years of a 10 year experiment. Injections at higher altitude are generally more efficient at reducing surface temperature, with the exception of large equatorial injections of at least 12 Tg SO_2/yr. These findings have important implications for designing a strategy to counteract global climate change

Global Mean Climate and Main Patterns of Variability in the CMCC-CM2 Coupled Model

Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change coupled climate model (CMCC-CM2) represents the new family of the global coupled climate models developed and used at CMCC. It is based on the atmospheric, land and sea ice components from the Community Earth System Model coupled with the global ocean model Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean. This study documents the model components, the coupling strategy, particularly for the oceanic, atmospheric, and sea ice components, and the overall model ability in reproducing the observed mean climate and main patterns of interannual variability. As a first step toward a more comprehensive, process-oriented, validation of the model, this work analyzes a 200-year simulation performed under constant forcing corresponding to present-day climate conditions. In terms of mean climate, the model is able to realistically reproduce the main patterns of temperature, precipitation, and winds. Specifically, we report improvements in the representation of the sea surface temperature with respect to the previous version of the model. In terms of mean atmospheric circulation features, we notice a realistic simulation of upper tropospheric winds and midtroposphere geopotential eddies. The oceanic heat transport and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation satisfactorily compare with present-day observations and estimates from global ocean reanalyses. The sea ice patterns and associated seasonal variations are realistically reproduced in both hemispheres, with a better skill in winter. Main weaknesses of the simulated climate are related with the precipitation patterns, specifically in the tropical regions with large dry biases over the Amazon basin. Similarly, the seasonal precipitation associated with the monsoons, mostly over Asia, is weaker than observed. The main patterns of interannual variability in terms of dominant empirical orthogonal functions are faithfully reproduced, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere winter. In the tropics the main teleconnection patterns associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation and with the Indian Ocean Dipole are also in good agreement with observations